Betting Picks for Two of Saturday's Key Kentucky Derby Props

 My horse racing predictions for each of these races have been posted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Two Key Kentucky Derby Preps Highlight Saturday’s Horse Betting Card

The month of March may be big for betting college basketball. Yet, this month also ranks high on the list when it comes to wagering on major graded prep races for May’s Kentucky Derby.

The first stop on this Saturday’s race card is Gulfstream Park in South Florida for this year’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. This 1 1/16 miles run on the dirt has 13 three-year old Thoroughbreds listed as entered. Top trainers such as Dale Romans and Todd Pletcher have a major stake in the outcome of this race.

Heading out to the West Coast and Santa Anita Park in Southern California, trainers Doug O’Neil and Bob Baffert have loaded up the field with top contenders to win the 2022 Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. This 1 1/16 miles major stakes event has seven three-year old colts listed as entered.

Taking a closer look at each of these races, here are my “best bets” to finish in the money at both parks this Saturday.

Saturday, March 5

Gulfstream Park- $400,000 Fountain of Youth

Win: Mo Donegal

Breaking from the outside in the No. 12 position, this Kentucky-bred colt has the highest Horse Racing Nation rating in the field at 6.57. Sired by Uncle Mo, he is coming off a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream in early February. Mo Donegal is one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s top three-year old prospects heading into the Triple Crown racing season. Veteran jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will get the ride in Saturday’s race.

Place: Rattle N Roll

This Kentucky-bred colt will be making his three-year old debut on Saturday after closing out his juvenile campaign with a victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland back in early October. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, the son of Connect with break sixth with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.

Show: Giant Game

Coming off a disappointing fade to eighth in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 25, trainer Dale Romans is looking for a much stronger effort this time around. The Kentucky-bred three-year old with break from the No. 10 post with Corey Lanerie as his jockey. The son of Giant’s Causeway placed third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar.

San Anita Pack- $400,000 San Felipe Stakes

Win: Forbidden Kingdom

As a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, the son of American Pharoah appears to be the class of this seven horse field. Trained by Richard Mandella, he drew the No. 6 post for Saturday and Juan Hernandez will be on board as his jockey. He made his three-year old debut by winning the Grade 3 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 29.

Place: Happy Jack

The No. 1 horse in this race is trained by Doug O’Neill with Abel Cedillo as his jockey. The son of Oxbow slipped to fifth in this year’s Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita early last month but he is better than that showing. At 5.34, he has one of the higher HRN ratings in Saturday’s field.

Show: Amagnac

All eyes will be on this three-year old colt as one of two entries trained by Bob Baffert. Relatively inexperienced, he opened up his three-year old campaign with a victory in a Maiden Special Weight Race at Santa Anita earlier this year. Sired by Quality Road, he will start third with John Velazquez as his jockey.

 

Newgrange Headlines Saturday's Rebel Stakes Field at Oaklawn Park

 The following race preview/picks for the 2022 Rebel Stakes is reposted via permission of ScoresandStats.com

Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Led by Favorite Newgrange

February’s Kentucky Derby prep race schedule closes things out with an exciting showdown in this year’s $1 million Rebel Stakes. This Saturday’s featured event on Oaklawn Park’s live racing card is the lead-in event for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at this same track on April 2.

The Rebel is a Grade 2 stakes race covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Oaklawn. The field has been set with 11 entries. However, this race is shaping up as a head-to-head battle between the top two favorites.

After going through the entire list of three-year old contenders on the betting board, the following three entries would be my top picks to finish in the money. Post time for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes is 6:22 p.m. (ET).

Saturday, Feb. 26- Oaklawn Park

2022 Rebel Stakes

Win: Newgrange

Coming into Saturday’s race as the 5-2 favorite on the morning line, this Kentucky-bred colt is one of trainer Bob Baffert’s prized three-year old Thoroughbreds this year’s class. The son of Violence has gone a perfect three-for-three in his brief racing career, including two victories this year in a pair of graded Kentucky Derby prep races.

After winning the one mile Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on New Year’s Day, he raced at Oaklawn at the end of January. Placing first in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, he covered the 1 1/16 miles on dirt in 1:45.83 past Barber Road and Ben Diesel. Both of these colts are in the field for the Rebel. Newgrange will break from the No. 2 post with jockey John Velazquez.

