Super Bowl LVI Top Bets on the Total Line

 This post has been reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

Top 3 Super Bowl LVI Total Line Bets

There are almost an endless amount of ways to bet on Super Bowl LVI between the surprising Cincinnati Bengals as AFC Champs and the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams. Using just the total line alone for this game, there is some excellent value all across the betting board.

In closing out this NFL season’s top plays on the total line, I have singled-out my Top 3 “best bets” to cash a winner in this Sunday’s game.

Super Bowl LVI 1^st Half Total – UNDER 23.5

Throughout this year’s playoffs, we have watched more than a few slow starts on the scoreboard. Mirroring a heavyweight fight, each team turned to defense to feel out its opponent through the first two quarters of the game.

I see the same type of scoring pace in the first half of Super Bowl LVI. I would definitely go with a field goal as the first score of the game if your are betting that prop. With a number of stalled drives and elevated play on defense, I could easily see the Rams take a slight lead into halftime in a low scoring game, maybe 13-10.

Super Bowl LVI Cincinnati Bengals’ Total – OVER 23

Both of these offenses will save the main fireworks for the second half. Joe Burrow has been playing like a seasoned veteran for Cincinnati at quarterback throughout his team’s three-game postseason run. He does not appear to be intimidated by the size of the stage in the NFL postseason and I do not think he will be fazed by the enormous stage in this game.

That being said, I am not sure the Bengals can seal the deal with the straight-up win. Yet, they will be gunning for points right up until the final second ticks off the clock. The biggest benefit for taking Cincinnati’s total OVER 23 points is the way the Rams tend to give up points in the second half of games. If I had to put an actual number to this pick, I would probably settle in at 24 points.

Super Bowl LVI Game Total – OVER 49

The total line for Super Bowl LVI opened at 49.5 points and it was quickly bet down to 48.5. In the days leading up to the game, the total appears to have settled in at 49 points across a number of different online sportsbooks.

The Rams’ total line was set at 27 points with Cincinnati’s line set at 23. This reflects the four-point spread between the favorite and the underdog. All of these betting lines are spot on and about as sharp as it gets for the biggest game of the year.

Anything can happen in a Super Bowl and no bettor has a crystal ball to accurately predict how everything will play out. However, these two teams should play true to form on Sunday in a tight matchup through all four quarters.

My heart is rooting for the underdog on Sunday at SoFi Stadium and I do believe that the Bengals will cover with the current four-point spread. I also believe that the margin of victory ends up three points either way.

However, there is something about Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense that points to the three-point win with a final score ending up 27-24 to take the total OVER 49 points.

 

 

Betting Tampa Bay Downs' Sam F. Davis Stakes

 This horse racing preview was reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com

The Sam F. Davis Stakes Highlights Saturday’s Card at Tampa Bay Downs

The 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail heads to Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday for the only major prep race on this weekend’s horse racing schedule. The featured event on that live card is the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes for three-year old Thoroughbreds.

With $250,000 in total prize money and Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line, this stakes race will cover 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Tampa Bay.  The early field at Horse Racing Nation has 12 probable contenders taking a shot at winning this year’s event. Breaking down the current list ahead of the official starting order, the following three colts jump off the page for my Win-Place-Show bets.

Saturday, Feb. 12

Sam F. Davis Stakes – Tampa Bay Downs

Win: Classic Causeway

This is the best probable entry in the field on paper with a HRN rating of 5.76. I also happen to think that the son of Giant’s Causeway will win this race if he runs. Trainer Brian Lynch has been eyeing the Sam F. Davis for his colt’s thee-year old debut ever since he placed second in last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 27.

The Kentucky-bred colt started his racing career with a victory in a Maiden Special Weight event at Saratoga in early September. He covered the seven furlongs on dirt in 1:22.67. He went on to take third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity  at Keeneland on Oct. 9. He finished behind Rattle N Roll and Double Thunder, who are considered top contenders on this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail.

Place: Shipsational

My second choice for Saturday’s main event posted an impressive run in his last race as a juvenile to win the ungraded Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct. 30. He covered the mile on dirt in 1:38.32. Bred in New York, he has won three of four events at Belmont and Saratoga. Trainer Edward Barker is more than interested to see what he can do on this Florida track.

Sired by Midshipman, a win on Saturday would go a long way towards his Kentucky Derby aspirations. This will be the first graded event of his young career, but Shipsational has already proved that he knows how to win. This will also be his first race over one mile. However, he has shown the late speed to handle the extra distance.

