Betting Saturday's Trio of Kentucky Derby Preps

 With the calendar turning the page to April, horse racing takes center state each spring leading up to the annual Kentucky Derby as the Crown Jewel of the Triple Crown racing series for the best three-year old Thoroughbreds in the nation.

I have been covering this year's Kentucky Derby Trail with race previews and predictions for the entire prep race schedule. This Saturday's race card offers coast-to-coast horse racing action as that prep season comes to a close. 

Reprinted below via permission of ScoresandStats.com is my preview and winning predictions for this Saturday's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.

Winning Picks for This Saturday’s Trio of Kentucky Derby Preps

The last big round of Kentucky Derby prep races for this year’s class of prized three-year old Thoroughbreds will be run this Saturday at three famous horse racing tracks across the nation.

Starting on the East Coast at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York is Saturday’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial with a total prize purse of $750,000. Covering 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, the field is still coming together for this race with nine horses listed as probable at Horse Racing Nation.

Moving to the home of Thoroughbred racing in the US,  the opening weekend of spring horse racing at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky is highlighted by Saturday’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes with $1 million in prize money up for grabs. HRN has identified nine contenders as probable for another 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep race on the dirt.

Finishing up Saturday’s prep race schedule on the West Coast is the annual Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park in Southern California. This Grade 1 event covers 1 1/8 miles on the dirt with a total prize purse of $750,000. Ahead of the post position draw, HRN has listed six contenders as probable including Animal Kingdom as one of the early favorites to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Wood Memorial – Aqueduct Racetrack

Win: Morello

Coming off a win at Aqueduct in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 5, this three-year old colt is the one to beat in this Saturday’s race. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he is a perfect three-for-three in his early racing career. Sired by Classic Empire, he comes into this race with an impressive HRN rating of 7.18 which is the highest in the projected field.

One to Watch: Early Voting

Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Gun Runner won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct his last time out. He covered the 1 1/8 miles distance in that race with a winning time of 1:55.9 past Un Ojo and Gilded Age.

Bluegrass Stakes – Keeneland Race Course

Win: Smile Happy

This three-year old colt should be the favorite to win on the morning line. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he slipped to second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds his last time out on Feb. 19 after winning a pair of races as a juvenile. Sired by Runhappy, he is definitely the class of field for the Blue Grass.

One to Watch: Zandon

Taking third in the Risen Star, he has the best chance to upset the favorite on Saturday. He closed out his juvenile campaign with a second-place finish at Aqueduct in last year’s Grade 2 Remsen Stakes for added home track advantage is Saturday’s featured event.

Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita Park

Win: Forbidden Kingdom

I have a strong lean towards this Kentucky-bred colt in Saturday’s race coming off his win at Santa Anita on March 5 in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. Trained by Richard Mandella, the son of American Pharoah will be going for the Santa Anita trifecta after winning the Grade 3 San Vicente Stakes in this three-year old debut.

One to Watch: Messier

With a strong HRN rating of 7.51, the son of Empire Maker can give the favorite a tough battle in this race. Trained by Tim Yakteen, this three-year old Canadian-bred colt won the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 6.

 

North Carolina vs. Duke Final Four Preview & Betting Picks

One of college basketball's all-time great rivalries will be renewed on Saturday night with the North Carolina Tar Heels tangling with the Duke Blue Devils in the back half of this year's Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. on TBS from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Duke is currently favored by four points on the spread with the betting line for the total set at 151 points. These two ACC foes met twice in the regular season with the road team winning both straight-up and against the spread.

The Tar Heels are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and more importantly 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke. The total has gone OVER in six of those 10 meetings.

In what should be an epic battle for a spot in Monday night's NCAA Tournament championship game, I see this game staying closer than the four-point spread. With both teams playing at a very high level, scoring should be high enough to take to total OVER on that betting line.

For my full game preview and official "best bet" pick, the link below is to VegasInsider as the premier source for sports betting insight in the nation.

North Carolina vs. Duke

Arkansas Derby & Florida Derby Preview and Picks

The following race preview has been reposted via permission from ScoresandStats.com 

Betting Saturday’s Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby

The first Saturday of horse betting in April does not get any bigger than this with the running of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Both races are Grade 1 major stakes events that will go a long way towards setting the final field of 20 three-year old Thoroughbreds for this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 7.

The total prize purse for the 1 1/8 miles run on the dirt at Oaklawn has been set at $1.25 million. That field is set with eight colts and one filly listed as entered.

The prize money up for grabs in the Florida Derby is $1 million for the 1 1/8 miles run on Gulfstream’s dirt track. With the field still coming together, it appears that up to 10 colts will be gunning for that coveted title.

Breaking down the top contenders in each of these races, below are my top picks to finish in the money.

