Saturday, February 20, 2021

Early Betting Value in the NFL 2021 Super Bowl Futures

 Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still celebrating their victory in Super Bowl LV in sunny South Florida while the rest of the US freezes in a winter cold spell. Looking ahead to better times, the other 31 NFL teams are busy making plans for a Super Bowl run of their own in the 2021 season.

Most of those plans are, in reality, just dreams of winning Super Bowl LVI. The Kansas City Chiefs (+525) along with Tampa Bay at +600 are the clear favorites to win when it comes to BetOnline's NFL Super Bowl futures board.

The next two teams on the list are the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams. Each of these team's odds drop all the way to +1200 to win it all. The Buffalo Bills round out the Top 5 teams on the board at +1400.

Stock in the Rams has risen dramatically with the trade for former Detroit Lions' quarterback Matthew Stafford. Bettors obviously believe that he could be the missing piece of the puzzle given the Rams' shutdown defense already in place.

From a value standpoint, they may be right. Just two seasons ago, Los Angeles won the NFC Championship on its way to a 13-3 loss to New England in Super Bowl LIII. After missing the playoffs in 2019, the Rams went 10-6 this past season to earn a wild card spot in postseason play. 

They lost to Green Bay 32-18 in the Divisional Round where it became obvious that Jared Goff could only take this team so far. Replacing him with Stafford is a major upgrade that automatically makes Los Angeles a legitimate Super Bowl contender out of the NFC.

The Buffalo Bills' main claim to fame was four-straight losses in the Super Bowl in the early 1990's. They remained quiet ever since until breaking through with a playoff berth in 2019. Last season's 13-3 run in the regular season was good enough to win their first AFC East title since 1995.

The Bills made it to the AFC title game where they lost to Kansas City 38-24. With Josh Allen appearing to be the real deal as Buffalo's franchise quarterback, the Bills could take another step forward in 2021. It remains to be seen how the Chiefs' lopsided loss in this year's Super Bowl impacts that team's fortunes moving forward.

At this point of the offseason, a bet on the Rams and Bills to win their respective conference championship might offer the best value on the NFL futures board.

Los Angeles is a +600 third-favorite behind Tampa Bay (+340) and Green Bay (+575) to win the NFC title in 2021.

Buffalo's odds to win the AFC title are the second-best on the board at +600 behind Kansas City as a +275 favorite.

The Rams' odds to win the NFC West are +160 as favorites. The Bills are heavy -155 favorites to win the AFC East again in 2021.

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