NFL Week 4 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Heading into Sunday's games in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL regular season, I have gone 9-6 with my first three weeks of NFL total line picks for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com. I have been tasked with the challenge of coming up with five "best bets" each week for plays on the OVER or UNDER.

Overall, the total has stayed UNDER in 59.2% of the NFL games played this season as scoring has been at a premium in a number of contests. Through the first three weeks of games, underdogs have been an even stronger play with a 63.3 winning percentage against the spread.

My top five picks for this Sunday's slate of NFL games are a mixed bag covering a few big inter-division showdowns as well as Tom Brady's much anticipated return to Foxborough. Already posted on ScoresandStats.com, I have reprinted all five total line picks below:

Sunday, Oct. 3

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: UNDER 44

Detroit limps into this black & blue NFC North Division battle at 0-3 straight-up. After scoring 33 points in a loss to San Francisco, the Lions have combined for 34 points in their last two losses to Green Bay and Baltimore. The total has stayed UNDER in the Bears’ last two games.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in Chicago. It has also stayed UNDER in 15 of Chicago’s last 20 home games.

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: OVER 48

The Football Team just gave up 43 points in a lopsided road loss against Buffalo. A total of 59 points were scored the previous week in a one-point win over the New York Giants. Atlanta earned its first SU victory of the year after allowing a combined 80 points in its first two games.

Defense should take a backseat in this NFC matchup given all the points scored in earlier games. The total has gone OVER in four of Washington’s last five road games against the Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 50

This is a crucial divisional game for Seattle coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Minnesota. The Seahawks allowed a combined 63 points in those two setbacks. San Francisco was on the wrong end of a 30-28 home loss to Green Bay as a three-point favorite.

Recent trends favor a higher scoring game in this NFC West showdown. The total has gone OVER five of the previous six meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of San Francisco’s last six games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 53.5

The other half of the NFC West will square off against one another late Sunday afternoon with both the Cardinals and Rams 3-0 SU on the year. Arizona has scored a combined 103 points in victories against Tennessee, Minnesota and Jacksonville. LA has averaged 31.7 points per game in its first outings.

Recent trends in this divisional matchup actually favor a lower scoring contest than the current total line suggests. However, this is a brand new Rams’ offense with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Look for each team to have success scoring points on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: UNDER 49

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady returns to his old stomping grounds on Sunday night. While the Bucs have been lighting up the scoreboard as expected in their 2-1 SU start, defense may actually decide the outcome of this inter-conference clash.

The total has stayed UNDER in nine of New England’s last 11 games. It has stayed UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games played at home. The total has also stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games against a team from the NFC.