Friday, March 19, 2021

Betting Each Region Winner in the 2021 NCAA Tournament

 The 2021 NCAA Tournament got underway on Thursday night with the First Four Round. This leaves 64 teams across four regions to battle it out for this season's college basketball's national championship.

At the top of the list in the West Region as the tournament's No. 1 overall seed is the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The West Coast Conference Champions breezed through the regular season undefeated and they bring a perfect 26-0 record into the opening round.

The No. 1 seed in the East as the other region on the left side of the bracket is the Big Ten's Michigan Wolverines. Some of the value in their odds to march all the way to the Final Four was lost with a 2-3 record over their last five games. However, when Michigan is at its best, to would be a formidable obstacle in anyone's path to the national title.

On the right side of the bracket, the Big 12's Baylor Bears are the top seed in the South Region. This is another team that appeared to be unstoppable until a few late-season losses cut into its betting value to win it all.  

The No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region is the Illinois Fighting Illini. This is another Big Ten power in the strongest college basketball conference this season. Coming off a successful run to the conference tournament title, Illinois carries quite a bit of momentum into its quest for the national championship.

As part of my college basketball coverage for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats, I previewed all four regions in this year's Big Dance to come up with the best value in each team's betting odds gain a berth in the Final Four.

WEST REGION

EAST REGION

SOUTH REGION

MIDWEST REGION

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Betting the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals

 This Saturday afternoon, Lucas Oil Stadium will host the semifinal round of this season's Big Ten Tournament. 

National powers such as Michigan, Illinois and Iowa will try and move one step closer to locking down one of the four No. 1 seeds for the upcoming NCAA Tournament while also advancing to Sunday's championship game.

I have been covering Big Ten college basketball for Vegas Insider all season long. Below are links to my game preview and 'best bet' plays for each of today's Big Ten games.

Ohio State vs. Michigan (1 p.m. CBS)

Iowa vs. Illinois (3:30 p.m. CBS)

Saturday, March 6, 2021

2021 MLB Win Total 'Best Bets'

 One of the most popular preseason bets ahead of the new MLB season is on each team's projected win total. Making things even more exciting this year is the return of the full 162-game schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected win total (103 1/2) as the defending World Series Champions.

At the other end of the spectrum among the 30 MLB teams are the Colorado Rockies in the NL and the Baltimore Orioles in the AL with a projected win total of 63 1/2 games.

Each of these teams offer some added value to their betting odds based on their potential heading into the 2021 season. Breaking things down even further, I covered my "best bets" for MLB win totals in a recent post on Scores & Stats as one of the most popular sports betting sites around. Here is the link to my full betting preview.

                                                 2021 MLB Regular Season Win Totals


Saturday, February 27, 2021

Betting NBA Championship Futures at Season's Midpoint

The NBA's annual All-Star Game on Sunday, March 7 marks the halfway point of the 2020/2021 regular season. It also presents a great opportunity to revisit BetOnline's NBA futures odds to win this year's championship.

Los Angeles Lakers +280

As expected, the Los Angeles Lakers are the clear favorites to repeat. They are 23-11 through 34 games and 3.5 games out of first place in the Western Conference standings. There have been a few puzzling losses lately as part of a 5-5 record in their last 10 games. Yet, when the postseason rolls around, LeBron James and company will be ready for another deep run in the playoffs.

Brooklyn Nets +300

The one team that the betting public has been hot on this season is the Brooklyn Nets. Kevin Durant is playing close to his previous All Star form. Kyrie Irving is also a key contributor to the team's early success. The addition of James Harden through a trade with Houston in mid-January formed the new Big Three in the Eastern Conference. Heading into Saturday's home game against Dallas, the Nets have won their last eight games to improve to 22-12 on the year.

Los Angeles Clippers +550

The Clippers are three games off the pace in the West at 24-11 after winning seven of their last 10 games. They are once again positioned as the only real competition for the rival Lakers in that team's quest to get back to the NBA Finals. Hopefully, these two city rivals get a chance to settle things on the court this postseason in a best-of-seven playoff series.

Utah Jazz +700

The Jazz have been one of the bigger surprises through the first half of an amended 72-game season. They have already won 26 of their first 33 games to hold down the top spot in the Western Conference. It appears that Utah has the staying power to challenge the Lakers and the Clippers for the No. 1 seed in the West. This big question is winning four games in a best-of-seven playoff showdown against either of these two NBA powers.

Milwaukee Bucks +800

The Bucks were clear favorites to win the East for the past few seasons before Brooklyn added all the star power to its lineup. They are currently two games off the pace in the conference standings at 20-13. The big question mark surrounding this team is its ability to win in the postseason coming off earlier than expected exits from the playoffs the previous two seasons. Milwaukee may only be the third-best team in the East this season behind the Nets and the surprising Philadelphia 76ers.


For an extended look at the best betting value in BetOnline's NBA futures odds, please check out this week's post at Scores and Stats: Updated Odds to Win the 2021 NBA Championship.




Saturday, February 20, 2021

Early Betting Value in the NFL 2021 Super Bowl Futures

 Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still celebrating their victory in Super Bowl LV in sunny South Florida while the rest of the US freezes in a winter cold spell. Looking ahead to better times, the other 31 NFL teams are busy making plans for a Super Bowl run of their own in the 2021 season.

