Betting NBA Championship Futures

 The NBA's second season gets underway on May 18 with the Play-In Round of the 2021 playoffs. Teams finishing seventh to tenth in each conference's final regular season standings will play one another in a round robin format over the course of four consecutive days. The top two teams as far as winning percentage will advance to the conference quarterfinals as the seventh and eight seed.

While the added postseason round offers sports bettors an extra opportunity to cash a few winning game bets, none of those eight teams have a legitimate chance to win their respective conference title. The NBA is a league of elite superstars that dictate which teams can win a title and which teams are only along for the ride.

When Kevin Durant switched coasts to play in New York, the Brooklyn Nets suddenly became one of those teams. He was joined by Kyrie Irving and later James Harden to cement the Nets' status as the most talented team in the Eastern Conference.

The Philadelphia 76ers are led by Joel Embiid and the Milwaukee Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo as their elite superstar. However, neither team is projected to get past Brooklyn in the conference finals.

Wherever LeBron James has played, his teams have won championships. The addition of Anthony Davis made the Los Angeles Lakers the favorites to win last year's NBA title and the duo came through by meeting those expectations.

The defense of that title has not gone as expected with the Lakers tied for sixth place in the Western Conference standings. Any further slip would put the defending champs in the Play-In Round.

Yet, the updated NBA Championship betting futures still have the Lakers as the second team on the board at  +400 odds behind Brooklyn as a +200 favorite to win it all.

One of the wild cards on this list is the Los Angeles Clippers as +600 third favorites. After losing to the Denver Nuggets in last year's conference semifinals, they are still trying to prove that they are the best team in LA.

The fourth team on the board is the Utah Jazz at +700. The Jazz have the best record in the league (48-18) heading into the final few games of the regular season.

Milwaukee (+900) and Philadelphia (+1100) are next followed by the Phoenix Suns at +1200. The betting odds balloon to +2500 for Denver. Boston, Dallas and Miami are set as +4000 longshots.

Utah as the top seed does have a chance to win a conference title if you are looking for the best value in the West. The Jazz have been the most consistent NBA team all season long. 

Philly would be my "best bet" pick in the East as the No. 1 seed. The Sixers would greatly benefit from home court advantage in any series they played. They are 25-7 at home verse a 20-14 record on the road.

That being said, going chalk on the Nets to win this season's NBA Championship might make the most betting sense. That much star power gathered on one team has been a proven formula for success going back to the days when the Big Three propelled Miami to a few world titles.

2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Recap

 This past Saturday's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs lived up to expectations on a number of different levels. The return to the traditional first Saturday in May tops the list much like the Masters at Augusta back in early April.

Although the crowd was limited, live fans in attendance for horse racing's biggest event of the year added to the sense of normalcy that has been missing from the world of sports over the past 12 months.

The competition was superb. Once again, the results of the race prove that there is no such thing as a lock when it comes to betting on sports. Essential Quality finished fourth as a 5-2 favorite. Medina Spirit found his championship form at much longer 12-1 closing odds.

The race itself lived up to its billing as the most exciting two minutes in sports. The top three colts had to work hard to finish in the money and bettors going their way were rewarded for their handicapping skills.

I myself came away a winner on Saturday after cashing in bets on Medina Spirit as my Show horse in this race. I also wagered on Hot Rod Charlie to finish in the money. While I picked Essential Quality to win in my race preview, I backed away on any actual bets come Derby Day.

The Kentucky Derby is the Crown Jewel and the first of three races in the Triple Crown series for the best three-year old Thoroughbreds in this year's class.

Next, it is on to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore for the running of the Preakness Stakes. That leg of the Triple Crown is set for Saturday, May 15 as part of an excellent live card of racing at this track. 

The final leg is the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York This race is set for Saturday, June 5. Returning to a distance of 1 1/2 miles on the dirt track at Belmont, this will the toughest test if Medina Spirit can keep his Triple Crown run alive by winning the Preakness.

