Free Race Picks for Man O' War Stakes at Belmont Park

 This race preview is reposted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

Betting This Saturday’s Race Card at Belmont Park

Coming off one of the biggest upsets in the history of major stakes horse racing at Churchill Downs last Saturday, this Saturday’s lineup of races at Belmont Park features a full card of betting action. It will be hard to top the excitement of Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds. However, the Saturday could be a good time to go back to betting on the favorites.

Belmont Park in Elmont, New York is back on the betting board in anticipation of this year’s Belmont Stakes on June 12 as the final race of 2022 Triple Crown racing season. As the field starts to come together for next Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Belmont’s card this Saturday offers up five major graded stakes events.

On the undercard, the Beaugay Stakes  and Vagrancy Stakes highlight some top-flight fillies and mares competing on the dirt and the turf. The Runhappy Stakes is a six-furlong sprint on dirt open to horses four and older as another Grade 3 event.

A group of three-year old Thoroughbreds looking for a spot in the field for June’s Belmont Stakes will battle it out over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track in this year’s Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. My ‘one to watch’ in that race is Golden Glider coming off a fourth-place finish in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

The featured race of the day on Saturday’s card is the Grade 1 Man O’ War Stakes with a total prize purse of $700,000. Contested on the turf track at Belmont over 1 3/8 miles, Horse Racing Nation has listed seven horses as probable. Below are my three picks to finish in the money in this graded event.

Saturday, May 14

Man O’ War Stakes – Belmont Park

Win: Yibir

This four-year old colt bred in Great Britain is trained by Charlie Appleby. With a second-place run in this year’s Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket on April 29, he has finished first or second in his last five graded events.

This lucrative run includes a victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar. Sired by Dubawi, he covered the 1 ½ miles on turf in 2:25.90 past Broome and Teona in that impressive win.

Place: Gufo

Trained by Christophe Clement, this five-year old Kentucky-bred horse is coming off a victory in this year’s Grade 2 Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream Park on April 2. He covered the extended 1 ½ miles on turf in 2:27.28 past Abaan and Novo Sol. He placed second in the Man O’ War last year.

The son of Declaration of War has now finished in the money in 14 of 15 events with eight victories. This is the kind of consistency that pays off race after race. His only finish outside the top three horses during this incredible run was a fade to 10^th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf against the best turf racers in the world.

Show: Abaan

The best of the rest in the probable field for Saturday is trained by Todd Pletcher. Prior to his second-place finish behind Gufo in the Pan American Stakes, the five-year old gelding started the 2022 racing season by winning the Grade 3 WL McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 29. He went on to finish fourth in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes at that same track in early March.

 

 

Free Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick

My Kentucky Derby race preview and free trifecta pick has been reposted courtesy of ScoresandStats.com

Saturday’s 2022 Kentucky Derby “Best Bet” Trifecta Play

The post positions and opening morning line odds for Saturday’s running of the 148^th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs have been set. This year’s field of the best three-year old Thoroughbred race horses has been expanded out to 22 entries as the ultimate test of your horse betting handicapping skills.

The entire live card at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 7 is a horse bettor’s dream. Post time for the first of 12 races on the card is 10:30 a.m. (ET). There are seven major graded events with more than $8 million in total prize money up for grabs. The total prize money for this year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ alone is set at $3 million.

This race is the Crown Jewel of the Triple Crown series followed by the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 21 and the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 11.

Focusing all of my attention on this Saturday’s main event with a scheduled post time of 6:57 p.m. (ET), I have narrowed down the Kentucky Derby’s massive 22-horse field to best of the bunch. The following three colts would be my “best bet” picks to finish in the money over this 1 ¼ miles run on the dirt track at Churchill.

Saturday, May 7

2022 Kentucky Derby – Churchill Downs (Post Time 6:57 p.m.)

Win: Epicenter

The second-favorite on the morning line at 7-2 odds will break from the No. 3 post with Joel Rosario as his jockey. Zandon gets the nod as the 3-1 favorite to win but Epicenter still appears to be the class of this field. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the son of Not This Time moved to the top of the list with victories at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby as Grade 2 events.

Through his last five events, Epicenter has posted four wins with a second-place run in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in his three-year old debut.

Place: White Abarrio

My second choice for Saturday won this year’s Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in impressive fashion a month ago. He will break from the No. 15 post in this race with jockey Tyler Gaffalione leading the way. Sired by Race Day, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt has been opened at 10-1 odds on the morning line to add some solid value to trainer Saffie Joseph Jr’s best chance to win a Kentucky Derby title.

