The defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs have picked up where they left off with a straight-up 8-1 record through their first nine games. Patrick Mahomes is playing at a MVP level with the offense averaging 32 points a game. Kansas City has eclipsed that total in three of its last four games.
The lone loss of the season came against the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders. In a wild shootout in Kansas City on Oct. 11, the Raiders came away with the stunning 40-32 upset closing as 10 1/2-point road underdogs.
This Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Chiefs are favored by seven points with the total set at 57 points for the rematch. The general betting consensus leans towards Kansas City at 64 percent. It also leans towards the OVER at that exact same percentage.
I normally look for games to go against the public due to the added value in the betting lines. However, I think the Chiefs are out to avenge that first loss in a big way. They survived a close call last Sunday with a two-point win at home against Carolina as 10-point favorites. Prior to that game, Kansas City covered against the spread in lopsided victories against Buffalo, Denver and the New York Jets.
The Raiders are playing their best ball of the year with a 4-1 record both SU and ATS over their past five games. A win on Sunday would keep the AFC West title race interesting heading into the final six games of the season. This is another offense that knows how to put points on the board. Las Vegas has posted a combined 68 points in its last two outings.
From a trend standpoint, Kansas City is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games against the Raiders and it has won five of the last six meetings SU. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 matchups.
While I do have the Chiefs covering the touchdown on the road, my 'best bet' play is the OVER on the inflated 57-point total line.
Each week of the NFL season, I release my Top 10 'best bets' for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats. Here is the link to this Sunday's list: Dave's Top 10 NFL Picks for Week 11
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