NFL Week 7 Top Bets on the Total Line

Through the first six weeks of the NFL regular season, the winning rate for betting the UNDER on the total line is 55.4%. Last Sunday, the first six games on the slate stayed UNDER the closing total line. The results of the next six games produced a pair of PUSHES with four games going OVER.

For the first time this season, I was under .500 with my Top 5 total line picks for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com at 2-3. That dropped my year to date record making these picks to 18-12. 

Looking to get back to my winning ways in Week 7, I have posted a brief preview of this Sunday's five picks courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, Oct. 24

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: UNDER 47.5

The Bengals have been one of the bigger surprises this season at 4-2 straight-up. They have also been a solid bet on the total line with five of the six games staying UNDER the closing line. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with an  even 3-3 mark on the total line.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of Cincinnati’s last six games on the road. It has also stayed UNDER in seven of Baltimore’s last 10 games overall. Defense should one again keep the scoring by both teams lower than expected in Sunday’s meeting.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: UNDER 42.5

The Jets are coming off their bye week with a 1-4 SU record in their first five games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of those five matchups behind an offense that is averaging 13.4 points per game. New England is coming off a tough overtime loss to Dallas to slip to 2-4 SU.

Look for another low-scoring battle on Sunday in this AFC East clash. New England should be able to keep the Jets’ offense close to its season scoring average. The total has stayed UNDER in six of New York’s last nine games.

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: OVER 44

Carolina’s fast 3-0 start has faded into a .500 record SU at 3-3. The Giants have only managed to score a combined 31 points in their last two games as part of a SU 1-5 start. However, they have given up 82 points combined in losses to Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams.

With each team’s defense struggling right now, points may be easier to come by on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings between these NFC foes. It has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in New York.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 50

The Lions are still looking for their first SU win of the year following more than a few tough losses. The Rams are on a roll at 5-1 coming off double-digit margins of victory in two of their last three SU wins. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of those first six games.

The total has now gone OVER in six of the Rams’ last eight games. With the offense playing at a high level, they could score close to 50 points on their own against Detroit. The big storyline in this game is LA quarterback Matthew Stafford playing against his old team.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 48

Chicago came up short against Green Bay last Sunday in a 24-14 loss as a 5.5-point home underdog. Tampa Bay started Week 6 off with a 28-22 win on the road against Philadelphia as a seven-point favorite. The Buccaneers have scored at least 24 points in five of their first six games.

The Bears’ defense will struggle to keep Tampa Bay out of the end zone this Sunday as road underdogs. The total has gone OVER in four of the Buccaneers’ first six games this year. It has gone OVER in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games against a NFC team.

 

 

Early Breeders' Cup Betting Previews for the Juvenile & Classic

 The following post was reprinted with permission from ScoresandStats.com

An Early Betting Preview of the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Classic

This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Del Mar Race Track in Southern California. The first five events featuring some of horse racing’s top juvenile colts and fillies will be held on Friday, Nov. 5. This includes the $2 million TVG Juvenile for the top two-year old colts in this year’s class. The total prize money on the line in those first five races is $7 million.

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup race card at Del Mar is filled with another nine major graded events. The total prize money up for grabs across those nine races is another $21 million. The top event during the two days of racing is the annual Breeders’ Cup Classic for the ‘best of the best’ in Thoroughbred horse racing.

The Longines Classic is open to Thoroughbreds three and older. It covers 1 ¼ miles in total length on the dirt track at Del Mar. The total prize money for this year’s Classic is $6 million.

For anyone looking to place a few fixed odds bets on this year’s Breeders’ Cup, most of the top-rated online sportsbooks have posted futures odds for most of the 14 events. While the actual field for each of these 14 races is still a work in progress, here is an early look at the favorites to win Friday’s BC Juvenile and Saturday’s BC Classic.

Friday, Nov. 5- Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The BC Juvenile covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. At the top of the futures board to win this race is Jack Christopher at +275 fixed betting odds. He is followed by Cornish (+300) and Major General (+400) in what should be a very competitive race among the class of this field.

Rattle N Roll is on the board at +500 odds with Pinehurst (+600) rounding out the top five. You could add in Rockerfeller at +800 odds to compete the list of the early contenders expected to dominate the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail.

Jack Christopher is trained by Chad Brown. The son of Munnings has already put together an impressive racing resume as a two year old. This is highlighted by a victory in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 2. He covered the mile on dirt in 1:37.31 past Commandperformance and Wit.

If Brown decides to run him in the BC Juvenile, look for this Kentucky-bred colt to open as the morning line favorite.

Cornish would be another solid pick to finish in the money in this race. Trained by Bob Baffert, he recently took first place in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Oct. 1. Against a strong field, he covered the 1 1/16 miles distance on dirt in 1:44.75.

Saturday, Nov. 6- Breeders’ Cup Classic

Essential Quality won last year’s BC Juvenile at Keeneland on his way to becoming the favorite to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He came up short in that race with a fourth-place finish. However, since the Derby, the son of Tapit has won three-straight major graded events.

Trained by Brian Cox, he has been opened as a +350 co-favorite to keep that streak alive by winning the BC Classic.

The other favorite on the futures board for this race is Knicks Go. Also trained by Cox, the son of Paynter recently turned some heads by winning the Grade 3 Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs on Oct. 2.

As a veteran five-year old horse bred in Maryland, Knicks Go won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His current winning streak in major graded events this year also stands at three.

The value pick on the early board could be Hot Rod Charlie at +750 odds. Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit is an interesting play at +1000 odds.

 

NFL Week 6 Top Bets on the Total Line

 With a 3-2 record in last week's Top 5 picks on the NFL total line, my overall record this season improved to 16-9. That equates to a respectable winning percentage of 64%. Each and every week of the NFL season, I dig through all the stats, facts and recent betting trends to come up with my five best plays on the total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com.

When you look at the overall results on the NFL total line for the first five weeks of the season, the betting edge leans towards the UNDER with a winning rate of 54.3%.

As far as betting the games against the spread, road underdogs have been the best bet with a winning rate of 60%. Underdogs in general have cashed winners 56.8 percent of the  time.

Staying true to these betting trends to kickoff Week 6, the Philadelphia Eagles covered as seven-point home underdogs on Thursday night in a 28-22 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total stayed UNDER 53 points in that game.

Moving to this Sunday's Top 5 bets on the total line, I reprinted a brief recap of each pick courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, October 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: UNDER 46

The Packers escaped with an overtime victory against Cincinnati to take the lead in the NFC North at 4-1 straight-up. However, Chicago kept pace with a big road win against Las Vegas to move to 3-2. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the combined 10 games played.

Scoring should be at a premium in this Sunday’s divisional matchup as well to keep the final tally lower than expected. The total has stayed UNDER in 15 of Chicago’s last 20 home games and in five of its last six games overall.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: OVER 47.5

The Rams have been off since last Thursday night after beating Seattle 26-17. At 4-1 SU on the year, the total has gone OVER in four of the five games. The 1-4 Giants lost their starting quarterback and running back in a 44-20 loss to Dallas.

Los Angeles could clear this total on its own in Sunday’s matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven road games. It has also gone OVER in four of its last five road games against the Giants.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: UNDER 47

The Vikings are 2-3 SU with the total staying UNDER in three of the five games. Following a 3-0 start, Carolina has lost its last two games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its first five outings. The Panthers were held to just 18 points in Sunday’s loss at home to Philadelphia.

Points could be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. Minnesota has scored a combined 26 points in its last two outings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of Carolina’s last six games at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: OVER 53.5

The Cardinals are the last remaining undefeated team at 5-0 SU with Sunday’s 17-10 victory at home over San Francisco. This was the first time they scored fewer than 30 points in this five-game run. Cleveland is 3-2 SU with the total going OVER in three of its first five games.

This is one of the highest total lines in Week 6 but the number is justified. Arizona’s offense should be back on track this Sunday after the Browns just gave up 47 points in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: UNDER 44.5

In one of the few divisional matchups on Sunday’s NFL slate, both teams are 3-2 coming into this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the 10 games combined. The Raiders were held to nine points in a sloppy loss to Chicago. The Broncos managed 19 points in a loss to Pittsburgh.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in Denver. It has also stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 14 of the Broncos’ last 18 conference games.

 

 

 

NFL Week 5 Top Bets on the Total Line

Road underdogs remain the hottest bet in the NFL through the first four weeks of the new season. They have a 62.5% winning rate against the closing spread. Underdogs in general have covered 58.5% of the time according to ScoresandStats.com.