White Abarrio also won this year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in his three-year old debut on Feb. 5. He has posted four victories in five starts during his early racing career.

Show: Zandon

Starting from the very favorable No. 10 post with jockey Flavien Prat, the favorite to win should get a solid start out of the gate. Coming off the victory in last month’s Grade 1  Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, my only concern in picking Zandon as my top choice is a third-place finish behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star. Trainer Chad Brown has the son of Upstart trending in the right direction in his recent performances on the track but it is hard to tell how much of this is media type verse substance.

Zandon closed out his juvenile campaign with a second-place finish at Aqueduct in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. He has finished in the money in all four of his previous races.

NBA Conference Semifinals Series Price Odds

 The opening round of the NBA playoffs is in the books and the betting action has gone chalk with the top four seeds in both the East and West advancing to the best-of-seven conference semifinals. 

Starting on Sunday, May 1 in the Eastern Conference, the No. 2 Boston Celtics have been opened as -215 favorites to beat the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee is the defending NBA Champion but the Bucks will open this series as +185 underdogs to move onto the next round of this year's postseason run to another league title.

Series Prediction: Milwaukee in 7

Sunday's series opener in the Western Conference pits the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies against the No. 3 Golden State Warriors. Memphis has been opened as a +195 underdog even with home court advantage. Golden State is set as a -225 favorite.

Series Prediction: Golden State in 6

Moving to the first of Monday's two Game 1 NBA matchups, the Miami Heat are the No. 1 seed in the East. They have been set as -370 favorites to eliminate the No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers as +300 underdogs. Miami has been opened as an eight-point home favorite for Monday's series opener as the biggest Game 1 favorite on the board.

Series Prediction: Philadelphia in 7

The final matchup in the conference semifinals pits the West's No. 1 Phoenix Suns against the No. 4 Dallas Mavericks. The Suns get the nod in this series as -275 favorites. Dallas has been opened as a +230 underdog to keep its NBA title hopes alive.

Series Prediction: Phoenix in 6

Bet the 76ers to Close Out Toronto in Game 6

Game 6 between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Toronto Raptors in the opening round of the NBA playoffs is set for Thursday night in Toronto. After racing out to a dominating 3-0 series lead in this best-of-seven matchup, the Sixers have dropped the last two games to suddenly make things interesting.

Philly came into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Toronto finished fifth in the final regular season standings. The 76ers opened as -175 favorites on the series price odds. Even with their series lead down to just one game, the current odds stand at -575 that they will still go on to win.

With Thursday's game on the road, Philadelphia is currently favorited by one point to win Game 6 and close things out. The betting odds on the money line have the Sixers set as -114 favorites. The total for Game 6 is set at 208.5 points after the total stayed UNDER in the last four meetings.

After winning the first two games at home by comfortable double-digit margins, Philly went up 3-0 with a thrilling 104-101 overtime victory in the first series game in Toronto. The eight-point loss in Game 4 to end a bid for a four-game sweep was somewhat expected. However, a stunning 103-88 loss at home in Game 5 is a real head-scratcher for a team that appeared to be in complete control.

The big question for betting Thursday's Game 6 is what 76ers' team takes the court at Scotiabank Arena? My guess is that  Philly will win this game with ease to avoid the drama of a Game 7 back in Wells Fargo Arena on Saturday.

As goes Joel Embiid goes the 76ers. As one of the favorites to win NBA Most Valuable Player this season, he still has something to prove given his team's previous woes in the postseason. The loss in Game 5 of this series is still hard to explain for a team that was cruising to an easy opening round win. 

The one-point spread for Game 6 is a testament to the lack of confidence in Philadelphia as a legitimate title contender. However, this still appears like a gift for me.

2022 NFL Draft Top 3 "Opening Round" Prop Picks

 The opening round of this year's NFL draft will take place this Thursday night in Las Vegas. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the clock first with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Most betting experts predict that former Michigan defensive end Aiden Hutchinson will be that pick. The betting odds that Hutchinson goes first in the 2022 draft are set at -180. 

There are any number of ways to bet on Thursday's first round through a grocery list of interesting betting props. Below is a quick look at my Top 3 draft prop picks offering the best betting value in the current numbers.

OVER/UNDER: Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round?

The OVER/UNDER for this prop has been set at 3.5. The betting odds heavily favor the UNDER at -275. However, a small bet on OVER at +185 offers a solid return. 

The quarterback position is the most overanalyzed when it comes to NFL draft gurus. The two quarterbacks deemed worthy of a first round pick appear to be Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett. The next two quarterbacks on the ranking list would be Desmond Ridder and Matt Coral. 

NFL teams looking for their next quarterback tend to reach when it comes to the annual draft. This always opens up the possibility that all four of these players will off the board in the opening round.

OVER/UNDER: Total First Round Defensive Players

The OVER/UNDER on defensive players taken in the first 32 picks is set pretty much in the middle at 15.5. The betting odds favor the OVER at -160 given a stronger trend towards drafting elite players on the defensive end of the ball.

Yet, there is some solid value in the +120 odds for the UNDER in this prop given the unpredictable nature of every NFL team. Everything is subject to change come Thursday night and this could easily swing the balance of power towards offensive players.

If you wanted to double down on this prop, you could also bet the OVER 15.5 on total offensive players at +110 odds.

First Wide Receiver Taken in the NFL Draft

The betting odds favor Garrett Wilson being the first wide receiver drafted on Thursday night at -140. The next player on the list is Jameson Williams at +175.

Both of these players are expected to be drafted in the first half of the opening round. Wilson gets the slight edge to go first but nothing is set in stone. In a prop that could be deemed 'too close to call', the added value in Williams' plus money odds at 175 becomes too hard to turn down.

Best Bets on 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Odds

This year's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Hill Downs is set for Saturday, May 7 in its traditional time slot of the first Saturday of May. While post positions with the opening morning line odds will not be decided until Tuesday, May 3, most online sportsbooks have released Kentucky Derby futures odds for the top 20 contenders.

From a betting standpoint, locking in a horse's odds to win before the race offers quite a bit of value. This is especially true if a contender is undervalued as compared to his eventual pari-mutuel betting odds for that race at the track.

For example, you can bet the favorite Epicenter at +450 which equates to 9-to-2 odds. By locking in the fixed odds through a futures bet on the Kentucky Derby, you are guaranteed that payout. Epicenter might drop down as low as 2-to-1 by post time on Derby Day.

This three-year old Kentucky-bred colt won the Louisiana Derby his last time out on March 26. This win marked his fourth graded-stakes victory in his last five events. The only slip was to second place in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. Sired by Not This Time and trained by Steve Asmussen, Epicenter appears to be the colt to beat at Churchill Downs in this year's Run for the Roses.

If you are looking for betting value at longer odds on the Kentucky Derby futures board, Mo Donegal at +1200 would be on my list. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this Kentucky-bred three-year old is coming off an impressive victory in this year's Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9. The son of Uncle Mo closed out his juvenile campaign by winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at that same track on Dec. 14.

Going even deeper down the list of futures odds, my top-valued pick to win the Kentucky Derby would be Cyberknife  at +2000 odds. The son of Gun Runner has excellent pedigree and a proven track record of success under the watchful eye of trainer Brad Cox. This Kentucky-bred three-year old's biggest claim to fame is a stunning victory in this year's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 2. After starting his three-year old campaign with a disappointing fade to sixth in the Lecomte Stakes, he has made some tremendous progress in the past few months.

Philadelphia 76ers NBA Championship Futures

 The Philadelphia 76ers are the No. 4 seed in the NBA's Eastern Conference heading into their best-of-seven opening round playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is set for Saturday night at 6 p.m. in Philadelphia.

The 76ers are 4.5-point home favorites to win the opener and their betting odds to win that series are set at -175 as solid favorites. 

When it comes to the NBA futures odds to win this season's world title, the Phoenix Suns are the favorite in the Western Conference and the Milwaukee Bucks have the best odds on any team in the East. Philadelphia is fifth on the list at +650 odds.

Given the fact that the Sixers are in the mix as one of the top five teams in the running, the big question for bettors is how far can this team go in this year's NBA playoffs. Joel Embiid has played well enough to garner serious MVP consideration. If James Harden has enough gas left in the tank to play at a high level for the next two months, that could be enough to carry Philly all the way to the NBA Finals. From there, anything can happen in one final best-of-seven series.

The betting odds for the 76ers' run in this year's playoffs offer some excellent value at +300 to make the Eastern Conference Finals. However, getting past the Bucks in that series could be too tall of a task.

Stage of Elimination - Philadelphia 76ers 

07:00 PM

1st Round

+150

2nd Round

+190

Conference Finals

+300

NBA Finals

+1100

Win the NBA Championship

+1200