Place: Chasing Time

My second choice for Saturday has a legitimate chance to win as well with 7-2 odds on the morning line. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will start No. 8 and jockey Tyler Gaffalione will get the ride. Sired by Not This Time, he made his three-year old debut with a victory at Oaklawn in a one mile Allowance Claimer on Jan. 14.

This will be Chasing Time’s first appearance in a graded stakes race. However, he has already demonstrated the speed and ability to compete in a much deeper field. Last year as a juvenile, he finished in the money in three of four events in various races at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs.

Show: Ben Diesel (10-1)

Coming off that third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, I have this three-year old Kentucky Bred colt as my show horse in a very talented second tier of contenders in this race. Opening at 10-1 odds, he will break from the No. 7 post on Saturday with Jon Kenton Court as his jockey.

Sired by Will Take Charge, this colt’s juvenile career was highlighted by a victory at Churchill in a Maiden Special Weight Race in late October. This was followed up with a solid fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at that same track. Ben Diesel made his three-year old debut by slipping to seventh in the ungraded Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan. 1.

One to Watch

In what should be a head-to-head battle between Newgrange and Chasing Time, one other colt to watch in this year’s Rebel Stakes would be Un Ojo as a 15-1 live long shot on the morning line.

Saturday Horse Racing: Risen Star "Best Bet" Picks

 This post has been reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

The 2022 Risen Star Stakes Highlight’s Saturday’s Card at Fair Grounds

A key prep race leading up to this year’s Louisiana Derby is this Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. This Grade 2 stakes race is also an important stop on this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail.

The eventual winner in the field of 10 three-year old Thoroughbreds listed as entered will take a major step up the betting board to win this year’s “Run for the Roses” on Saturday, May 7. A number of the top trainers in the nation also have a vested interest in the outcome of Saturday’s main event.

With $400,000 in total prize money on the line plus valuable Kentucky Derby qualifying points, this 1 1/8-mile trip around the dirt track at Fair Grounds should be a highly competitive race. The post positions have been drawn and the following three colts are my top plays to finish in the money.

Saturday, Feb. 19- Fair Grounds Race Course

2022 Risen Star Stakes

Win- Epicenter

This Kentucky-bred colt made his three-year old debut with a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22. That race was won by Call Me Midnight, who is not in Saturday’s field. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Epicenter will break from the No. 5 post with Joel Rosario as his jockey. He has been opened at 4-1 odds on the morning line.

The son of Not This Time closed out his juvenile campaign by winning the ungraded Gun Runner Stakes at this same track on Dec. 26. He covered the 1 1/16 miles on dirt in 1:44.19 past Tejano Twist and Surfer Dude. In a total of four career starts, Epicenter has finished in the money three times.

Place- Smile Happy

Saturday’s race will be this Kentucky-bred colt’s first event as a three-year old. He won his only two races last year, including the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27. The son of Runhappy posted a winning time of 1:43.94 in that 1 1/16-mile run on dirt past Classic Causeway, who just won last week’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Smile Happy has been opened as a 7-2 favorite to win this year’s Risen Star. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he drew the No. 8 post for Saturday and jockey Corey Lanerie will get the ride. He started his racing career with a victory in a 1 1/16-mile Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland on Oct. 29. His winning time in that race was 1:44.75.

Show- Zandon

Starting from the No. 7 post on Saturday with jockey Jose Ortiz on board, Zandon is listed at 9-2 odds on the morning line. This is another Kentucky-bred colt that will be making his three-year old debut in this race. Trainer Chad Brown has high expectations for the son of Upstart after a strong but limited showing last year.

He opened up his racing career with a victory in a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Belmont Park on Oct. 9. He covered that distance on dirt in 1:10.61. Running in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 4, Zandon placed second behind Mo Donegal in a race that covered 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track at Aqueduct. Midnight Chrome was the show horse in that race.

 

 

Super Bowl LVI Top Player Props

 This post has been reprinted through permission of SportsBettingStats.com

Super Bowl LVI “Best Bet” Props

Bettors are lucky that there are a full two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl. Given the sheer amount of betting props on the board, it would take that long just to read through the list.

