When league and Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed a huge contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs this past offseason, betting props were posted for how many Super Bowl titles this duo would win over the next 10 years.
The Chiefs have the inside track to winning title No. 2 this year as the reigning Super Bowl Champions. America's Bookie online sportsbook has Kansas City listed as a +210 Super Bowl favorite ahead of this weekend's first round of playoff games.'
Mahomes and the Chiefs will be idle in the Wild Card Round as the top seed in the AFC. They also have home field advantage throughout the conference championship game when they do return in next weekend's Divisional Round of games.
Kansas City posted a 14-2 record in the regular season on its way to the top seed. It is sure to be favored in any postseason game it plays, including Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7 in Tampa Bay. Given the decent +210 return in their odds, it is hard to find a good reason to go against the Chiefs when betting NFL Super Bowl futures.
The one reason at the top of my list is the simple fact that there is no such thing as a 'lock' when betting on anything. Any Given Sunday was a popular football movie with Al Pacino and Jamie Foxx. It is also the reason why online sportsbooks such as America's Bookie make so much money every year with the betting public chasing favorites.
Looking at the rest of the playoff teams on the Super Bowl futures list, the next one from the AFC is Buffalo Bills at +575. They are one of the hottest NFL teams heading into the postseason at 9-1 straight-up in their last 10 games. The Bills are also a cold weather team that can adapt well to playing in Kansas City in the middle of January.
As a relatively inexperienced bunch on the league's second-biggest stage, I am not sure Buffalo has what it takes, just yet, to knock off Kansas City in the conference title game.
My top-value team to bet is the Green Bay Packers as +450 second-favorites to win Super Bowl LV. Most of their value is tied to one player.
Two-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers possesses the same intangibles that Mahomes has already demonstrated in his first four years in the league. Leading that list is the ability to elevate their game when needed the most.
The big difference is Rodgers' vast edge in experience. He is trying to win his second Super Bowl title as Green Bay's starter for the past 13 seasons. That is the kind of motivation that adds quite a bit of value to the Packers' +450 odds to win it all.
For a closer look at the Super Bowl futures for each of the 14 teams in this year's NFL postseason, here is a link to a piece I wrote for the popular sports betting website ScoresandStats.com.
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