I will be handicapping the next two Triple Crown events as part of my weekly horse racing coverage for ScoresandStats.com as a highly popular sports betting information site. 

For this week's piece, I did an in-depth recap of the 2021 Kentucky Derby as well as an early look at the betting futures for the Preakness States. Below is the link to this post:

2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Recap

Trifecta Picks for 2021 Kentucky Derby

 The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs returns to the first Saturday in May for the 147th Run for the Roses. The 20-horse field is set for the best three-year old Thoroughbreds in the nation with post positions and morning line odds.

Covering horse racing for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStat.com, I was tasked with coming up with my best trifecta play for Saturday's featured event on a great card of horse betting action at Churchill Downs. 

Here is what I came up with:

First Place- Essential Quality (2-1)

It is hard not to go chalk on this Kentucky-bred favorite. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Luis Saez, he has done nothing but win over the course of his two-year racing career. As a juvenile, the son of Tapit won the Breeders' Futurity ahead of his impressive victory in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

He started his three-year old campaign by winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In his last Kentucky Derby prep, he placed first in the Blue Grass Stakes. Breaking from the No. 14 gate in Saturday's race, I fully expect to see his current winning streak reach six.

Second Place- Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)

Trained by Doug O'Neill, this Kentucky-bred colt will break from the favorable No. 9 gate with Flavian Prat as his jockey. Hot Rod Charlie caught everyone's attention as a two-year old with his stunning second-place finish in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland Race Course in nearby Lexington, Kentucky. 

I see history repeating itself this Saturday at Churchill Downs with another second-place run behind Essential Quality. Sired by Oxbow, the clincher for me was this colt's exciting first-place run in this year's Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in late March.

Third Place- Super Stock (30-1)

This is a change from my original trifecta play. I had Known Agenda in the Show position originally but after drawing the dreaded No. 1 post I am backing off the second-favorite at 6-1 odds. In his place, I am moving up Super Stock to third after picking him to round out the top four contenders in the expanded field.

Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr, he is going to need a clean break coming out of the No. 18 post. However, the son of Dialed In has the championship pedigree to run with the best three-year olds in the field. He proved that by winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn a few weeks ago.

2021 NFL Most Valuable Player Longshots

 History proves that the highest profile quarterbacks in the NFL are also the ones most likely to win each season's honor as the Most Valuable Player.

Aaron Rodgers won his third-career MVP award last season as quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. The season before, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson took top honors. Patrick Mahomes won the first of what should be multiple MVP trophies over the course of his career as quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019. Tom Brady took home his third career MVP award in 2018 while playing for the New England Patriots.

With more that a few veteran quarterbacks changing teams this offseason along with five new quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft, there is some value to be found in this year's NFL futures to win MVP for the 2021 season.

According to BetOnline sportsbook, Mahomes is the favorite to win at +500. Second on that list at +900 odds is Rodgers. Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills is a +1000 third-favorite as one of the up-and-coming QB's in the league.

As part of my weekly NFL coverage for the popular sports betting site, ScoresandStats.com, I dug deeper into the betting futures for 2021 NFL MVP to come up with three players that offer quite a bit of betting value at much longer odds. 

Here is the link to my three "best bet" longshots to win: 2021 NFL MVP: Three Longshot Picks

2021 NFL Draft- Betting Updated Quarterback Prop Bets

 Thursday's opening round of this year's college player draft in the NFL is bound to be filled with a few added surprises here and there. That is always the case with a few teams making a reach with their first pick while a few players fall lower than their expected draft ranking.

The NFL draft betting odds at all the top-rated sportsbooks heavily favor Trevor Lawrence to be the first overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. I always preach that there is no such thing as a lock when it comes to betting on sports. However, this is about as close as it gets with the former Clemson quarterback listed as a +10000 favorite. This means that you would have to wager $10,000 to make $100 on this draft prop.

Former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson is a heavy -5000 favorite to go to the New York Jets with the second overall pick on Thursday night.