Working a few of the top online sportsbooks for betting Super Bowl LVI, I stuck to the basics to come up with four prop bet picks tied to kicking, passing, receiving and running the ball in Sunday’s big matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams.

Top Super Bowl LVI Kicking Prop

I like the -120 odds that Cincinnati kicks the first field goal in this game. However, my top pick zeroed in on the OVER/UNDER on the length of the longest field goal in Super Bowl LVI.

The yardage has been set at 47.5 yards with the betting odds favoring the OVER at -125. The betting odds that the longest field goal in the game stays UNDER 47.5 yards are set at -105.

Every single point is going to count in a tight matchup from beginning to end. This is especially true for the Bengals as underdogs. Cincinnati kicker Evan McPherson routinely makes field goals from 50 yards out as another big plus for betting the OVER in this prop.

Top Super Bowl LVI Passing Prop

The game should revolve around the play of the quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is playing at a high level for Cincinnati in just his second season in the NFL. As a weathered veteran, Matthew Stafford knows that this may be his last chance to win a Super Bowl title.

With a grocery list of passing prop bet options, I am keeping things simple with the OVER on Joe Burrow’s total passing attempts at -115 odds.

The total is set at 36.5 attempts which happens to mirror his average through three previous postseason games. Burrow has put the ball up 109 times in those three games and he has completed 75 of those passes.

On the NFL’s biggest stage, The Bengals are going to have to lean more heavily on their passing game to pull off the upset which should translate to more than 36.5 passing attempts.

Top Super Bowl LVI Receiving Prop

My top prop in this category is tied more to scoring than catching the ball. Prop odds are posted for the receivers in this game scoring a touchdown. The Rams’ Cooper Kupp has -175 odds to score and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase’s odds are set at +110.

I decided to stretch the odds a bit and go with the +125 odds that LA wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. makes his presence known in this game with a touchdown.

Top Super Bowl LVI Rushing Prop

Joe Mixon is the top rusher for Cincinnati in the playoffs with 190 yards on 52 rushing attempts through three games. The Rams have leaned on Cam Akers through their three-game run to the Super Bowl. He has gained 151 yards running the ball 54 times.

The big difference between the two teams is a much heavier reliance on Mixon running the ball for Cincinnati. He is the team’s running game. LA also has Sony Michel to take some of the burden off Akers as the primary back.

As far as Super Bowl rushing props, I will take the -110 odds that Mixon scores a touchdown in this game. If the Bengals get anywhere near the goal line, you can almost guarantee that Mixon is getting the call. Although a small play on Burrow’s +500 odds that he will score a touchdown also makes good betting sense.

 

Super Bowl LVI Top Bets on the Total Line

 This post has been reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

Top 3 Super Bowl LVI Total Line Bets

There are almost an endless amount of ways to bet on Super Bowl LVI between the surprising Cincinnati Bengals as AFC Champs and the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams. Using just the total line alone for this game, there is some excellent value all across the betting board.

In closing out this NFL season’s top plays on the total line, I have singled-out my Top 3 “best bets” to cash a winner in this Sunday’s game.

Super Bowl LVI 1^st Half Total – UNDER 23.5

Throughout this year’s playoffs, we have watched more than a few slow starts on the scoreboard. Mirroring a heavyweight fight, each team turned to defense to feel out its opponent through the first two quarters of the game.

I see the same type of scoring pace in the first half of Super Bowl LVI. I would definitely go with a field goal as the first score of the game if your are betting that prop. With a number of stalled drives and elevated play on defense, I could easily see the Rams take a slight lead into halftime in a low scoring game, maybe 13-10.

Super Bowl LVI Cincinnati Bengals’ Total – OVER 23

Both of these offenses will save the main fireworks for the second half. Joe Burrow has been playing like a seasoned veteran for Cincinnati at quarterback throughout his team’s three-game postseason run. He does not appear to be intimidated by the size of the stage in the NFL postseason and I do not think he will be fazed by the enormous stage in this game.

That being said, I am not sure the Bengals can seal the deal with the straight-up win. Yet, they will be gunning for points right up until the final second ticks off the clock. The biggest benefit for taking Cincinnati’s total OVER 23 points is the way the Rams tend to give up points in the second half of games. If I had to put an actual number to this pick, I would probably settle in at 24 points.

