NFL Week 3 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Moving into the third Sunday of NFL games during the 2021 regular season schedule, bets on the UNDER have paid off 53.1% of the time. While this is not a huge edge as compared to games going OVER the closing total line, it is still higher than the 52.4% breakeven point using the standard 10% sportsbook commission or juice charged to book a wager.

For the second week in a row, I went 3-2 with my top five NFL total plays for the popular sports betting website ScoresandStats.com. 

Each and every week of the 2021 NFL season, I dig deep into Sunday's schedule of games to come up five solid plays. They are normally posted on the site a few days before the games. I have also copied this week's top five plays below.

Sunday, September 26

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: OVER 48

This is a huge early season AFC South showdown for the 0-2 Colts. Quarterback Carson Wentz remains questionable mid-week but look for him to still play. Tennessee has split its first two games with last week’s stunning 33-30 upset over Seattle as a 6.5-point road underdog.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Colts’ last 15 games. It has gone OVER in six of their last seven games on the road. The total has also gone OVER in six of the Titans’ last seven divisional games and in four of their last five games against Indianapolis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 56

This AFC West showdown takes on some early importance with each of these teams coming off a loss. The Chargers fell to Dallas 20-17 as three-point home favorites. The Chiefs gave up 36 points in a loss to Baltimore after outlasting Cleveland 33-29 in Week 1.

Points should not be too hard to come by on Sunday despite the inflated total line for this divisional tilt. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chargers’ last 13 road games. It has also gone OVER in four of their last five road games against Kansas City.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 54.5

This is another game that should keep the scoreboard active through all four quarters. Tampa Bay has put up a combined 79 points in its first two game while allowing 54 points on defense. The Rams 2-0 with a total of 61 points in their two victories.

This is another inflated total line. However, it is still not set high enough given each team’s ability to score at will. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these two NFC foes. It has gone OVER in four of the Bucs’ last five games against the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 55.5

Seattle will look to bounce back from last week’s stunning loss with a much better effort on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota slipped to 0-2 with early losses to Cincinnati and Arizona. A loss this Sunday could send the Vikings on a long downward spiral this season.

This game has an inflated total line that will not be reached. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of the Seahawks’ last 11 games. It has stayed UNDER in five of their last six road games against Minnesota.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 47.5

Bettors are now wondering which Green Bay team will show up on Sunday night. The Packers scored three points against New Orleans in Week 1 and 35 points in Monday night’s win over Detroit. San Francisco is 2-0 with very different efforts on offense in each win.

You have to bet the trends in this NFL heavyweight showdown. The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 12 meetings. It has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings in San Francisco.