Betting Monday's Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita

 The following Gold Cup race preview and free trifecta pick is reposted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Betting the Holiday Weekend Card at Santa Anita Park

The best in horse betting this Memorial Day holiday weekend is on the West Coast at Santa Anita Park. This Sunday’s racing lineup at Santa Anita is highlighted by the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes as one of three major graded stakes events on the live card.

The other two major betting events on Sunday’s card are Grade 3 Daytona Stakes and the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes. Both of these races will be run on the turf. The Daytona is a 6.5 furlong sprint for horses four and older. The Honeymoon covers 1 1/8 miles on turf and it is open to three-year old fillies.

Monday’s featured race is the annual Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes with a total prize purse of $400,000. Contested over 1 ¼ miles on the dirt at Santa Anita, a talented field of Thoroughbreds three and older is coming together for this race.

Complementing the Gold Cup Stakes on Monday’s card is the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile for some of the best turf racers three and older. Also on Monday’s card is the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes on the turf for fillies and mares three and older.

As far as betting both days of racing at Santa Anita, I focused most of my attention on the projected field for this year’s Hollywood Gold Cup as the biggest betting event over the Memorial Day weekend. Horse Racing Nation has identified seven probable entries for Monday’s main event and the following three would be my picks for a winning trifecta play.

Monday, May 30

Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes – Santa Anita Park

Win: Stilleto Boy

Fresh off a victory in this year’s Grade 2 Californian Stakes at Santa Anita on April 30, this four-year old gelding should be the class of the field for this race as well. Trained by Steve Moger, he has now placed in the money in six of his last seven events. Four of the races were run at Santa Anita to provide even more home track advantage for Monday’s main event.

Sired by Shackleford, a few other career highlights include a third-place finish in this year’s Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park in late January. His most memorable run last year was a second-place finish at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes.

Place: Royal Ship

Trainer Richard Mandella is looking to run Royal Ship in this year’s Gold Cup after posting an impressive victory at Santa Anita in the ungraded John Shear Mile on April 10. His winning time in that race was 1:36.07 while running past Triple Tap and Affable to get the win. This was the only race this year for the six-year old gelding.

While I am not sure he can get past Stilleto Boy on Monday given the added distance of this race, Royal Ship would be the next best horse in the projected field if he runs.

Show: Spielberg

Once a hot commodity as a promising three-year old, this four-year old Kentucky-bred colt continues to be competitive in any race he runs. He was third behind Stilleto Boy and Express Train in April’s Californian Stakes. He also finished just outside the money in this year’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in early March.

Trained by Sean McCarthy, the son of Union Rags has run the best races of his career at a slightly longer distance.

 

Betting Picks for Saturday's Preakness Stakes

 The following Preakness race preview with betting picks is reposted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Free Trifecta Pick for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes

Horse bettors have had almost two weeks to get over the beating they took in this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 7. It was hard to win any kind of money in that race unless you handicapped an 80-1 longshot upsetting the field.

With Derby winner Rich Strike bowing out of this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, I am expecting a return to normal where the best three entries run true to form and finish in the money. With $1.5 million up for grabs in total price money for the second leg of the Triple Crown racing series, I have broken down the field of nine three-year old Thoroughbreds set to run on Saturday.

The Grade 1 Preakness Stakes will cover a total distance of 1 3/8 miles on the dirt track at Pimlico. With the post positions, jockeys and morning line odds all in place, the following three entries for Saturday’s main event would be my trifecta pick at the betting window or favorite online racebook.

Saturday, May 21

2022 Preakness Stakes - Pimlico Race Course

Win- Epicenter

This three-year old colt was my top pick to win the Kentucky Derby and he almost got it done as the favorite with the second-place finish behind Rich Strike. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he remains the strongest contender in the field of nine for this race and a value pick to win even at low odds.

The son of Not This Time will break from the No. 8 post as the clear 6-5 favorite on the morning line and jockey Joel Rosario will one again be leading the way. Counting the second place finish two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, Epicenter has placed first or second in each of his last six events going back to November of his juvenile campaign.

Place- Early Voting

Sitting out the Kentucky Derby, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt will be fresh for this race. Sired by Gun Runner, he placed second in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9 his last time out. That race was won by Mo Donegal. In his only other race this year, he won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at that same track in early February. Early Voting covered the 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track at Aqueduct in 1:55.90.

With jockey Jose Ortiz getting the call, he will break from the favorable No. 5 post in Saturday’s field of nine. Trained by Chad Brown, he has been opened at 7-2 odds to win on the Preakness Stakes morning line.

Show- Secret Oath

This three-year old filly caught my eye at Churchill Downs the day before the Kentucky Derby by winning this year’s Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She covered the 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:49.44 past Nest and Desert Dawn. This successful run followed a third-place finish against the colts in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 2.

In four races as a three-year old, Secret Oath has won three of those events. Sired by Arrogate, she is trained D. Wayne Lucas. Drawing the No. 4 post for Saturday with jockey Luis Saez aboard, she has been opened at 9-2 odds to win as the third choice on the board.

Free Race Picks for Man O' War Stakes at Belmont Park

 This race preview is reposted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

Betting This Saturday’s Race Card at Belmont Park

Coming off one of the biggest upsets in the history of major stakes horse racing at Churchill Downs last Saturday, this Saturday’s lineup of races at Belmont Park features a full card of betting action. It will be hard to top the excitement of Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds. However, the Saturday could be a good time to go back to betting on the favorites.

Belmont Park in Elmont, New York is back on the betting board in anticipation of this year’s Belmont Stakes on June 12 as the final race of 2022 Triple Crown racing season. As the field starts to come together for next Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Belmont’s card this Saturday offers up five major graded stakes events.

On the undercard, the Beaugay Stakes  and Vagrancy Stakes highlight some top-flight fillies and mares competing on the dirt and the turf. The Runhappy Stakes is a six-furlong sprint on dirt open to horses four and older as another Grade 3 event.

A group of three-year old Thoroughbreds looking for a spot in the field for June’s Belmont Stakes will battle it out over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track in this year’s Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. My ‘one to watch’ in that race is Golden Glider coming off a fourth-place finish in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

The featured race of the day on Saturday’s card is the Grade 1 Man O’ War Stakes with a total prize purse of $700,000. Contested on the turf track at Belmont over 1 3/8 miles, Horse Racing Nation has listed seven horses as probable. Below are my three picks to finish in the money in this graded event.

Saturday, May 14

Man O’ War Stakes – Belmont Park

Win: Yibir

This four-year old colt bred in Great Britain is trained by Charlie Appleby. With a second-place run in this year’s Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket on April 29, he has finished first or second in his last five graded events.

This lucrative run includes a victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar. Sired by Dubawi, he covered the 1 ½ miles on turf in 2:25.90 past Broome and Teona in that impressive win.

Place: Gufo

Trained by Christophe Clement, this five-year old Kentucky-bred horse is coming off a victory in this year’s Grade 2 Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream Park on April 2. He covered the extended 1 ½ miles on turf in 2:27.28 past Abaan and Novo Sol. He placed second in the Man O’ War last year.

The son of Declaration of War has now finished in the money in 14 of 15 events with eight victories. This is the kind of consistency that pays off race after race. His only finish outside the top three horses during this incredible run was a fade to 10^th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf against the best turf racers in the world.

Show: Abaan

The best of the rest in the probable field for Saturday is trained by Todd Pletcher. Prior to his second-place finish behind Gufo in the Pan American Stakes, the five-year old gelding started the 2022 racing season by winning the Grade 3 WL McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 29. He went on to finish fourth in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes at that same track in early March.

 

 

Free Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick

My Kentucky Derby race preview and free trifecta pick has been reposted courtesy of ScoresandStats.com

Saturday’s 2022 Kentucky Derby “Best Bet” Trifecta Play

The post positions and opening morning line odds for Saturday’s running of the 148^th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs have been set. This year’s field of the best three-year old Thoroughbred race horses has been expanded out to 22 entries as the ultimate test of your horse betting handicapping skills.

The entire live card at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 7 is a horse bettor’s dream. Post time for the first of 12 races on the card is 10:30 a.m. (ET). There are seven major graded events with more than $8 million in total prize money up for grabs. The total prize money for this year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ alone is set at $3 million.

This race is the Crown Jewel of the Triple Crown series followed by the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 21 and the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 11.

Focusing all of my attention on this Saturday’s main event with a scheduled post time of 6:57 p.m. (ET), I have narrowed down the Kentucky Derby’s massive 22-horse field to best of the bunch. The following three colts would be my “best bet” picks to finish in the money over this 1 ¼ miles run on the dirt track at Churchill.

Saturday, May 7

2022 Kentucky Derby – Churchill Downs (Post Time 6:57 p.m.)

Win: Epicenter

The second-favorite on the morning line at 7-2 odds will break from the No. 3 post with Joel Rosario as his jockey. Zandon gets the nod as the 3-1 favorite to win but Epicenter still appears to be the class of this field. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the son of Not This Time moved to the top of the list with victories at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby as Grade 2 events.

Through his last five events, Epicenter has posted four wins with a second-place run in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in his three-year old debut.

Place: White Abarrio

My second choice for Saturday won this year’s Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in impressive fashion a month ago. He will break from the No. 15 post in this race with jockey Tyler Gaffalione leading the way. Sired by Race Day, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt has been opened at 10-1 odds on the morning line to add some solid value to trainer Saffie Joseph Jr’s best chance to win a Kentucky Derby title.

White Abarrio also won this year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in his three-year old debut on Feb. 5. He has posted four victories in five starts during his early racing career.

Show: Zandon

Starting from the very favorable No. 10 post with jockey Flavien Prat, the favorite to win should get a solid start out of the gate. Coming off the victory in last month’s Grade 1  Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, my only concern in picking Zandon as my top choice is a third-place finish behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star. Trainer Chad Brown has the son of Upstart trending in the right direction in his recent performances on the track but it is hard to tell how much of this is media type verse substance.

Zandon closed out his juvenile campaign with a second-place finish at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. He has finished in the money in all four of his previous races.

