Handicapping The 2020 Rebel Stakes

The 2020 Kentucky Derby Trail presses on towards forming the 20-horse field for this year’s Kentucky Derby. One of the biggest races on the trail this Saturday is the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.

A field of eight three-year old thoroughbreds will compete for a total prize pool of $1 million. Saturday’s race will be contested on the dirt track at Oaklawn over a distance of 1 1/16 miles.

Highlighting the 2020 Rebel field is famed trainer Bob Baffert’s Nadal. The three-year old Kentucky-bred colt is already considered one of the early favorites to win this year’s Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 9 over seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park.

He also won a 6 ½-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at that track on Jan. 19 to kick off his racing career. Veteran jockey Joel Rosario is slated to be onboard for this race.

The biggest competition should come from trainer Steve Asmussen’s Silver Prospector. This Kentucky-bred colt is a bit further down the list when it comes to the Kentucky Derby futures odds posted at America’s Bookie online sportsbook.

He comes into the Rebel fresh off a victory in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb. 17. Covering the 1 1/16 mile distance in 1:43.1, the sire of Declaration of War made his way past Wells Bayou and Answer In.

Silver Prospector ran an extensive juvenile schedule highlighted by a victory at Churchill Downs on Nov. 30 in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He finished in the money in four of six races as a two-year old. Look for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. on the mount in Saturday’s main event.

Rebel Stakes ‘Best Bet’ Exacta and Trifecta Play

I plan to go chalk with Nadal and Silver Prospector in an exacta bet. Expanding the play to the three-horse trifecta, adding Basin as the Show horse makes the most sense. His career has been on pause since posting an impressive victory in last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga on Sept.2. He completed the seven-furlong sprint in 1:23.48 past Shoplifted and Gozilla.

This Kentucky-bred colt is also trained by Asmussen as one of his three entries in this race. It is hard to know what to expect in his three-year old debut at a much longer distance. Yet, I do beleive this is still one of the top three contenders in the limited eight-horse field. Veteran jockey Javier Castellano adds even more value to his chances to finish in the money.