Super Bowl LVI Game Total – OVER 49

The total line for Super Bowl LVI opened at 49.5 points and it was quickly bet down to 48.5. In the days leading up to the game, the total appears to have settled in at 49 points across a number of different online sportsbooks.

The Rams’ total line was set at 27 points with Cincinnati’s line set at 23. This reflects the four-point spread between the favorite and the underdog. All of these betting lines are spot on and about as sharp as it gets for the biggest game of the year.

Anything can happen in a Super Bowl and no bettor has a crystal ball to accurately predict how everything will play out. However, these two teams should play true to form on Sunday in a tight matchup through all four quarters.

My heart is rooting for the underdog on Sunday at SoFi Stadium and I do believe that the Bengals will cover with the current four-point spread. I also believe that the margin of victory ends up three points either way.

However, there is something about Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense that points to the three-point win with a final score ending up 27-24 to take the total OVER 49 points.

 

 

Betting Tampa Bay Downs' Sam F. Davis Stakes

 This horse racing preview was reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

The Sam F. Davis Stakes Highlights Saturday’s Card at Tampa Bay Downs

The 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail heads to Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday for the only major prep race on this weekend’s horse racing schedule. The featured event on that live card is the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes for three-year old Thoroughbreds.

With $250,000 in total prize money and Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line, this stakes race will cover 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Tampa Bay.  The early field at Horse Racing Nation has 12 probable contenders taking a shot at winning this year’s event. Breaking down the current list ahead of the official starting order, the following three colts jump off the page for my Win-Place-Show bets.

Saturday, Feb. 12

Sam F. Davis Stakes – Tampa Bay Downs

Win: Classic Causeway

This is the best probable entry in the field on paper with a HRN rating of 5.76. I also happen to think that the son of Giant’s Causeway will win this race if he runs. Trainer Brian Lynch has been eyeing the Sam F. Davis for his colt’s thee-year old debut ever since he placed second in last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27.

The Kentucky-bred colt started his racing career with a victory in a Maiden Special Weight event at Saratoga in early September. He covered the seven furlongs on dirt in 1:22.67. He went on to take third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity  at Keeneland on Oct. 9. He finished behind Rattle N Roll and Double Thunder, who are considered top contenders on this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail.

Place: Shipsational

My second choice for Saturday’s main event posted an impressive run in his last race as a juvenile to win the ungraded Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct. 30. He covered the mile on dirt in 1:38.32. Bred in New York, he has won three of four events at Belmont and Saratoga. Trainer Edward Barker is more than interested to see what he can do on this Florida track.

Sired by Midshipman, a win on Saturday would go a long way towards his Kentucky Derby aspirations. This will be the first graded event of his young career, but Shipsational has already proved that he knows how to win. This will also be his first race over one mile. However, he has shown the late speed to handle the extra distance.

Show: Golden Glider

Hopefully, trainer Mark Casse gives his three-year old Kentucky-bred colt the green light to run on Saturday. He immediately caught my eye in the probable field with a recent victory at Tampa Bay in his 2022 debut. Running in a 1 mile 40 yard Allowance Claimer on Jan. 7, he bested the field with a winning time of 1:41.24. I am excited to see what he can do against a much stronger field in a graded event.

The son of Ghostzapper actually started his racing career at Woodbine in Toronto. He won a 1 1/16 miles Maiden Special Weight race at that track on Nov. 27 in his only event as a juvenile. Golden Glider posted a winning time of 1:45.25 on the synthetic turf at Woodbine. He comes into this race with a respectable 5.23 rating at HRN.

VI's College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan at Purdue

 This Saturday's betting action in Big Ten college basketball features a classic matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers. Tip off on FOX is set for 2:30 p.m. (ET) from Mackey Arena is West Lafayette.

The Boilermakers have been opened as 8.5-point home favorites with the total line set at 145 points

The Wolverines have had a rough go of things this season while Purdue has established itself as a legitimate contender for a national title. However, looks may be deceiving with Michigan holding a straight-up 7-3 edge in the last 10 meetings while going 9-1 against the spread.

As part of this weekend's college basketball betting coverage for Vegas Insider, below is a link to my full game preview and "best bet" pick for this matchup.

Michigan at Purdue