NFL Week 6 Top Bets on the Total Line

 With a 3-2 record in last week's Top 5 picks on the NFL total line, my overall record this season improved to 16-9. That equates to a respectable winning percentage of 64%. Each and every week of the NFL season, I dig through all the stats, facts and recent betting trends to come up with my five best plays on the total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com.

When you look at the overall results on the NFL total line for the first five weeks of the season, the betting edge leans towards the UNDER with a winning rate of 54.3%.

As far as betting the games against the spread, road underdogs have been the best bet with a winning rate of 60%. Underdogs in general have cashed winners 56.8 percent of the  time.

Staying true to these betting trends to kickoff Week 6, the Philadelphia Eagles covered as seven-point home underdogs on Thursday night in a 28-22 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total stayed UNDER 53 points in that game.

Moving to this Sunday's Top 5 bets on the total line, I reprinted a brief recap of each pick courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, October 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: UNDER 46

The Packers escaped with an overtime victory against Cincinnati to take the lead in the NFC North at 4-1 straight-up. However, Chicago kept pace with a big road win against Las Vegas to move to 3-2. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the combined 10 games played.

Scoring should be at a premium in this Sunday’s divisional matchup as well to keep the final tally lower than expected. The total has stayed UNDER in 15 of Chicago’s last 20 home games and in five of its last six games overall.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: OVER 47.5

The Rams have been off since last Thursday night after beating Seattle 26-17. At 4-1 SU on the year, the total has gone OVER in four of the five games. The 1-4 Giants lost their starting quarterback and running back in a 44-20 loss to Dallas.

Los Angeles could clear this total on its own in Sunday’s matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven road games. It has also gone OVER in four of its last five road games against the Giants.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: UNDER 47

The Vikings are 2-3 SU with the total staying UNDER in three of the five games. Following a 3-0 start, Carolina has lost its last two games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its first five outings. The Panthers were held to just 18 points in Sunday’s loss at home to Philadelphia.

Points could be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. Minnesota has scored a combined 26 points in its last two outings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of Carolina’s last six games at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: OVER 53.5

The Cardinals are the last remaining undefeated team at 5-0 SU with Sunday’s 17-10 victory at home over San Francisco. This was the first time they scored fewer than 30 points in this five-game run. Cleveland is 3-2 SU with the total going OVER in three of its first five games.

This is one of the highest total lines in Week 6 but the number is justified. Arizona’s offense should be back on track this Sunday after the Browns just gave up 47 points in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: UNDER 44.5

In one of the few divisional matchups on Sunday’s NFL slate, both teams are 3-2 coming into this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the 10 games combined. The Raiders were held to nine points in a sloppy loss to Chicago. The Broncos managed 19 points in a loss to Pittsburgh.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in Denver. It has also stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 14 of the Broncos’ last 18 conference games.