Most of those plans are, in reality, just dreams of winning Super Bowl LVI. The Kansas City Chiefs (+525) along with Tampa Bay at +600 are the clear favorites to win when it comes to BetOnline's NFL Super Bowl futures board.

The next two teams on the list are the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams. Each of these team's odds drop all the way to +1200 to win it all. The Buffalo Bills round out the Top 5 teams on the board at +1400.

Stock in the Rams has risen dramatically with the trade for former Detroit Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford. Bettors obviously believe that he could be the missing piece of the puzzle given the Rams' shutdown defense already in place.

From a value standpoint, they may be right. Just two seasons ago, Los Angeles won the NFC Championship on its way to a 13-3 loss to New England in Super Bowl LIII. After missing the playoffs in 2019, the Rams went 10-6 this past season to earn a wild card spot in postseason play. 

They lost to Green Bay 32-18 in the Divisional Round where it became obvious that Jared Goff could only take this team so far. Replacing him with Stafford is a major upgrade that automatically makes Los Angeles a legitimate Super Bowl contender out of the NFC.

The Buffalo Bills' main claim to fame was four-straight losses in the Super Bowl in the early 1990's. They remained quiet ever since until breaking through with a playoff berth in 2019. Last season's 13-3 run in the regular season was good enough to win their first AFC East title since 1995.

The Bills made it to the AFC title game where they lost to Kansas City 38-24. With Josh Allen appearing to be the real deal as Buffalo's franchise quarterback, the Bills could take another step forward in 2021. It remains to be seen how the Chiefs' lopsided loss in this year's Super Bowl impacts that team's fortunes moving forward.

At this point of the offseason, a bet on the Rams and Bills to win their respective conference championship might offer the best value on the NFL futures board.

Los Angeles is a +600 third-favorite behind Tampa Bay (+340) and Green Bay (+575) to win the NFC title in 2021.

Buffalo's odds to win the AFC title are the second-best on the board at +600 behind Kansas City as a +275 favorite.

The Rams' odds to win the NFC West are +160 as favorites. The Bills are heavy -155 favorites to win the AFC East again in 2021.

Friday, February 12, 2021

Betting Saturday's Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds

 The prep race season for the 2021 Kentucky Derby started last year with the top two-year old Thoroughbreds competing in a series of major graded races. The biggest race on the board was the annual Breeders' Cup Juvenile in early November.

Fast forward to this Saturday's extended race card at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans and the featured race of the day is one of this year's key Kentucky Derby preps in the month of February.

The $400,000 Risen Star is the next prep at this track leading up the the Louisiana Derby on March 20. Both races are Grade 2 major stakes events but the total prize purse for the Louisiana Derby jumps to $1 million. The three-race prep schedule at Fair Grounds starts with the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes which was previously run on Jan. 16.

The top three colts in that prep race are in the field for Saturday's Risen Star. The winner of the Lecomte will break from the No. 6 post at 6/1 odds on the morning line. Trained by by Steve Asmussen and ridden by jockey Joe Talamo, Midnight Bourbon is my top choice to win Saturday's main event.

Proxy finished second in the Lecomte. Trained by Michael Stidham, the son of Tapit will break from the No. 2 post in the 13-horse field. Veteran jockey John Velazquez adds value to this colt's 10/1 morning line odds to win.

The show horse in the Lecomte was Mandaloun. Trained by Brad Cox, he will break from the outside in gate No. 11 with jockey Florent Geroux on board. This colt actually has the best odds to win among this trio at 9/2.

While the both the place and show horse in the Lecomte have the ability to make things interesting on Saturday, I am going with Mandaloun as my second choice in the Risen Star

Breaking from the No. 5 post at 6/1 odds is Senor Buscador. He is trained by Todd Fincher with jockey Luis Quinonez getting the call. This colt closed out his juvenile season by winning the ungraded Remington Springboard Mile at Remington Park

Given the favorable starting gate, he should get a good jump on the field to work his way into the mix as a high-value show horse in the Risen Star.

2021 Risen Star Official Trifecta Bet

--Midnight Bourbon

--Mandaloun

--Senor Buscador

For additional coverage of this race, please check out my previews and predictions at:

ScoresandStats and Sports Betting Stats.

Saturday, February 6, 2021

Super Bowl LV Top Team & Player Prop Bets

 A good friend of mine in the sports betting industry is a famous pro handicapper in Las Vegas. He also works with a top-rated offshore sportsbook in setting prop bet odds for any number of sporting and non-sporting events. The other day he sent me a list of Super Bowl LV betting options that included more than 1,100 different props.

As the biggest single-day betting event of the year, the Super Bowl has taken on a life of its own when it comes to betting props. You can basically separate Super Bowl props into one of four categories:

-- Scoring Props

-- Team Props

-- Player Props

-- Novelty Props

A fifth category would be cross-sport props that compare an aspect of the Super Bowl with another sport such as Tom Brady touchdown throws vs. Tampa Bay Lighting goals scored.

To keep my sanity this week, I narrowed down my top prop picks to Team and Player options only. Here are a pair of links to my best bets for the popular betting site Sport Betting Stats.

Super Bowl LV Top Team Props

Super Bowl LV Top Player Props

As far as the game itself, here is another link to my official Super Bowl LV game preview and prediction for another popular betting site Scores and Stats.

Super Bowl LV Preview & Picks

Enjoy the big game!!!