NFL Week 5 Top Bets on the Total Line

Road underdogs remain the hottest bet in the NFL through the first four weeks of the new season. They have a 62.5% winning rate against the closing spread. Underdogs in general have covered 58.5% of the time according to ScoresandStats.com.

As part of my NFL coverage for that popular sports betting site, I have been focused on the total line to come up with my Top 5 NFL OVER/UNDER picks each week. After going a solid 4-1 with last week's five total line bets, my record for the year now stands at 13-7.

Digging deep into the betting totals for this Sunday's games, I have come up with five more solid bets you can take to the bank. A brief highlight of each pick is copied below courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, Oct. 10

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 49.5

The Lions are still looking for their first straight-up victory of the year but they have remained competitive in all four losses. Minnesota has been hit or miss with a big upset over Seattle followed by last Sunday’s 14-7 loss to Cleveland.

Somebody has to win in this NFC North clash (or tie) but I am betting it will be a lower scoring game than the current total line suggests. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings in Minnesota. It has also stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 15 meetings overall.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: UNDER 48.5

Tennessee came up short against the New York Jets to fall to 2-2 SU overall. Jacksonville is another NFL team still looking for its first win of the year. The total has stayed UNDER in the Jaguars’ last three games with a combined total of 53 points scored.

Even though the total has gone OVER in eight of the Titans’ last nine road games, I am going with the UNDER in this Sunday’s road contest. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 11 meetings between these two AFC South foes in games played in Jacksonville.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: OVER 53

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out in its 2-2 SU start. It is suddenly in a must-win situation with Arizona going a perfect 4-0 out of the gate. The Cardinals put up 37 points in Sunday’s road win against the Los Angeles Rams. They have scored at least 31 points in all four victories.

The 49ers are going to have to keep pace on the scoreboard to win this game. The total may have stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Arizona but that will not be the case this time around. The total has gone OVER in six of the Cardinals’ last seven home games.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 51.5

The Giants earned their first victory of the season by stunning New Orleans on the road in a come-from-behind upset. The Cowboys have found their groove on offense with a combined 77 points in recent home victories over Philadelphia and Carolina.

The trends all point to another big day in Big D for the Cowboys’ offense. The total has gone OVER in their last five home games and it has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games overall. When it comes to this NFC East rivalry, the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 56

The game of the day in Week 5 is a Sunday Night showdown. Buffalo continues to roll after an opening day loss. Even though the Chiefs are 2-3, there has yet to be a defense that can keep them out of the endzone. The punters had the day off in Kansas City’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Buffalo. Yet, despite the fact that Sunday night’s total is set rather high, I am taking the bait and going with the OVER. This is more because of Kansas City’s defense than its offense.