NFL Week 1 Top Bets on the Total Line

 As part of my weekly coverage of the NFL 2021 regular season for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, I will be posting my top five plays on each Sunday's total line. Heading into Week 1, I have reposted my 'best bet' picks from the site:

Sunday, Sept. 12

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 48

The Eagles start the season with a new head coach and starting quarterback after slipping to just four straight-up wins last season. The Falcons still have veteran gunslinger Matt Ryan under center as one of the more prolific passers in the NFL.

The betting consensus leans slightly towards the OVER in this NFC matchup but I am not quite sure the final combined score adds up to more than 48 points. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings in Atlanta. It has also stayed UNDER in the last five meetings overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: UNDER 48.5

Pittsburgh is the third choice in the AFC North Division title race with Ben Roethlisberger still at the helm as the starting quarterback. Josh Allen and the high-flying Bills are a popular choice to win the AFC title this season.

This is another game were the early lean goes slightly towards the OVER. While Buffalo should be able to put points on the board, Pittsburgh could struggle on offense. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in this AFC clash. It has also stayed UNDER in six of Buffalo’s last eight season openers.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 53

The featured AFC showdown in Week 1 could be filled with fireworks at Arrowhead Stadium. Cleveland is another team with strong aspirations for a Super Bowl run. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is looking for a fast start after last year’s nine-point effort in Super Bowl LV.

This game has one of the strongest leans towards the OVER on an already inflated 53-point total line. However, I am taking the bait. The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs last five season openers. It has gone OVER in 14 of their last 20 September games.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: OVER 50

This game has been moved to Jacksonville in the wake of Hurricane Ida. That could be a welcomed distraction for New Orleans while the pressure will be dialed up on Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers to get out of the gate quickly with a fast start.

With the total set at 50, the early money has gone towards the OVER. Jameis Winston takes over as the Saints’ starting quarterback for the retired Drew Brees and I think he will have some success scoring points against the Packers this Sunday afternoon. The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 10 meetings in this NFC tilt.

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: UNDER 44

The final Sunday game in Week 1 marks the debut of veteran Andy Daulton for the Bears and Matthew Stafford for the Rams as each team’s new starting quarterback. However, the play of each team’s defense could determine the ultimate outcome.

There is a strong consensus towards the UNDER in this game and I tend to agree. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the Rams’ last 15 games. It has also stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between these two NFC foes.