Friday, April 30, 2021

Trifecta Picks for 2021 Kentucky Derby

 The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs returns to the first Saturday in May for the 147th Run for the Roses. The 20-horse field is set for the best three-year old Thoroughbreds in the nation with post positions and morning line odds.

Covering horse racing for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStat.com, I was tasked with coming up with my best trifecta play for Saturday's featured event on a great card of horse betting action at Churchill Downs. 

Here is what I came up with:

First Place- Essential Quality (2-1)

It is hard not to go chalk on this Kentucky-bred favorite. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Luis Saez, he has done nothing but win over the course of his two-year racing career. As a juvenile, the son of Tapit won the Breeders' Futurity ahead of his impressive victory in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

He started his three-year old campaign by winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In his last Kentucky Derby prep, he placed first in the Blue Grass Stakes. Breaking from the No. 14 gate in Saturday's race, I fully expect to see his current winning streak reach six.

Second Place- Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)

Trained by Doug O'Neill, this Kentucky-bred colt will break from the favorable No. 9 gate with Flavian Prat as his jockey. Hot Rod Charlie caught everyone's attention as a two-year old with his stunning second-place finish in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland Race Course in nearby Lexington, Kentucky. 

I see history repeating itself this Saturday at Churchill Downs with another second-place run behind Essential Quality. Sired by Oxbow, the clincher for me was this colt's exciting first-place run in this year's Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in late March.

Third Place- Super Stock (30-1)

This is a change from my original trifecta play. I had Known Agenda in the Show position originally but after drawing the dreaded No. 1 post I am backing off the second-favorite at 6-1 odds. In his place, I am moving up Super Stock to third after picking him to round out the top four contenders in the expanded field.

Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr, he is going to need a clean break coming out of the No. 18 post. However, the son of Dialed In has the championship pedigree to run with the best three-year olds in the field. He proved that by winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn a few weeks ago.



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