2022 NFL Draft Top 3 "Opening Round" Prop Picks

 The opening round of this year's NFL draft will take place this Thursday night in Las Vegas. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the clock first with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Most betting experts predict that former Michigan defensive end Aiden Hutchinson will be that pick. The betting odds that Hutchinson goes first in the 2022 draft are set at -180. 

There are any number of ways to bet on Thursday's first round through a grocery list of interesting betting props. Below is a quick look at my Top 3 draft prop picks offering the best betting value in the current numbers.

OVER/UNDER: Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round?

The OVER/UNDER for this prop has been set at 3.5. The betting odds heavily favor the UNDER at -275. However, a small bet on OVER at +185 offers a solid return. 

The quarterback position is the most overanalyzed when it comes to NFL draft gurus. The two quarterbacks deemed worthy of a first round pick appear to be Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett. The next two quarterbacks on the ranking list would be Desmond Ridder and Matt Coral. 

NFL teams looking for their next quarterback tend to reach when it comes to the annual draft. This always opens up the possibility that all four of these players will off the board in the opening round.

OVER/UNDER: Total First Round Defensive Players

The OVER/UNDER on defensive players taken in the first 32 picks is set pretty much in the middle at 15.5. The betting odds favor the OVER at -160 given a stronger trend towards drafting elite players on the defensive end of the ball.

Yet, there is some solid value in the +120 odds for the UNDER in this prop given the unpredictable nature of every NFL team. Everything is subject to change come Thursday night and this could easily swing the balance of power towards offensive players.

If you wanted to double down on this prop, you could also bet the OVER 15.5 on total offensive players at +110 odds.

First Wide Receiver Taken in the NFL Draft

The betting odds favor Garrett Wilson being the first wide receiver drafted on Thursday night at -140. The next player on the list is Jameson Williams at +175.

Both of these players are expected to be drafted in the first half of the opening round. Wilson gets the slight edge to go first but nothing is set in stone. In a prop that could be deemed 'too close to call', the added value in Williams' plus money odds at 175 becomes too hard to turn down.

Best Bets on 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures Odds

This year's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Hill Downs is set for Saturday, May 7 in its traditional time slot of the first Saturday of May. While post positions with the opening morning line odds will not be decided until Tuesday, May 3, most online sportsbooks have released Kentucky Derby futures odds for the top 20 contenders.

From a betting standpoint, locking in a horse's odds to win before the race offers quite a bit of value. This is especially true if a contender is undervalued as compared to his eventual pari-mutuel betting odds for that race at the track.

For example, you can bet the favorite Epicenter at +450 which equates to 9-to-2 odds. By locking in the fixed odds through a futures bet on the Kentucky Derby, you are guaranteed that payout. Epicenter might drop down as low as 2-to-1 by post time on Derby Day.

This three-year old Kentucky-bred colt won the Louisiana Derby his last time out on March 26. This win marked his fourth graded-stakes victory in his last five events. The only slip was to second place in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. Sired by Not This Time and trained by Steve Asmussen, Epicenter appears to be the colt to beat at Churchill Downs in this year's Run for the Roses.

If you are looking for betting value at longer odds on the Kentucky Derby futures board, Mo Donegal at +1200 would be on my list. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this Kentucky-bred three-year old is coming off an impressive victory in this year's Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9. The son of Uncle Mo closed out his juvenile campaign by winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at that same track on Dec. 14.

Going even deeper down the list of futures odds, my top-valued pick to win the Kentucky Derby would be Cyberknife  at +2000 odds. The son of Gun Runner has excellent pedigree and a proven track record of success under the watchful eye of trainer Brad Cox. This Kentucky-bred three-year old's biggest claim to fame is a stunning victory in this year's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 2. After starting his three-year old campaign with a disappointing fade to sixth in the Lecomte Stakes, he has made some tremendous progress in the past few months.

Philadelphia 76ers NBA Championship Futures

 The Philadelphia 76ers are the No. 4 seed in the NBA's Eastern Conference heading into their best-of-seven opening round playoff series against the Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is set for Saturday night at 6 p.m. in Philadelphia.

The 76ers are 4.5-point home favorites to win the opener and their betting odds to win that series are set at -175 as solid favorites. 

