I came up with five
horses to keep a close eye in the Louisiana Derby with morning line odds at
Fair Grounds and my percentage to win.
Instant
Coffee (2-1)
Trained by Brad
Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, he is breaking out of the No. 2 gate for the
Louisiana Derby. His three-year debut was a victory at Fair Grounds in the
Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 21. As a son of Tapit, he covered 1 1/16 miles
on dirt in 1:45.12 in front of Two Phils and Confidence Game.
Instant Coffee
was bred in Kentucky and he has raced for Gold Square, LLC. He went 1 1/16
miles on dirt in his last three competitive events at Keeneland, Churchill
Downs and Fair Grounds.
Winning
Percentage: 55%
Sun Thunder
(5-1)
Sired by Into
Mischief, the Kentucky-bred colt placed second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes
at Fair Grounds on Feb. 18. He finished fourth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes
on Jan. 21 at Oaklawn Park prior to that. Sun Thunder is trained by Kenneth
McPeek and he is starting in this race at No. 4 with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
He covered at
least one mile on dirt in this previous three races at Oaklawn Park and Fair
Grounds. However, Sun Thunder is overpriced in his 5-1 odds on the morning line
at the Louisiana Derby.
Winning
Percentage: 5%
Kingsbarns
(6-1)
After not
competing as a two-year old, Kingsbarns went two-to-two with pair of first
place finishes in a one-mile Allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14 and 1
miles and 40 yards in a Maiden Special Weight race at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb.
12. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat at the No.
6 gate in the Louisiana Derby.
Kingsbarns is
upgrading the distance and grade for this race. However, his pedigree of Uncle
Mo going back to Indian Charlie sets up well in the backstretch.
Winning
Percentage: 20%
Tapit’s
Conquest (10-1)
This
Kentucky-bred colt is also trained by Brad Cox and he raced at Saratoga,
Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. He finished second at Fairs Grounds in a 1
1/16 miles Allowance race on Jan. 21 before placing fourth in the Grade 2 Risen
Star on Feb. 18 at this same horse track. At least I could say that Tapit’s
Conquest has home track advantage at Fair Grounds.
He is starting
the Louisiana Derby at No. 9 with jockey Manuel Franco getting the ride. As the
son of Tapit, he has the potential to finish in the money in this race.
Winning
Percentage: 15%
Shopper’s
Revenge (12-1)
Starting at No.
1 gate with Ricardo Santana as his jockey, Shopper’s Revenge is long odds on
the morning line for the Louisiana Derby. He is trained by Steve Asmussen and
he has a rating of 5.89 for Horse Racing Nation. As a three-year old colt,
Shopper’s Revenge finished second in a 1 1/16-mile Allowance race at Oaklawn on
Feb. 18 after the winner Airtime. He won a 1 1//16 Maiden Special Weight at
this track on Jan. 14 of this year.
Sired by Tapit,
he is a live longshot to make some noise in the backstretch of this race, but
he will probably finish second or third if breaks fall his way.
Winning
Percentage: 5%
Previously posted at Doc' Sports Service