NFL Week 10 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Through the first nine weeks of the NFL regular season, underdogs have been able to cover the spread 58.5% of the time. The best best on the board has been underdogs playing on the road with a 62.2 winning percentage ATS.

Betting the NFL total line in those same games still favors the UNDER. The total has stayed UNDER 55.1% of the time. 

Underdogs and UNDERs play right into the strong suit of online sportsbooks since the betting public always has a strong lean towards favorites and OVER in the total line. The Oddsmakers continue to adjust accordingly but there is still value to be found taking the points while betting on a lower score than expected.

All season long, I have been posting my Top 5 NFL total line bets at the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com. 

Courtesy of that site, I have reprinted this Sunday's top five total line plays below:

Sunday, Nov. 15

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 52

The Falcons stay on the road after upsetting the New Orleans Saints 27-25 as 6.5-point underdogs. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game of the year with a stunning 30-16 loss to Denver.

The Cowboys will be looking the right the ship this Sunday but look for Atlanta to keep this game close. The total has gone OVER in four of the Falcons’ last five road games. Head-to-head, it has gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: OVER 47.5

The Bills are another team coming off an ugly loss. One of the highest scoring teams in the NFL was held to just six points in the loss to Jacksonville. The total has gone OVER in the Jets’ last five games.

Buffalo could score 48 points on its own in this game. The total has gone OVER in nine of the Bills’ last 13 road games. It has gone OVER in six of New York’s last nine November games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: OVER 51.5

Both of these teams are coming off a Week 9 bye. Tampa Bay gave up 36 points to New Orleans in a loss its last time out. Washington brings a straight-up four game losing streak into this NFC clash.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven conference games. It has also gone OVER in four of Washington’s last five games against a team from the NFC. Given the week’s rest, look for Tampa Bay’s offense to have a big day.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: UNDER 44

Cleveland exploded for 41 points in Sunday’s road win against rival Cincinnati. However, the Browns scored a combined 41 points in their previous three matchups. New England only allowed six points in Sunday’s road win at Carolina.

This game has the making of a grinder between two AFC teams coming off strong defensive efforts. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Cleveland’s last seven games against a team from the AFC East.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: UNDER 51.5

It was not pretty, but Kansas City was able to get by Green Bay 13-7 after scoring a combined 23 points in its previous two games. The Raiders stumbled against the New York Giants last Sunday as three-point road favorites in a 23-16 loss.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the previous 10 meetings in this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Chiefs’ last five games overall. The betting line for this Sunday’s matchup could be set a bit too high given the current form of each team’s offense.

 

 

 

NFL Week 9 Top Bets on the Total Line

 As the 2021 NFL regular season approaches the halfway mark of the 18-week schedule, betting the UNDER on the total line has been a solid bet with a winning rate of 54.9%. 

Each and every week of the season, I come up with my Top 5 plays on Sunday's NFL total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com.

Courtesy of this site, I have reprinted this Sunday's total line picks below:

Sunday, Nov. 7

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: UNDER 45.5

Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to Carolina heading into another key NFC South matchup. New Orleans is flying high after upsetting Tampa Bay as a home underdog. The total has gone OVER in three of the Saints’ last four games.

This could be a lower scoring game than expected. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings between these division rivals. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in New Orleans.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: UNDER 46

This should be a tough, hard fought battle between two AFC North rivals coming off a bad loss. Cleveland has lost three of its last four games scoring fewer than 17 points in each of its last three outings.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Browns’ last six games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of Cincinnati’s last seven matchups. With each team in desperate need of a win, look for defense to dictate play in this divisional showdown.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: OVER 45.5

The Texans rallied to make last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams competitive in the final score. However, they are now 1-7 straight-up on the year. Miami’s losing streak reached seven games with the loss to Buffalo.

Something has to give in this one. While neither team’s offense is all that exciting, they should be able to put points on the board given just how bad both these teams have played on defense. The total has gone OVER in five of Houston’s last seven conference games.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: UNDER 47

The Cardinals are coming off last Thursday’s loss to Green Bay. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. San Francisco snapped a four-game losing streak by outscoring Chicago 33-22 in Week 8.

The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC West rivals. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the Cardinals’ last six conference games and in four of San Francisco’s last five games against a NFC team.

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: OVER 50.5

The Chargers have lost their last two games while giving up a combined 61 points. Philadelphia just played its best game of the season in a 44-6 rout over Detroit. The total has gone OVER in four of the Eagles’ last six games.

Neither of these teams have played consistent on defense which should lead to quite a few points being scored in Sunday’s inter-conference clash. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chargers’ last 15 games in Week 9 of the season. It has gone OVER in seven of Philadelphia’s last eight games against a team from the AFC.