When it comes to the NBA futures odds to win this season's world title, the Phoenix Suns are the favorite in the Western Conference and the Milwaukee Bucks have the best odds on any team in the East. Philadelphia is fifth on the list at +650 odds.

Given the fact that the Sixers are in the mix as one of the top five teams in the running, the big question for bettors is how far can this team go in this year's NBA playoffs. Joel Embiid has played well enough to garner serious MVP consideration. If James Harden has enough gas left in the tank to play at a high level for the next two months, that could be enough to carry Philly all the way to the NBA Finals. From there, anything can happen in one final best-of-seven series.

The betting odds for the 76ers' run in this year's playoffs offer some excellent value at +300 to make the Eastern Conference Finals. However, getting past the Bucks in that series could be too tall of a task.

Stage of Elimination - Philadelphia 76ers 

07:00 PM

1st Round

+150

2nd Round

+190

Conference Finals

+300

NBA Finals

+1100

Win the NBA Championship

+1200

Betting Saturday's Trio of Kentucky Derby Preps

 With the calendar turning the page to April, horse racing takes center state each spring leading up to the annual Kentucky Derby as the Crown Jewel of the Triple Crown racing series for the best three-year old Thoroughbreds in the nation.

I have been covering this year's Kentucky Derby Trail with race previews and predictions for the entire prep race schedule. This Saturday's race card offers coast-to-coast horse racing action as that prep season comes to a close. 

Reprinted below via permission of ScoresandStats.com is my preview and winning predictions for this Saturday's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.

Winning Picks for This Saturday’s Trio of Kentucky Derby Preps

The last big round of Kentucky Derby prep races for this year’s class of prized three-year old Thoroughbreds will be run this Saturday at three famous horse racing tracks across the nation.

Starting on the East Coast at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York is Saturday’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial with a total prize purse of $750,000. Covering 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the field is still coming together for this race with nine horses listed as probable at Horse Racing Nation.

Moving to the home of Thoroughbred racing in the US,  the opening weekend of spring horse racing at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky is highlighted by Saturday’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes with $1 million in prize money up for grabs. HRN has identified nine contenders as probable for another 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep race on the dirt.

Finishing up Saturday’s prep race schedule on the West Coast is the annual Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park in Southern California. This Grade 1 event covers 1 1/8 miles on the dirt with a total prize purse of $750,000. Ahead of the post position draw, HRN has listed six contenders as probable including Animal Kingdom as one of the early favorites to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Wood Memorial – Aqueduct Racetrack

Win: Morello

Coming off a win at Aqueduct in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 5, this three-year old colt is the one to beat in this Saturday’s race. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he is a perfect three-for-three in his early racing career. Sired by Classic Empire, he comes into this race with an impressive HRN rating of 7.18 which is the highest in the projected field.

One to Watch: Early Voting

Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Gun Runner won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct his last time out. He covered the 1 1/8 miles distance in that race with a winning time of 1:55.9 past Un Ojo and Gilded Age.

Bluegrass Stakes – Keeneland Race Course

Win: Smile Happy

This three-year old colt should be the favorite to win on the morning line. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he slipped to second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds his last time out on Feb. 19 after winning a pair of races as a juvenile. Sired by Runhappy, he is definitely the class of field for the Blue Grass.

One to Watch: Zandon

Taking third in the Risen Star, he has the best chance to upset the favorite on Saturday. He closed out his juvenile campaign with a second-place finish at Aqueduct in last year’s Grade 2 Remsen Stakes for added home track advantage is Saturday’s featured event.

Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita Park

Win: Forbidden Kingdom

I have a strong lean towards this Kentucky-bred colt in Saturday’s race coming off his win at Santa Anita on March 5 in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. Trained by Richard Mandella, the son of American Pharoah will be going for the Santa Anita trifecta after winning the Grade 3 San Vicente Stakes in this three-year old debut.

One to Watch: Messier

With a strong HRN rating of 7.51, the son of Empire Maker can give the favorite a tough battle in this race. Trained by Tim Yakteen, this three-year old Canadian-bred colt won the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 6.

