NFL Week 14 "Play of the Day"

 It is crunch time in the NFL as teams continue to battle for a spot in the annual Super Bowl Derby. Teams such as New Orleans in the NFC and Kansas City in the AFC are jockeying for position while teams like Arizona and Miami are still trying to land a berth in the postseason.

This Sunday's NFL schedule is filled with a number of intriguing matchups headlined by a night game between the 11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 9-3 Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season while the Bills are trying to win their first AFC East Division title since 1995.

When it comes to betting on Sunday's NFL games, the 6-6 Minnesota Vikings on the road against the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught my eye. They are two more teams fighting for their playoff life in the NFC. They are also two of the higher scoring teams in the NFL.

The Vikings are averaging 26.6 points per game while Tampa Bay is posting 28.7. Neither defense has been able to play with any level of consistency. Minnesota is allowing 27.4 points to Tampa Bay's 23.3 points-against average.

The total line for this game opened at as low as 47 1/2 points and it has been bet all the way up to 53. I still do not think the number is high enough for Sunday's showdown. 

The total has gone OVER in five of the Vikings' last seven games and it has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers' last 12 games at home.

Each and every week of the NFL season I release my 10 best NFL plays for the popular sports betting website Scores & Stats. For this week's picks, here is the link: Dave's Top 10 NFL Plays- Week 14

NFL Week 13 Key Betting Trends

 Going through the lineup of games for Week 13 of the NFL season, nothing jumps off the page as 'must see' TV. There are plenty of teams that need to win this week to boost their postseason fortunes but eight of the 15 games are expected to be mismatches with a touchdown spread or higher.

That does not mean that there is no value to be found on the betting board. When it comes to recent betting trends that should not be ignored, here are a few that stand out from the rest.

-- Indianapolis (-3) at Houston

The Colts are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight road games against the Texans in this AFC South tilt.

-- New Orleans (-2 1/2) at Atlanta

The Saints have won five of their last six games against the NFC South rival Falcons both straight-up and ATS.

-- Detroit at Chicago (44 1/2)

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in this NFC North clash in Chicago.

-- LA Rams (-3) at Arizona

The Rams have covered ATS in their last five road games against Arizona and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two NFC West rivals.

-- Denver at Kansas City (-13 1/2)

The Chiefs bring a SU 10-game winning streak into Sunday's matchup against the AFC West rival Broncos. Kansas City has gone 9-1 ATS in those 10 games.

Each and every week of the NFL season I release my Top 10 'best bets' for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats. Here is the link to this week's picks: Dave's Top 10 NFL Picks Week 13.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Rematch 'Best Bet' Play

 The defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs have picked up where they left off with a straight-up 8-1 record through their first nine games. Patrick Mahomes is playing at a MVP level with the offense averaging 32 points a game. Kansas City has eclipsed that total in three of its last four games.

The lone loss of the season came against the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders. In a wild shootout in Kansas City on Oct. 11, the Raiders came away with the stunning 40-32 upset closing as 10 1/2-point road underdogs.

This Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Chiefs are favored by seven points with the total set at 57 points for the rematch. The general betting consensus leans towards Kansas City at 64 percent. It also leans towards the OVER at that exact same percentage.

I normally look for games to go against the public due to the added value in the betting lines. However, I think the Chiefs are out to avenge that first loss in a big way. They survived a close call last Sunday with a two-point win at home against Carolina as 10-point favorites. Prior to that game, Kansas City covered against the spread in lopsided victories against Buffalo, Denver and the New York Jets.

The Raiders are playing their best ball of the year with a 4-1 record both SU and ATS over their past five games. A win on Sunday would keep the AFC West title race interesting heading into the final six games of the season. This is another offense that knows how to put points on the board. Las Vegas has posted a combined 68 points in its last two outings.

From a trend standpoint, Kansas City is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games against the Raiders and it has won five of the last six meetings SU. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 matchups.

While I do have the Chiefs covering the touchdown on the road, my 'best bet' play is the OVER on the inflated 57-point total line.

 Each week of the NFL season, I release my Top 10 'best bets' for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats. Here is the link to this Sunday's list: Dave's Top 10 NFL Picks for Week 11

Betting on a Battle for First in The NFC West

 Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, the Seattle Seahawks were able to establish themselves as the clear team to beat in the NFC West. They were also one of the top favorites to represent their conference in Super Bowl LV.

A loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 25 and last Sunday's slip-up on the road against the Buffalo Bills have raised more than a few question marks for the Seahawks heading into the second half. 

They are still solid -225 favorites to win the West. However, at 6-2 straight-up, a loss this Sunday on the road against the 5-3 Los Angeles Rams could lead to a three-way tie in the division standings. 

Arizona is also 5-3 heading into a Week 10 matchup against the Bills. The Cardinals are favored by 2 1/2 points at home.

The Seahawks are set as two-point road underdogs against the rival Rams. This will be the first meeting this season with the showdown in Seattle set for Week 16. Over the past 10 games in this divisional tilt, Los Angeles has won seven of those games SU with a slight 6-4 edge against the spread. It has a 2-1 record SU and ATS in the last three meetings.

The Rams have also lost two of their last three games (SU and ATS) with road setbacks against San Francisco and Miami wrapped around a win at home against the Chicago Bears. LA is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season.