Saturday, April 2

2022 Arkansas Derby- Oaklawn Park

Win- Secret Oath

Opened as a 5-2 favorite on the morning line, the lone three-year old filly in the field appears to be the one to beat. Trained by D Wayne Lucas, she drew the No. 6 post for this race with Luis Contreras as her jockey. Coming off a victory in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn on Feb. 26, she has now won her last three races at this park for some serious home track advantage.

Place- Un Ojo

This three-year old colt was my “one to watch” in last month’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and he stunned the field by winning that race. Trained by Rickie Courville, he will break from the No. 5 post on Saturday with jockey Ramon Vazquez. Opened at longer 6-1 odds on the morning line, Un Ojo would definitely be my top-value play in this race.

Show- We The People

Moving to the far outside No. 9 post at 7-2 odds, the son of Constitution will have Flavien Prat on board as his jockey. Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, this Kentucky-bred colt caught my attention with a recent victory at Oaklawn in a 1 1/16 miles Allowance Claimer on March 12. This will be the three-year old’s first major graded stakes event but he is ready to make his mark with a late bid to qualify for the Kentucky Derby field.

2022 Florida Derby- Gulfstream Park

Win- Simplification

Coming off a solid victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on March 5, I have to go with the Florida-bred colt in this race. Trained by Antonio Sano, the son of Not This Time appears to be the most complete contender in the projected field with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 7.55.

Place- Charge It

Trained by Todd Pletcher, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt looked sharp his last time out in a victory at Gulfstream in a one mile Maiden Special Weight race on Feb. 12. The son of Tapit will be stepping up in class this Saturday in his first major graded event. However, I believe he is up to the task of competing for the win.

Show- Pappacap

Sired by Gun Runner and trained by Mark Casse, this Florida-bred colt is one of the more experienced contenders in the field. Coming off a poor showing in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19, he is ready to redeem himself after placing third earlier this year in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at that same track. Pappacap’s biggest claim to fame is a third-place run in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina Elite 8 Betting Preview & Picks

The Cinderella Saint Peter's Peacocks are looking to extend their amazing run in this year's NCAA Tournament all the way to to the Final Four with a victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels in an Elite 8 showdown in the East Region final. Sunday's tip is set for 5:05 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

The ACC's Tar Heels are set as 8.5-point favorites on game's current betting spread and the total line has been set at 137.5 points. The betting consensus on the spread heavily favors Saint Peter's at 69%. The current lean betting the total is towards the OVER at 59%.

Saint Peter's is a perfect 10-0 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the Peacocks' last 11 games played on Sunday.

North Carolina has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of its last 16 Sunday games.

Below is a link to Vegas Insider and my complete game preview and free betting play.

2022 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Matchup: Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina

2022 Louisiana Derby Race Preview & Betting Picks

 The following race preview is reposted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Field of Nine Set for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby

Saturday’s Louisiana Derby closes out the last Saturday of major graded horse racing in the month of March. This Grade 1 event is the biggest Kentucky Derby prep race of the season at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans.

With $1 million up for grabs in total prize money, nine three-year old contenders have been entered into Saturday’s field. The competition for this year’s title runs deep with just two longshots in the field based on the opening morning line odds. The race will be contested on the dirt track at Fair Grounds covering a total distance of 1 3/16 miles.

Backed by some of the best trainers in the game, the following is a look at my top three picks to finish in the money in Saturday’s featured event.

Saturday, March 26

2022 Louisiana Derby- Fair Grounds Race Course

Post Time: 6:44 p.m. (ET)

Win: Epicenter

Coming off an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19, it would be hard to go against the morning line favorite at 7-5 odds. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the three-year old Kentucky-bred colt with break from the No. 6 post on Saturday with jockey Joel Rosario.

The son of Not This Time has won three of his last four races going back to a Maiden Special Weight race at Churchill Downs in mid-November of last year. He started this year by placing second in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. His winning time in the Risen Star over 1 1/8 miles on dirt was 1:49.03 past Smile Happy and Zandon.

Place: Call Me Midnight

The Kentucky-bred colt did not run in this year’s Risen Star after winning the Lecomte Stakes in his three-year old debut. With jockey James Graham getting the call on Saturday, he will break from the No. 3 post in this race as a 6-1 third-favorite on the morning line.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, the Midnight Lute sire posted a winning time of 1:44.36 in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte. He was able to work his way past Epicenter in that race to set up the head-to-head rematch this Saturday. Busy as a juvenile, Call Me Midnight raced six times last year with mixed results. He finished in the money in two of those events.

Show: Pioneer of Medina

Famed trainer Todd Pletcher’s top entry in Saturday’s field will break seventh with Tyler Gaffalione as his jockey. The son of Pioneerof the Nile has been opened as a 5-1 second-favorite to win. He has the third-highest Horse Racing Nation rating in the field of nine at 5.71.