There are three additional quarterbacks that should be drafted in the first round. With San Francisco in dire need of a new franchise quarterback, there is a good chance one of those players will come off the board next as the No. 3 pick.

The odds favor Mac Jones at -210 after leading Alabama to last season's college football national title. North Dakota State standout Trey Lance has seen his draft stock rise in recent weeks. He is listed at +250 odds as the second favorite to go third in the draft.

I still see quite a bit of value in Justin Fields, out of Ohio State at +300 odds to be the No. 3 overall pick on Thursday night. His stock has slipped in recent weeks but at one time he was the favorite in this prop.

With those five players off the board, the OVER/UNDER odds for total quarterbacks drafted in the first round heavily favors the UNDER on 5 1/2 at -500. The betting odds for the OVER are set at +300.

 While there is no clear choice when it comes to a sixth quarterback worthy of a first round selection, New Orleans might still reach for one with the 28th overall pick of the opening round. There is a definite need in light of Drew Brees' recent retirement.

Along with Fields going third to San Francisco and the OVER on 5 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, I covered a few props for running backs and wide receivers in a previous post for the popular sports betting news site ScoresandStats.com. Below is the link to those draft prop picks.

2021 NFL Draft First Round Prop Predictions: Skill Positions

2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

 With less than a week to go before this year's college player draft in the NFL, now is a great time to find some excellent value the NFL futures bet for 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Successfully wagering on this particular futures bet involves quite a bit of speculation since we do not even know where the names on this board will be playing next season.

The top players on the board at BetOnline sportsbook for offensive ROY are:

-- Trevor Lawrence +275

-- Justin Field +300

-- Zach Wilson +550

-- Ja'Marr Chase +1200

-- Mac Jones +1200

-- Trey Lance +1200

Five of the six players listed are quarterbacks and they are all expected to be drafted in the first round next Thursday night. Chase is the highest rated wide receiver in this year's class and the former LSU standout should come off the board within the first six picks.

If you are looking to go chalk with this bet, take Fields over Lawrence at slightly higher value. Most NFL mock drafts have him going to San Francisco as the third overall pick after Lawrence comes off the board first overall to Jacksonville.

The Jaguars dropped to 1-15 last season. It is going to take more than a new franchise quarterback to turn things around next season. Fields would be taking over a 49ers' offense that is just a few seasons removed from a NFC Championship run. The former Ohio State quarterback has a chance to make a major impact on this award's voters in the starting role at San Francisco.

When it comes to betting value deeper on the futures board for offensive ROY, Najee Harris (+1400) stands out as the best running back in this year's draft class. After posting a stellar career at Alabama, he is projected to be a late first round or early second round pick. Given his speed, size and overall talent, Harris is the type of back that can make an immediate contribution to his new team.

As part of my ongoing coverage of the 2021 NFL Draft for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, I took a close look at the betting value in this NFL futures in the following post: 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Picks

Find True Betting Value in MLB Dime Lines

 As part of a weekly betting strategy piece for the popular sports betting website Sports Betting Stats, I recently covered MLB Dime lines.

Most online sportsbook create a wider gap between the favorite and the underdog when it comes to MLB money line bets. For example, if you are betting the New York Yankees as -165 home favorites, you could be the other side of that matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays set as +145 road favorites.

An online book offering a MLB dime line on that same game might have the Yankees listed as -160 home favorites with the Rays set as +150 road underdogs. In either situation, there is added value in that bet. You would only have to risk $160 to win $100 betting New York. If you have Tampa Bay pulling off the upset, you can earn a $150 on that same $100 wager.

Saving $5 on the juice or earning another $5 on your overall return may not sound like much on a single bet. However, when you add it all up over the course of the 162-game MLB regular season plus the postseason run to the World Series, the savings/earnings would be substantial.

Here is the link for my complete breakdown of betting MLB Dime Lines at Sports Betting Stats.