 

 

 

NFL Week 8 Top Bets on the Total Line

 The 2021 NFL regular season presses on heading into Week 8. The Arizona Cardinals remain the only undefeated team in league at 7-0 straight-up. The surprising Cardinals have also been a great betting team at 6-1 against the spread.

When betting the NFL total line, the best bet on the OVER has been the Dallas Cowboys with five of their first six games going OVER the closing betting line. The best team for betting the UNDER on the NFL total line has been the Chicago Bears. Through seven games played, six of the Bears first seven games have stayed UNDER the closing line.

Betting the UNDER in general has paid off 54.5% of the time. The betting trends have been evening themselves out in recent weeks with the Oddsmakers sharpening their skills for setting both point spreads and total lines.

Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I dig deep into all the stats, facts and recent betting trends to come up with my Top 5 "Best Bets" on the total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandSats.com.

Below are  my five picks for this upcoming Sunday's slate of games as a reprint courtesy of ScoresandStats.com

Sunday, Oct. 31

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: OVER 49.5

Miami has lost its last six games straight-up starting with a 35-0 loss to Buffalo in Week 2. The Bills are coming off their bye week at 4-2 both SU and against the spread. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games.

The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Buffalo. It has also gone OVER in five of the last six games overall between these two AFC East rivals. Look for Miami to score enough points this time around to take the total OVER again.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: OVER 48.5

The Titans stunned Kansas City last Sunday to move to 5-2 both SU and ATS. Indianapolis has now won three of its last four games with the total going OVER in three of those contests. The Colts have scored 61 points combined in their last two games.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee’s last 16 games and it has gone OVER in its last five road games. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings between these two division rivals.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: UNDER 43.5

Pittsburgh is coming off its bye week at an even 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) on the year. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in five of those six games. Cleveland grinded out a 17-14 win over Denver with quarterback Baker Mayfield out of the lineup.

Each of these team’s offense could have a tough time putting points on the board in this AFC North battle. Mayfield remains questionable on the current injury report. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in Cleveland.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 47

Carolina is mired in a four-game losing streak after starting the season 3-0. Quarterback Sam Darnold was benched in last week’s loss to the New York Giants. The Falcons have won three of their last four games both SU and ATS.

The total has stayed UNDER in eight of Carolina’s last 10 games overall and it four of the Panthers’ last five road games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in this NFC South clash.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: OVER 53.5

Dallas went into last week’s bye at 5-1 SU (6-0 ATS). The total has gone OVER in five of those six games. Minnesota is also coming off a bye after winning three of its four previous games. The Vikings put up a combined 64 points in wins over Seattle and Carolina during that run.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine NFC games. It has gone OVER in their last five games against a team from the NFC North. The total has gone OVER in six of the Vikings’ last nine games.

 

 

NFL Week 7 Top Bets on the Total Line

Through the first six weeks of the NFL regular season, the winning rate for betting the UNDER on the total line is 55.4%. Last Sunday, the first six games on the slate stayed UNDER the closing total line. The results of the next six games produced a pair of PUSHES with four games going OVER.

For the first time this season, I was under .500 with my Top 5 total line picks for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com at 2-3. That dropped my year to date record making these picks to 18-12. 

Looking to get back to my winning ways in Week 7, I have posted a brief preview of this Sunday's five picks courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, Oct. 24

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: UNDER 47.5

The Bengals have been one of the bigger surprises this season at 4-2 straight-up. They have also been a solid bet on the total line with five of the six games staying UNDER the closing line. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with an  even 3-3 mark on the total line.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of Cincinnati’s last six games on the road. It has also stayed UNDER in seven of Baltimore’s last 10 games overall. Defense should one again keep the scoring by both teams lower than expected in Sunday’s meeting.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: UNDER 42.5

The Jets are coming off their bye week with a 1-4 SU record in their first five games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of those five matchups behind an offense that is averaging 13.4 points per game. New England is coming off a tough overtime loss to Dallas to slip to 2-4 SU.

Look for another low-scoring battle on Sunday in this AFC East clash. New England should be able to keep the Jets’ offense close to its season scoring average. The total has stayed UNDER in six of New York’s last nine games.

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: OVER 44

Carolina’s fast 3-0 start has faded into a .500 record SU at 3-3. The Giants have only managed to score a combined 31 points in their last two games as part of a SU 1-5 start. However, they have given up 82 points combined in losses to Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams.

With each team’s defense struggling right now, points may be easier to come by on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings between these NFC foes. It has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in New York.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams: OVER 50

The Lions are still looking for their first SU win of the year following more than a few tough losses. The Rams are on a roll at 5-1 coming off double-digit margins of victory in two of their last three SU wins. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of those first six games.

The total has now gone OVER in six of the Rams’ last eight games. With the offense playing at a high level, they could score close to 50 points on their own against Detroit. The big storyline in this game is LA quarterback Matthew Stafford playing against his old team.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 48

Chicago came up short against Green Bay last Sunday in a 24-14 loss as a 5.5-point home underdog. Tampa Bay started Week 6 off with a 28-22 win on the road against Philadelphia as a seven-point favorite. The Buccaneers have scored at least 24 points in five of their first six games.

The Bears’ defense will struggle to keep Tampa Bay out of the end zone this Sunday as road underdogs. The total has gone OVER in four of the Buccaneers’ first six games this year. It has gone OVER in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games against a NFC team.

 

 

Early Breeders' Cup Betting Previews for the Juvenile & Classic

 The following post was reprinted with permission from ScoresandStats.com

An Early Betting Preview of the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile & Classic

This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Del Mar Race Track in Southern California. The first five events featuring some of horse racing’s top juvenile colts and fillies will be held on Friday, Nov. 5. This includes the $2 million TVG Juvenile for the top two-year old colts in this year’s class. The total prize money on the line in those first five races is $7 million.

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup race card at Del Mar is filled with another nine major graded events. The total prize money up for grabs across those nine races is another $21 million. The top event during the two days of racing is the annual Breeders’ Cup Classic for the ‘best of the best’ in Thoroughbred horse racing.

The Longines Classic is open to Thoroughbreds three and older. It covers 1 ¼ miles in total length on the dirt track at Del Mar. The total prize money for this year’s Classic is $6 million.

For anyone looking to place a few fixed odds bets on this year’s Breeders’ Cup, most of the top-rated online sportsbooks have posted futures odds for most of the 14 events. While the actual field for each of these 14 races is still a work in progress, here is an early look at the favorites to win Friday’s BC Juvenile and Saturday’s BC Classic.

Friday, Nov. 5- Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The BC Juvenile covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. At the top of the futures board to win this race is Jack Christopher at +275 fixed betting odds. He is followed by Cornish (+300) and Major General (+400) in what should be a very competitive race among the class of this field.

Rattle N Roll is on the board at +500 odds with Pinehurst (+600) rounding out the top five. You could add in Rockerfeller at +800 odds to compete the list of the early contenders expected to dominate the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail.

Jack Christopher is trained by Chad Brown. The son of Munnings has already put together an impressive racing resume as a two year old. This is highlighted by a victory in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 2. He covered the mile on dirt in 1:37.31 past Commandperformance and Wit.

If Brown decides to run him in the BC Juvenile, look for this Kentucky-bred colt to open as the morning line favorite.

Cornish would be another solid pick to finish in the money in this race. Trained by Bob Baffert, he recently took first place in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Oct. 1. Against a strong field, he covered the 1 1/16 miles distance on dirt in 1:44.75.

Saturday, Nov. 6- Breeders’ Cup Classic

Essential Quality won last year’s BC Juvenile at Keeneland on his way to becoming the favorite to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He came up short in that race with a fourth-place finish. However, since the Derby, the son of Tapit has won three-straight major graded events.

Trained by Brian Cox, he has been opened as a +350 co-favorite to keep that streak alive by winning the BC Classic.

The other favorite on the futures board for this race is Knicks Go. Also trained by Cox, the son of Paynter recently turned some heads by winning the Grade 3 Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs on Oct. 2.

As a veteran five-year old horse bred in Maryland, Knicks Go won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His current winning streak in major graded events this year also stands at three.

The value pick on the early board could be Hot Rod Charlie at +750 odds. Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit is an interesting play at +1000 odds.

 

NFL Week 6 Top Bets on the Total Line

 With a 3-2 record in last week's Top 5 picks on the NFL total line, my overall record this season improved to 16-9. That equates to a respectable winning percentage of 64%. Each and every week of the NFL season, I dig through all the stats, facts and recent betting trends to come up with my five best plays on the total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com.

When you look at the overall results on the NFL total line for the first five weeks of the season, the betting edge leans towards the UNDER with a winning rate of 54.3%.

As far as betting the games against the spread, road underdogs have been the best bet with a winning rate of 60%. Underdogs in general have cashed winners 56.8 percent of the  time.

Staying true to these betting trends to kickoff Week 6, the Philadelphia Eagles covered as seven-point home underdogs on Thursday night in a 28-22 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total stayed UNDER 53 points in that game.

Moving to this Sunday's Top 5 bets on the total line, I reprinted a brief recap of each pick courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, October 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: UNDER 46

The Packers escaped with an overtime victory against Cincinnati to take the lead in the NFC North at 4-1 straight-up. However, Chicago kept pace with a big road win against Las Vegas to move to 3-2. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the combined 10 games played.

Scoring should be at a premium in this Sunday’s divisional matchup as well to keep the final tally lower than expected. The total has stayed UNDER in 15 of Chicago’s last 20 home games and in five of its last six games overall.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: OVER 47.5

The Rams have been off since last Thursday night after beating Seattle 26-17. At 4-1 SU on the year, the total has gone OVER in four of the five games. The 1-4 Giants lost their starting quarterback and running back in a 44-20 loss to Dallas.

Los Angeles could clear this total on its own in Sunday’s matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven road games. It has also gone OVER in four of its last five road games against the Giants.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: UNDER 47

The Vikings are 2-3 SU with the total staying UNDER in three of the five games. Following a 3-0 start, Carolina has lost its last two games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its first five outings. The Panthers were held to just 18 points in Sunday’s loss at home to Philadelphia.

Points could be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. Minnesota has scored a combined 26 points in its last two outings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of Carolina’s last six games at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: OVER 53.5

The Cardinals are the last remaining undefeated team at 5-0 SU with Sunday’s 17-10 victory at home over San Francisco. This was the first time they scored fewer than 30 points in this five-game run. Cleveland is 3-2 SU with the total going OVER in three of its first five games.

This is one of the highest total lines in Week 6 but the number is justified. Arizona’s offense should be back on track this Sunday after the Browns just gave up 47 points in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: UNDER 44.5

In one of the few divisional matchups on Sunday’s NFL slate, both teams are 3-2 coming into this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the 10 games combined. The Raiders were held to nine points in a sloppy loss to Chicago. The Broncos managed 19 points in a loss to Pittsburgh.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in Denver. It has also stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 14 of the Broncos’ last 18 conference games.

 

 

 

NFL Week 5 Top Bets on the Total Line

Road underdogs remain the hottest bet in the NFL through the first four weeks of the new season. They have a 62.5% winning rate against the closing spread. Underdogs in general have covered 58.5% of the time according to ScoresandStats.com.

As part of my NFL coverage for that popular sports betting site, I have been focused on the total line to come up with my Top 5 NFL OVER/UNDER picks each week. After going a solid 4-1 with last week's five total line bets, my record for the year now stands at 13-7.

Digging deep into the betting totals for this Sunday's games, I have come up with five more solid bets you can take to the bank. A brief highlight of each pick is copied below courtesy of ScoresandStats.com.

Sunday, Oct. 10

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 49.5

The Lions are still looking for their first straight-up victory of the year but they have remained competitive in all four losses. Minnesota has been hit or miss with a big upset over Seattle followed by last Sunday’s 14-7 loss to Cleveland.

Somebody has to win in this NFC North clash (or tie) but I am betting it will be a lower scoring game than the current total line suggests. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings in Minnesota. It has also stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 15 meetings overall.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: UNDER 48.5

Tennessee came up short against the New York Jets to fall to 2-2 SU overall. Jacksonville is another NFL team still looking for its first win of the year. The total has stayed UNDER in the Jaguars’ last three games with a combined total of 53 points scored.

Even though the total has gone OVER in eight of the Titans’ last nine road games, I am going with the UNDER in this Sunday’s road contest. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 11 meetings between these two AFC South foes in games played in Jacksonville.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: OVER 53

San Francisco has been a tough team to figure out in its 2-2 SU start. It is suddenly in a must-win situation with Arizona going a perfect 4-0 out of the gate. The Cardinals put up 37 points in Sunday’s road win against the Los Angeles Rams. They have scored at least 31 points in all four victories.

The 49ers are going to have to keep pace on the scoreboard to win this game. The total may have stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Arizona but that will not be the case this time around. The total has gone OVER in six of the Cardinals’ last seven home games.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 51.5

The Giants earned their first victory of the season by stunning New Orleans on the road in a come-from-behind upset. The Cowboys have found their groove on offense with a combined 77 points in recent home victories over Philadelphia and Carolina.

The trends all point to another big day in Big D for the Cowboys’ offense. The total has gone OVER in their last five home games and it has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games overall. When it comes to this NFC East rivalry, the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 56

The game of the day in Week 5 is a Sunday Night showdown. Buffalo continues to roll after an opening day loss. Even though the Chiefs are 2-3, there has yet to be a defense that can keep them out of the endzone. The punters had the day off in Kansas City’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Buffalo. Yet, despite the fact that Sunday night’s total is set rather high, I am taking the bait and going with the OVER. This is more because of Kansas City’s defense than its offense.