As part of my NFL coverage for that popular sports betting site, I have been focused on the total line to come up with my Top 5 NFL OVER/UNDER picks each week. After going a solid 4-1 with last week's five total line bets, my record for the year now stands at 13-7.

Digging deep into the betting totals for this Sunday's games, I have come up with five more solid bets you can take to the bank. A brief highlight of each pick is copied below courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, Oct. 10

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 49.5

The Lions are still looking for their first straight-up victory of the year but they have remained competitive in all four losses. Minnesota has been hit or miss with a big upset over Seattle followed by last Sunday’s 14-7 loss to Cleveland.

Somebody has to win in this NFC North clash (or tie) but I am betting it will be a lower scoring game than the current total line suggests. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings in Minnesota. It has also stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 15 meetings overall.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: UNDER 48.5

Tennessee came up short against the New York Jets to fall to 2-2 SU overall. Jacksonville is another NFL team still looking for its first win of the year. The total has stayed UNDER in the Jaguars’ last three games with a combined total of 53 points scored.

Even though the total has gone OVER in eight of the Titans’ last nine road games, I am going with the UNDER in this Sunday’s road contest. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 11 meetings between these two AFC South foes in games played in Jacksonville.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: OVER 53

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out in its 2-2 SU start. It is suddenly in a must-win situation with Arizona going a perfect 4-0 out of the gate. The Cardinals put up 37 points in Sunday’s road win against the Los Angeles Rams. They have scored at least 31 points in all four victories.

The 49ers are going to have to keep pace on the scoreboard to win this game. The total may have stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Arizona but that will not be the case this time around. The total has gone OVER in six of the Cardinals’ last seven home games.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 51.5

The Giants earned their first victory of the season by stunning New Orleans on the road in a come-from-behind upset. The Cowboys have found their groove on offense with a combined 77 points in recent home victories over Philadelphia and Carolina.

The trends all point to another big day in Big D for the Cowboys’ offense. The total has gone OVER in their last five home games and it has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games overall. When it comes to this NFC East rivalry, the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 56

The game of the day in Week 5 is a Sunday Night showdown. Buffalo continues to roll after an opening day loss. Even though the Chiefs are 2-3, there has yet to be a defense that can keep them out of the endzone. The punters had the day off in Kansas City’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Buffalo. Yet, despite the fact that Sunday night’s total is set rather high, I am taking the bait and going with the OVER. This is more because of Kansas City’s defense than its offense.

 

NFL Week 4 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Heading into Sunday's games in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL regular season, I have gone 9-6 with my first three weeks of NFL total line picks for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com. I have been tasked with the challenge of coming up with five "best bets" each week for plays on the OVER or UNDER.

Overall, the total has stayed UNDER in 59.2% of the NFL games played this season as scoring has been at a premium in a number of contests. Through the first three weeks of games, underdogs have been an even stronger play with a 63.3 winning percentage against the spread.

My top five picks for this Sunday's slate of NFL games are a mixed bag covering a few big inter-division showdowns as well as Tom Brady's much anticipated return to Foxborough. Already posted on ScoresandStats.com, I have reprinted all five total line picks below:

Sunday, Oct. 3

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: UNDER 44

Detroit limps into this black & blue NFC North Division battle at 0-3 straight-up. After scoring 33 points in a loss to San Francisco, the Lions have combined for 34 points in their last two losses to Green Bay and Baltimore. The total has stayed UNDER in the Bears’ last two games.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in Chicago. It has also stayed UNDER in 15 of Chicago’s last 20 home games.

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: OVER 48

The Football Team just gave up 43 points in a lopsided road loss against Buffalo. A total of 59 points were scored the previous week in a one-point win over the New York Giants. Atlanta earned its first SU victory of the year after allowing a combined 80 points in its first two games.

Defense should take a backseat in this NFC matchup given all the points scored in earlier games. The total has gone OVER in four of Washington’s last five road games against the Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 50

This is a crucial divisional game for Seattle coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Minnesota. The Seahawks allowed a combined 63 points in those two setbacks. San Francisco was on the wrong end of a 30-28 home loss to Green Bay as a three-point favorite.

Recent trends favor a higher scoring game in this NFC West showdown. The total has gone OVER five of the previous six meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of San Francisco’s last six games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 53.5

The other half of the NFC West will square off against one another late Sunday afternoon with both the Cardinals and Rams 3-0 SU on the year. Arizona has scored a combined 103 points in victories against Tennessee, Minnesota and Jacksonville. LA has averaged 31.7 points per game in its first outings.