The current betting consensus is split 50/50 betting this matchup. I give the slight lean to Los Angeles at home. I also see the Cardinals getting past the Bills to set-up that three-way logjam in the NFC West standings.

My best bet for Sunday's game in LA is the UNDER on a 54 1/2-point total line. While the Oddsmakers are looking for a shootout, I have the final score coming lower than this inflated line. The total has stayed UNDER in the Rams' last five games and that trend gets extended to six once this game has gone final.

Each week of the NFL season, I release my Top 10 picks for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats. For this week's pick go to: Dave's Top 10 Best Bet for NFL Week 10

Can No. 2 Notre Dame Avoid a Week 11 Letdown Against Boston College?

 The ACC's Clemson Tigers' run as the consensus top college football team in the nation came to an end with a recent loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The shake-up in the national polls dropped Clemson to No. 4 in the AP's Top 25 while the Irish filled the No. 2 spot behind the SEC's Alabama Crimson Tide as the new No. 1-ranked team.

Notre Dame closed as a 4 1/2-point home underdog in last Saturday's wild 47-40 victory. This Saturday, the Irish head on the road as 13 1/2-point favorites against the Boston College Eagles. The betting total for that game is currently set at 50 points. 

At 7-0 straight-up with a 3-4 record against the spread, this could be a good spot to go against Notre Dame covering. There is always a chance of a letdown coming off such a huge upset. Boston College has gone a respectable 5-3 both SU and ATS behind one its best teams in recent seasons.

Betting trends in this traditional Catholic college rivalry favor the Irish with a SU seven-game winning streak. The Eagles gain the slight edge ATS at 4-3. 

While I do believe that BC can keep this game closer than two touchdowns, I have focused much of my energy on the total line. It has stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings but I am bucking those strong trends with a play on the OVER 50 points.

Notre Dame has crossed the 40-point mark in four of its last six games with the total going OVER each time. The Eagles scored 28 points against Clemson in a recent eight-point loss. They should be able to score more than enough points at home this Saturday to easily eclipse the current betting line.

Each week of the college football season I release my Top 10 plays for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats. Here is the link for this Saturday's games: Dave's Top 10 NCAAF Best Bets.

NFL Week 9 "Best Bet" Pick- New Orleans at Tampa Bay

 As the NFL season hits the midway point, wins and losses become much more pronounced when it comes to the playoff race. It is obvious that both teams in New York are battling it out for the top pick in next year's draft but half of the league's 32 teams have a winning record heading into Sunday's games.

One game that stands out from all the rest is Sunday night's NFC South showdown between the 5-2 New Orleans Saints and the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Most of the pressure in this game is on Tampa Bay after losing its season opener to New Orleans in Week 1. The Buccaneers are favored by 4 1/2 poinst at home with the total line set at 50 1/2-points.

The current betting consensus is leaning slightly towards Tampa Bay at 55 percent. The lean on the total is trending towards the OVER at 64.5 percent.

In a matchup this close with so much on the line in the division title race, my lean is towards the Saints with the extra half point in their favor. With two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks under center, I would also lean towards the OVER on the total line. 

In the first matchup this season, New Orleans put up 34 points in the 11-point win. The Saints closed as four-point home favorites with a 48-point total.

Over the last five meetings between these two division rivals, New Orleans has won four of those games both straight-up and against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 12 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Each week of the NFL season, I release my Top 10 picks for Scores & Stats as a top-rated sports betting site. Coming off a 7-3 record last week, my winning rate for the season is close to 60 percent.

You can get all of this week's picks at Dave's Top 10 NFL Picks

2020 Breeders' Cup Top Racing Picks

The 2020 Breeders' Cup offers 14 major graded stakes race over a two-day card. The total prize money for this year's event adds up to $31 million. 

The first five races at Keeneland Racecourse will be run on Friday afternoon. The final nine events fill Saturday's live card at Keeneland.

Going through the entry list for the top two events this year, I have come up with my Trifecta Play for Friday's $2 million BC Juvenile and Saturday's $6 million BC Classic.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

There is a full field of 14 two-year old standouts in this year's race. However, this is still a two-way race between Jackie's Warrior as the 7/5 favorite and Reinvestment Risk as a 9/2 second-favorite. 

These two Kentucky-bred colts have already gone head-to-head twice this season. Jackie's Warrior went on to win the Hopeful Stakes and the Champagne Stakes with Reinvestment Risk taking second in each of these Grade 1 races. 

I still have Jackie's Warrior a step ahead in another one-two finish. You can add Classier to the trifecta pick as Bob Baffert's best entry in the field.

Jackie's Warrior

Reinvestment Risk

Classier

Breeders' Cup Classic

The one thing that stands out for this year's BC Classic is the depth of three-year old Thoroughbreds in the field. Belmont winner Tiz the Law is a 3/1 second-favorite to win and Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has 6/1 odds to win on the morning line.

My top two picks for the BC Classic are four-year old colts trained by Baffert. I give Maximum Security (7/2) the slight edge over the favorite Improbable at 5/2 odds on the morning line. I was tempted to bet the Baffert Sweep with Authentic as my Show pick. However, I like Global Campaign at longer 20/1 odds coming off a recent win in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes.

Maximum Security

Improbable

Global Campaign

For my complete preview of these two Breeders' Cup races, I have included a link to Scores & Stats as the ultimate sports betting site for US players.