This Kentucky-bred colt faded out of the money his last time out by taking fourth place in the Risen Star last month. This followed a victory at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22 in his three-year old debut. He won an Allowance Claimer at 1 1/16 miles by covering that distance on dirt in 1:45.21. Pioneer of Medina closed out his two-year old campaign with a victory in a 1 mile 40 yard Maiden Special Weight race at Tampa Bay Downs on Dec. 22.

One to Watch

Breaking from the favorable No. 5 post, my one to watch in this race is trainer William Calhoun’s Kupuna at 8-1 odds on the morning line. He took second in an Allowance Claimer at Fair Grounds on Feb. 22.

 

Richmond vs. Providence NCAAB Game Preview & Picks

The Richmond Spiders pulled off one of the first big upsets in this year's NCAA Tournament with Thursday's 67-63 victory over Iowa as 9.5-point underdogs. This win followed the Spiders' three-game run to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament title the week before.

As the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region bracket, Richmond will face the No. 4 Providence Friars in Saturday's 6:10 p.m. tip at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The winner of this game will advance to next week's Sweet 16 round of the Big Dance.

The Spiders have been opened as three-point underdogs against the Big East's regular season champions. The total line for this game is set at 134.5 points.

Richmond is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games against a team from the Big East and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five games closing as an underdog. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the team's last eight games overall.

Providence has won 13 of its last 16 games SU and it is 4-2 ATS in its last six outings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its last six games against a team from the Atlantic 10. It has also stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games played in March.

This should be one of the closer matchups on Saturday's slate with the Spiders playing at a high level while also bringing quite a bit of momentum into this game. Providence went 14-3 straight-up in the Big East this season but a troubling loss to Creighton in the conference tournament opens the door for another big upset by the Spiders later this Saturday afternoon.

The link below to Vegas Insider, as the ultimate betting resource for this year's NCAA Tournament, contains my complete game preview and "best bet" pick.

                                                        Richmond vs. Providence 

Betting Saturday's Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park

 This race preview/picks is reposted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Oaklawn Park’s Essex Handicap Highlights Saturday’s Betting Action

The 2022 Kentucky Derby prep schedule takes a break this weekend ahead of a fantastic finish leading up to the annual Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 7. However, Oaklawn Park in Arkansas is the place to be this Saturday for some major graded racing action featuring a solid group of veteran Thoroughbreds.

This year’s Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes gets things started on Saturday’s card as the first featured event. Open to horses four years and older, this six-furlong sprint on the dirt track at Oaklawn offers a total prize purse of $200,000.

The featured graded stakes event on Saturday’s card at Oaklawn is the $500,000 Essex Handicap. Open to Thoroughbreds four and older, this Grade 3 race covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. There are eight horses list as entered in what would have to be considered a field deep in talent.

Going through all eight entries for this year’s Essex Handicap, the following three are my personal “best bets” to finish in the money.

Saturday, March 19

2022 Essex Handicap- Oaklawn Park

Win: Plainsman

Backed by a victory the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap on February 12 at Oaklawn, this seven-year old horse immediately caught my eye as the top choice for Saturday’s main event. On paper, he is not the best horse in the field according to Horse Racing Nation ratings. However, he has been able to finish in the money in his last six races including three winning efforts

Starting from gate No. 4 with jockey Joel Rosario, the son of Flatter is one of two entries in this race trained by Brad Cox. With the win his last time out, Plainsman has now either won or finished second in three of his last four races at Oaklawn Park.

Place: Warrior’s Charge

Also trained by Brad Cox, this six-year old Florida-bred veteran race horse will break from the No. 3 post for this race with jockey Florent Geroux leading the way. He has not raced since late January where he won a 1 1/16 mile Allowance Claimer at Oaklawn.

Over the course of an extended racing career, the son or Munnings has had a great deal of success at Saturday’s track. Going back over his last seven competitive events dating back to September of last year, he has finished in the money in five of those seven races. Given the level of experience Warrior’s Charge brings into this race gives him a significant edge in this field.

Show: Popular Kid

Rounding out my top three entries for this race, I decided to go with another horse that has a strong history of success at this track. Trained by Shawn Davis, he will break from the favorable No. 5 post on Saturday with Franciso Arrieta as his jockey. As one of the older horses still racing competitively, this eight-year old still has excellent speed and stamina.

He placed third in last month’s Razorback Handicap after closing out last season with a victory in the ungraded Jeffery A. Hawk Memorial Stakes at Remington Park. In that victory, he covered the 1mile, 70 yard distance on dirt in 1:43.35. Sired by Popular, his best performances over the course of an extended racing career have come at the 1 1/16 miles distance of Saturday’s event.