NBA Conference Semifinals Series Price Odds

 The opening round of the NBA playoffs is in the books and the betting action has gone chalk with the top four seeds in both the East and West advancing to the best-of-seven conference semifinals. 

Starting on Sunday, May 1 in the Eastern Conference, the No. 2 Boston Celtics have been opened as -215 favorites to beat the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee is the defending NBA Champion but the Bucks will open this series as +185 underdogs to move onto the next round of this year's postseason run to another league title.

Series Prediction: Milwaukee in 7

Sunday's series opener in the Western Conference pits the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies against the No. 3 Golden State Warriors. Memphis has been opened as a +195 underdog even with home court advantage. Golden State is set as a -225 favorite.

Series Prediction: Golden State in 6

Moving to the first of Monday's two Game 1 NBA matchups, the Miami Heat are the No. 1 seed in the East. They have been set as -370 favorites to eliminate the No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers as +300 underdogs. Miami has been opened as an eight-point home favorite for Monday's series opener as the biggest Game 1 favorite on the board.

Series Prediction: Philadelphia in 7

The final matchup in the conference semifinals pits the West's No. 1 Phoenix Suns against the No. 4 Dallas Mavericks. The Suns get the nod in this series as -275 favorites. Dallas has been opened as a +230 underdog to keep its NBA title hopes alive.

Series Prediction: Phoenix in 6

Bet the 76ers to Close Out Toronto in Game 6

Game 6 between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Toronto Raptors in the opening round of the NBA playoffs is set for Thursday night in Toronto. After racing out to a dominating 3-0 series lead in this best-of-seven matchup, the Sixers have dropped the last two games to suddenly make things interesting.

Philly came into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Toronto finished fifth in the final regular season standings. The 76ers opened as -175 favorites on the series price odds. Even with their series lead down to just one game, the current odds stand at -575 that they will still go on to win.

With Thursday's game on the road, Philadelphia is currently favorited by one point to win Game 6 and close things out. The betting odds on the money line have the Sixers set as -114 favorites. The total for Game 6 is set at 208.5 points after the total stayed UNDER in the last four meetings.

After winning the first two games at home by comfortable double-digit margins, Philly went up 3-0 with a thrilling 104-101 overtime victory in the first series game in Toronto. The eight-point loss in Game 4 to end a bid for a four-game sweep was somewhat expected. However, a stunning 103-88 loss at home in Game 5 is a real head-scratcher for a team that appeared to be in complete control.

The big question for betting Thursday's Game 6 is what 76ers' team takes the court at Scotiabank Arena? My guess is that  Philly will win this game with ease to avoid the drama of a Game 7 back in Wells Fargo Arena on Saturday.

As goes Joel Embiid goes the 76ers. As one of the favorites to win NBA Most Valuable Player this season, he still has something to prove given his team's previous woes in the postseason. The loss in Game 5 of this series is still hard to explain for a team that was cruising to an easy opening round win. 

The one-point spread for Game 6 is a testament to the lack of confidence in Philadelphia as a legitimate title contender. However, this still appears like a gift for me.

2022 NFL Draft Top 3 "Opening Round" Prop Picks

 The opening round of this year's NFL draft will take place this Thursday night in Las Vegas. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the clock first with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Most betting experts predict that former Michigan defensive end Aiden Hutchinson will be that pick. The betting odds that Hutchinson goes first in the 2022 draft are set at -180. 

There are any number of ways to bet on Thursday's first round through a grocery list of interesting betting props. Below is a quick look at my Top 3 draft prop picks offering the best betting value in the current numbers.

OVER/UNDER: Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round?

The OVER/UNDER for this prop has been set at 3.5. The betting odds heavily favor the UNDER at -275. However, a small bet on OVER at +185 offers a solid return. 

The quarterback position is the most overanalyzed when it comes to NFL draft gurus. The two quarterbacks deemed worthy of a first round pick appear to be Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett. The next two quarterbacks on the ranking list would be Desmond Ridder and Matt Coral. 

NFL teams looking for their next quarterback tend to reach when it comes to the annual draft. This always opens up the possibility that all four of these players will off the board in the opening round.

OVER/UNDER: Total First Round Defensive Players

The OVER/UNDER on defensive players taken in the first 32 picks is set pretty much in the middle at 15.5. The betting odds favor the OVER at -160 given a stronger trend towards drafting elite players on the defensive end of the ball.

Yet, there is some solid value in the +120 odds for the UNDER in this prop given the unpredictable nature of every NFL team. Everything is subject to change come Thursday night and this could easily swing the balance of power towards offensive players.

If you wanted to double down on this prop, you could also bet the OVER 15.5 on total offensive players at +110 odds.

First Wide Receiver Taken in the NFL Draft

The betting odds favor Garrett Wilson being the first wide receiver drafted on Thursday night at -140. The next player on the list is Jameson Williams at +175.

Both of these players are expected to be drafted in the first half of the opening round. Wilson gets the slight edge to go first but nothing is set in stone. In a prop that could be deemed 'too close to call', the added value in Williams' plus money odds at 175 becomes too hard to turn down.