Recent trends in this divisional matchup actually favor a lower scoring contest than the current total line suggests. However, this is a brand new Rams’ offense with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Look for each team to have success scoring points on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: UNDER 49

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady returns to his old stomping grounds on Sunday night. While the Bucs have been lighting up the scoreboard as expected in their 2-1 SU start, defense may actually decide the outcome of this inter-conference clash.

The total has stayed UNDER in nine of New England’s last 11 games. It has stayed UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games played at home. The total has also stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games against a team from the NFC.

 

CFL Week 8 Preview, Picks & Best Bets

 The CFL got a later start than expected this year but the season is rolling along heading into the Week 8 schedule of games. This week's schedule got an earlier start than usual with a rare Wednesday night game. There are two more games on Friday night featuring a pair of divisional showdowns.

Each and every week of the 2021 CFL season, I dig deep into the stats, facts and recent betting trends to come up with a "best bet" for each contest. Working with Vegas Insider as a premier sports betting site, I have been covering football 'north of the border' for the past several years.

After going a perfect 4-0 with last week's CFL best bets, I am already off to a fast start this week with a winning play in Hamilton's 24-7 road win against Ottawa as a six-point favorite. Hopefully I can keep this winning streak going with my two Friday plays.

In the early game, Toronto hosts Montreal as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 48.5 points. Later Friday night, Saskatchewan goes on the road as a slight 1.5-point favorite to tangle with the rival BC Lions. The total line for that game is 47.5 points.

For my best bet picks in each of these games, please click through the following link to Vegas Insider's CFL coverage page.

                                      Vegas Insider CFL Weekly Previews, Free Picks & Betting Odds

NFL Week 3 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Moving into the third Sunday of NFL games during the 2021 regular season schedule, bets on the UNDER have paid off 53.1% of the time. While this is not a huge edge as compared to games going OVER the closing total line, it is still higher than the 52.4% breakeven point using the standard 10% sportsbook commission or juice charged to book a wager.

For the second week in a row, I went 3-2 with my top five NFL total plays for the popular sports betting website ScoresandStats.com. 

Each and every week of the 2021 NFL season, I dig deep into Sunday's schedule of games to come up five solid plays. They are normally posted on the site a few days before the games. I have also copied this week's top five plays below.

Sunday, September 26

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: OVER 48

This is a huge early season AFC South showdown for the 0-2 Colts. Quarterback Carson Wentz remains questionable mid-week but look for him to still play. Tennessee has split its first two games with last week’s stunning 33-30 upset over Seattle as a 6.5-point road underdog.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Colts’ last 15 games. It has gone OVER in six of their last seven games on the road. The total has also gone OVER in six of the Titans’ last seven divisional games and in four of their last five games against Indianapolis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 56

This AFC West showdown takes on some early importance with each of these teams coming off a loss. The Chargers fell to Dallas 20-17 as three-point home favorites. The Chiefs gave up 36 points in a loss to Baltimore after outlasting Cleveland 33-29 in Week 1.

Points should not be too hard to come by on Sunday despite the inflated total line for this divisional tilt. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chargers’ last 13 road games. It has also gone OVER in four of their last five road games against Kansas City.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 54.5

This is another game that should keep the scoreboard active through all four quarters. Tampa Bay has put up a combined 79 points in its first two game while allowing 54 points on defense. The Rams 2-0 with a total of 61 points in their two victories.

This is another inflated total line. However, it is still not set high enough given each team’s ability to score at will. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these two NFC foes. It has gone OVER in four of the Bucs’ last five games against the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 55.5

Seattle will look to bounce back from last week’s stunning loss with a much better effort on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota slipped to 0-2 with early losses to Cincinnati and Arizona. A loss this Sunday could send the Vikings on a long downward spiral this season.

This game has an inflated total line that will not be reached. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of the Seahawks’ last 11 games. It has stayed UNDER in five of their last six road games against Minnesota.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 47.5

Bettors are now wondering which Green Bay team will show up on Sunday night. The Packers scored three points against New Orleans in Week 1 and 35 points in Monday night’s win over Detroit. San Francisco is 2-0 with very different efforts on offense in each win.

You have to bet the trends in this NFL heavyweight showdown. The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 12 meetings. It has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings in San Francisco.