 

North Carolina vs. Duke Final Four Preview & Betting Picks

One of college basketball's all-time great rivalries will be renewed on Saturday night with the North Carolina Tar Heels tangling with the Duke Blue Devils in the back half of this year's Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. on TBS from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Duke is currently favored by four points on the spread with the betting line for the total set at 151 points. These two ACC foes met twice in the regular season with the road team winning both straight-up and against the spread.

The Tar Heels are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and more importantly 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke. The total has gone OVER in six of those 10 meetings.

In what should be an epic battle for a spot in Monday night's NCAA Tournament championship game, I see this game staying closer than the four-point spread. With both teams playing at a very high level, scoring should be high enough to take to total OVER on that betting line.

For my full game preview and official "best bet" pick, the link below is to VegasInsider as the premier source for sports betting insight in the nation.

North Carolina vs. Duke

Arkansas Derby & Florida Derby Preview and Picks

The following race preview has been reposted via permission from ScoresandStats.com 

Betting Saturday’s Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby

The first Saturday of horse betting in April does not get any bigger than this with the running of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Both races are Grade 1 major stakes events that will go a long way towards setting the final field of 20 three-year old Thoroughbreds for this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 7.

The total prize purse for the 1 1/8 miles run on the dirt at Oaklawn has been set at $1.25 million. That field is set with eight colts and one filly listed as entered.

The prize money up for grabs in the Florida Derby is $1 million for the 1 1/8 miles run on Gulfstream’s dirt track. With the field still coming together, it appears that up to 10 colts will be gunning for that coveted title.

Breaking down the top contenders in each of these races, below are my top picks to finish in the money.

Saturday, April 2

2022 Arkansas Derby- Oaklawn Park

Win- Secret Oath

Opened as a 5-2 favorite on the morning line, the lone three-year old filly in the field appears to be the one to beat. Trained by D Wayne Lucas, she drew the No. 6 post for this race with Luis Contreras as her jockey. Coming off a victory in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb. 26, she has now won her last three races at this park for some serious home track advantage.

Place- Un Ojo

This three-year old colt was my “one to watch” in last month’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and he stunned the field by winning that race. Trained by Rickie Courville, he will break from the No. 5 post on Saturday with jockey Ramon Vazquez. Opened at longer 6-1 odds on the morning line, Un Ojo would definitely be my top-value play in this race.

Show- We The People

Moving to the far outside No. 9 post at 7-2 odds, the son of Constitution will have Flavien Prat on board as his jockey. Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, this Kentucky-bred colt caught my attention with a recent victory at Oaklawn in a 1 1/16 miles Allowance Claimer on March 12. This will be the three-year old’s first major graded stakes event but he is ready to make his mark with a late bid to qualify for the Kentucky Derby field.

2022 Florida Derby- Gulfstream Park

Win- Simplification

Coming off a solid victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on March 5, I have to go with the Florida-bred colt in this race. Trained by Antonio Sano, the son of Not This Time appears to be the most complete contender in the projected field with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 7.55.

Place- Charge It

Trained by Todd Pletcher, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt looked sharp his last time out in a victory at Gulfstream in a one mile Maiden Special Weight race on Feb. 12. The son of Tapit will be stepping up in class this Saturday in his first major graded event. However, I believe he is up to the task of competing for the win.

Show- Pappacap

Sired by Gun Runner and trained by Mark Casse, this Florida-bred colt is one of the more experienced contenders in the field. Coming off a poor showing in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19, he is ready to redeem himself after placing third earlier this year in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at that same track. Pappacap’s biggest claim to fame is a third-place run in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina Elite 8 Betting Preview & Picks

The Cinderella Saint Peter's Peacocks are looking to extend their amazing run in this year's NCAA Tournament all the way to to the Final Four with a victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels in an Elite 8 showdown in the East Region final. Sunday's tip is set for 5:05 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

The ACC's Tar Heels are set as 8.5-point favorites on game's current betting spread and the total line has been set at 137.5 points. The betting consensus on the spread heavily favors Saint Peter's at 69%. The current lean betting the total is towards the OVER at 59%.

Saint Peter's is a perfect 10-0 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the Peacocks' last 11 games played on Sunday.

North Carolina has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of its last 16 Sunday games.

Below is a link to Vegas Insider and my complete game preview and free betting play.

2022 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Matchup: Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina