My 5 Contenders for the Kentucky Derby

These five horses have morning line odds and my prediction to win this stakes race in percentage points. I also have the top three contenders to win, place and show as a bonus pick.

Forte (3-1)

This three-year-old colt has been a favorite to win the Kentucky Derby ever since he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4 as a two-year-old. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Forte won a pair of major graded stakes at Gulfstream Park this year. He finished first in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4 and he topped the field in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 1.

Sired by Violence, he finished first in six of seven races in his early career (fourth in the Grade 3 Stanford Stakes in mid-July last year). Forte has shown the pedigree and power to finish strong in the backstretch at 1 ¼ miles on dirt. He is starting at the No. 15 gate at Churchill Downs with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr..

Percent to Win: 60%

Tapit Trice (5-1)

As a Kentucky-bred colt racing for Whisper Hill Farms and Gainesway Stable, Tapit Trice has won races at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Keeneland Race Course as a three-year-old. He finished first at Keeneland on April 8 in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes to cement his rating (7.89) at Horse Racing Nation.

In that race at Keeneland, Tapit Trice covered 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:50.00 over Verifying and Blazing Sevens. Also trained by Todd Pletcher, he drew the No. 5 gate at Churchill Downs and Luis Saez will be his jockey.

Percent to Win: 20%

Angel of Empire (8-1)

As a son of Classic Empire, he finished first or second in five races out of the six in his competitive career. Angel of Empire won his last two races as a three-year-old. He finished first at Fair Ground on Feb. 18 in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes before winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 1.

Trained by Brad Cox  and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat, Angel of Empire will start the Kentucky Derby at the No. 14 gate. He has increased the distance and grade of this event, but his HRN rating of 7.70 will make him one of the legitimate contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

Percent to Win: 5%

Practical Move (10-1)

With Tim Yakteen as the trainer and jockey Ramon Vazquez leading him out of the No. 10 gate, Practical Move is in pretty good position to make a run for the money in the Kentucky Derby. He won back-to-back races at Santa Anita Park by finishing first in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 4 before taking first in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8.

Sired by Practical Joke, he climbed the ladder in his 7.67 rating at HRN with his two victories out on the West Coast.

Percent to Win: 5%

Kingsbarns (12-1)

As a son of Uncle Mo and trained by Todd Pletcher, Kingsbarns has an 8.02 HRN rating from his last win at Fair Grounds. He finished first in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 25 by covering the 1 3/16 mile on dirt in 1:57.33. His competitive career as a three-year-old created wins in the one-mile Allowance race at Gulfstream Park and a Maiden Special Weight race at Tampa Bay Downs covering 1 mile and 40 yards.

Starting at No. 6 at Churchill Down in the Kentucky Derby with jockey Jose Ortiz, Kingsbarns is a live longshot to finish in the money in this race.

Percent to Win: 10%

Kentucky Derby Bonus Pick:

$50 on Forte to Win

$25 on Tapit Trice to Place

$25 on Kingsbarns to Show

Previously posted at Doc's Sport Service

Is Legal Online Sports Betting Coming to North Carolina?

North Carolina's House of Representatives approved a bill allowing 10 to 12 online sportsbooks to set up shop in the state. If the state Senate follows suit, Governor Roy Copper could sign HB 347 into law and legal online sportsbooks might be operating next year.

State Representative Jason Saine introduces HB 347 for the legislative session in late winter and he  recently commented:

"We've learned a good bit from both sided about some of the tweaks that needed to happen. We've worked to accommodate those concern, and we believe we have a bill can that can do better than pass. It can get support from both caucuses"

Doc's Sports Service has all the details in the post, Are Legal Online Sports Betting Sites Coming to North Carolina?

5 Tips of Horse Racing Bets

 Whether you are betting the Kentucky Derby or the race card at the local track, these five tips for wagering on horse racing come to mind when picking out the winners. It is both a science and an art to know and understand which horses are a cut above the rest in running the race around the track on dirt and on turf.

Handicap Your Odds on Horse Race Betting

You have the basic positions of which horses will win, place and show. Also, you have exotic positions referred as the exacta, trifecta and superfecta in a horse race. These positions are bets within the particular race in the daily card. They all have money pools as part of the para-mutual waging on horse racing here in the US.

There are multiple bets in a race card known as the Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6. A common goal is to pick the winner in consecutive race cards throughout the day at the same horse track. These multiple wagers in the same horse bet have separate money pools as well at the live horse track, an off-track betting facility and online with a betting site.

You can handicap your odds for the different types of  bets to want to play for the daily race card. If you only want to pick a win, place or show position, you can focus on the favorite, a few legitimate contenders and one or two longshots. If you want to pick an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, you can focus your attention to two, three or four horses in the same race. From live race tracks that offer the Daily Double all the way to the Pick 6 bet, you can pick winners for consecutive multiple races in the card.

Find Out Your Daily Horse Track Conditions

Most horses run in fast conditions at the track in dry weather, but a few horses do better with sloppy conditions at a wet track. You have to find out your daily track conditions whether you are at the facility itself or betting the track from an off-track venue or online from a betting site.

The track conditions applies to racing on dirt and turf. You can finds a horse that prefers a sloppy track if it is raining or wet . It is important to change track conditions from dry to wet as the race card progresses.

Make Note of  the Trainer and Jockey of Your Horses

Along with the horse you want to focus on, the trainer and the jockey are important for this race as well in the daily card. The trainer has a win-loss record at every main horse track in the US. They can make a big difference over the span of the horse’s competitive career. The jockey rides the horse and he can also make a difference in that race, good or bad.

Understand the Tangible and Intangible Factors

Here are tangible factors that needs to be considered in a race including the position in the starting gate, blinkers on or off and dirt vs. turf as a riding surface. The intangible factors in a race are layoffs between two events, raising or dropping in the class of the race and medication (Lasix and Bute).

Know How Skill and Luck Work Hand-to-Hand

Winning a horse race is a combination of skill and luck. You need skill to pick out the horses in a race and you need luck to have the right breaks fall their way. From the odds-on favorite to the live longshot, a certain amount of skill and luck will guide you along with your picks at the horse track.

Previously posted on ScoresandStats.com

 

Probable Entries for the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby

Friday, May 5

Kentucky Oaks - Churchill Downs

Wet Paint

Hoosier Philly

Wonder Wheel

Flying Connection

Pretty Mischievous

Botanical

Defining Purpose

And Tell Me Nolies

Dorth Vader

Southlawn

Mimi Kakushi

Gambling Girl

The Alys Look

Affirmative Lady

Promiseher America

Saturday,  May 6

Kentucky Derby - Churchill Downs

Fornte

Kingsbarns

Tapit Trice

Practical Move

Angel of Empire

Two Phil's

Derma Sotogake

Mage

Mandarin Hero

Disarm

Reincarnate

Rocket Can

Verifying

Hit Show

Lord Miles

Jace's Road

Continuar

Raise Cain

Confidence Game

Sun Thunder

Wild On Ice

MLB's Athletics are Moving to Las Vegas

 Last Wednesday night on April 19, Athletics' President Dave Kaval said that the team signed an agreement to purchase land in Las Vegas near the Strip to build a retractable roof stadium in the next few years. The first pitch in the new Las Vegas ballpark is scheduled to take place in the 2027 season.

The president of the Athletics commented:

"For a while, we were on parallel paths with Oakland, but we have turned our attention to Las Vegas to get a deal here for the A's and find a long-term home...Oakland has been a great home for us for over 5 years, but we really need this 20-year saga completed and we feel there's a path in Southern Nevada to do that."

The term of the lease in Oakland expires in 2024, so the team will move to the A's AAA team (Las Vegas Aviators) home venue until the new stadium is completed. The new ballpark is just west of T-Mobile Arena and Interstate 15.

Doc's Sports Service has all the details in the post, The MLB's Athletics Plan to Move to Las Vegas.

NFL East 2023 Draft Picks

Philadelphia Eagles

Round 1: No. 10 (from New Orleans)

Round 1: No. 30

Round 2: No. 62

Round 3: No. 94

Round 7: No. 219 (from Houston)

Round 7: No. 248

Dallas Cowboys

Round 1: No. 26

Round 2: No. 58

Round 3: No. 90

Round 4: No. 129

Round 5: No. 169

Round 6: No. 212

Round 7: No. 244

New York Giants

Round 1: No. 25

Round 2: No. 57

Round 3: No. 89

Round 4: No. 128

Round 5: No. 160

Round 5: No. 172

Round 6: No. 209 (from Kansas City)

Round 7: No. 240 (from Baltimore)

Round 7: No. 243

Round 7: No. 254

Washington Commanders

Round 1: No. 16

Round 2: No. 47

Round 3: No. 97

Round 4: No. 118

Round 5: No. 150

Round 6: No. 193

Round 6: No. 215

Round 7: No. 233

Previously posted at NBC Sports

Five Aspects of Being a Professional Handicapper

There are many differences between a recreational sports betting fan and a professional sports handicapper. A typical sports fan that wants to bet on the game or event is 50/50 on being right or wrong in their decision. The professional handicapper needs to be right an average of 52.5 percent (or higher) to make a living out of their sports betting decisions.

A winning record on the sports predictions is only one of five aspects of being a professional handicapper. All five aspects are listed below if you want to make sports picks as a pro.

A Minimum Winning Record

You only have to be right with your sports picks on an average of 52.5% to be a professional handicapper. That percentage is based on odds of -110 which allows the sportsbooks to charge 10%. The ambitious pro handicapper touts the fact that over 75% of the picks are right, but there is a limited time frame to their statement.

Most pro handicappers generally fall between 55% to 60% in their sports picks on a continuous basis. They include a point spread between a favorite and underdog, the over or under on the total line and money line odds in a straight-up contest. These are documented sport predictions under a reputable sports service offering picks for the game or event.

Be careful in picking out a pro handicapper with a high percentage of right selections. They could be taking heavy favorites to boost their claim of right picks.

Paying for the Pro’s Sports Picks

Free picks from a pro handicapper is a promotional incentive to get an avid betting hooked on the daily, weekly or monthly package of selections that they pay for. A pro handicapper makes money in their right picks as betting on the game or event, but the real advantage comes with selling their selections to the betting public.

The typical pro handicapper is part of a sports betting service. The reputable sports service uses common transactions such as credit and debit cards, a bank wire and money transfer services. Progressive sports betting services also use Bitcoin to process money transfers in a safe and secure environment.

A legitimate professional handicapper can apply their services for any reputable sports betting service. The business transaction between the pro handicapper and the avid betting public via the sports betting service is performed all the time with very few glitches and problems.

Transparency in a Pro Handicapping’s Sports Predictions

One of the most important aspects of a professional handicapper is transparency. The pro handicapper should document their sports predictions whether they are a free pick or rolled up in a paid daily, weekly, or monthly package.

As an avid sports betting fan, there are ways to track and monitor the selections. Also as a sports bettor is interested in transparency, there will be a way to see the published report on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.

As a professional handicapper, transparency should be relevant in the short-term and long-term sports picks. Checking references and publishing the results should also be done as a form of transparency for the pro handicapper.

Finding Value in the Handicapping Profession

If a recreational bettor is serious about their return of investment from betting on the sports games or sporting events, they will want a professional handicapper to lend insight to those picks. Sometimes, they can pickup what they need from a free pick. Other times, they will pay for the pick in a daily, weekly or monthly package.

Either way, avid sports bettors find value in a pro handicapper’s prediction on the particular game or event. There is a great deal of potential in a pro handicapper’s pick and the value should meet the cost. A professional handicapper can make a living out of the perceived value in their sports prediction.

Money Management with a Professional Handicapper’s Sports Selections

If an avid sports bettor is paying for a professional handicapper’s pick, they will also get a unit bet on the game or event. An average sports pick comes with the individual sports service’s recommendation. If the average pick has three or four units, the elevated pick has seven or eight units.

Money management and the unit pick on the game or event is a common practice in a professional handicapper’s paid selection. Their probable confidence of the selection is evident in the units bet per game or event. The promotional tool of the selection is laid out with the units bet and the set result.

The success (or failure) of a pro handicapper often lies with big-unit plays for big-time games or events with national television audience.

All Five Aspects Make Up One Good Professional Handicapper

These five aspects of a pro handicapper rolled up in the definition of someone that is an expert in how they perceive each individual sports betting game and/or event. They take a detailed and calculated view of the situation and plug in probable results in the outcome. If they like what they see, the game or event is worth another look.

The main difference between an avid sports betting fan and a professional sports handicapper is an objective viewpoint. The avid sports betting fan lets a bias stance creep in to make a bet. The pro handicapper takes an objective path to the stats, facts and recent betting trends. These come together and form a probable situation for the outcome.

All five aspects make up a good professional handicapper, but they must be objective in their approach to picking the particular game or event. The pro handicappers often call this intuition on who will win (or lose) the contest. This intuition is based on the knowing and understanding the stats, facts and recent betting trends along with the probability of the situation.

A pro handicapper basically does this work for a living. They cover all the scenarios that both teams (or individuals) possess alongside the tangible and intangible situations they will encounter. Above all, they make an objective and probable outcome of the individual sports game or sporting event based on the intuition they have.

Previously posted on RDG Corporation