Show: Golden Glider

Hopefully, trainer Mark Casse gives his three-year old Kentucky-bred colt the green light to run on Saturday. He immediately caught my eye in the probable field with a recent victory at Tampa Bay in his 2022 debut. Running in a 1 mile 40 yard Allowance Claimer on Jan. 7, he bested the field with a winning time of 1:41.24. I am excited to see what he can do against a much stronger field in a graded event.

The son of Ghostzapper actually started his racing career at Woodbine in Toronto. He won a 1 1/16 miles Maiden Special Weight race at that track on Nov. 27 in his only event as a juvenile. Golden Glider posted a winning time of 1:45.25 on the synthetic turf at Woodbine. He comes into this race with a respectable 5.23 rating at HRN.

VI's College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan at Purdue

 This Saturday's betting action in Big Ten college basketball features a classic matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers. Tip off on FOX is set for 2:30 p.m. (ET) from Mackey Arena is West Lafayette.

The Boilermakers have been opened as 8.5-point home favorites with the total line set at 145 points

The Wolverines have had a rough go of things this season while Purdue has established itself as a legitimate contender for a national title. However, looks may be deceiving with Michigan holding a straight-up 7-3 edge in the last 10 meetings while going 9-1 against the spread.

As part of this weekend's college basketball betting coverage for Vegas Insider, below is a link to my full game preview and "best bet" pick for this matchup.

Michigan at Purdue 

Betting Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park

 This horse racing preview was reprinted via permission from ScoresandStats.com

Top Three Picks for Saturday’s Holy Bull at Gulfstream

The first Saturday in February kicks off an important month on the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail.  The Grade 3 Withers Stakes for three-year old Thoroughbreds highlights Saturday’s live race card at Aqueduct in New York and Florida’s Gulfstream Park offers a trio of graded events for up and coming three-year old Thoroughbreds.

My early pick for this year’s Withers would be trainer Chad Brown’s Early Voting. The first prep race at Gulfstream this Saturday is the Grade 3 Claiborne Swale Stakes covering seven furlongs on dirt. As that field continues to come together, trainer Todd Pletcher’s My Prankster stands out from a list of eight probable entries

Moving on to the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes, this race extends out to 1 1/16 miles on the turf track at Gulfstream. A solid play in this race would be Coinage if trainer Mark Casse gives him the green light to run.

The main event on Saturday’s card at Gulfstream is the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes with a total prize purse of $250,000 along with Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the top four finishers. This field is still taking shape as well with nine contenders listed as probable by Horse Racing Nation. The following are my top three picks to finish in the money in this 1 1/16 miles run on the dirt.

Saturday, Feb. 5

Holy Bull Stakes – Gulfstream Park

Win- Giant Game

This Kentucky-bred colt comes into this race with the highest HRN rating (6.60) in the projected field. He will be making his three-year old debut after closing out last year with a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in early November.

Trainer Dale Romans has been looking for the right spot to get his run at the Kentucky Derby started and the son of Giant’s Causeway is in excellent position to get his second career victory. He won a 1 1/16 miles Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland last October as a juvenile.

Place- Mo Donegal

Pletcher’s top entry in this race is another solid bet to finish in the money. The Uncle Mo sire closed out his two-year old campaign by winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 4. He covered the extended 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:53.61 past Zandon and Midnight Chrome.

His finishing strength at that length should serve him well in Saturday’s race at the shorter distance. In three races as a two-year old, Mo Donegal finished inside the money in each event. He comes into this race with a solid 6.45 rating by HRN.

Show- Tiz The Bomb

This is one of my favorite colts turning three this year. I have him in the show position for Saturday, but the son of Hit It A Bomb is more than capable of pulling off the win. The big question for this race is the transition to dirt after placing second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Trainer Ken McPeek has been looking forward to the Holy Bull for his three-year old debut on dirt. The first two races of his career were on dirt tracks before moving to turf to win the ungraded Kentucky Down Juvenile Mile in early September of last year. Tiz The Bomb went on to win the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes on the turf at Keeneland on Oct. 10.

VI's Top Sunday College Basketball Bets

 Sunday's sports betting slate is highlighted by the AFC and NFC championship games starting at 3 p.m. (ET) with the Cincinnati Bengals on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. Later in the day, the San Francisco 49ers will tangle with the rival Los Angeles Rams for a spot in Super Bowl LVI out of the NFC.

To help set the plate for all the NFL betting action, I have posted a pair of links to my Vegas Insider game preview and "best bet" pick for two of college basketball's biggest early afternoon showdowns.

The first game is a Big Ten clash between the No. 16 Ohio State Buckeyes and the No. 6 Purdue Boilermakers at 12 p.m. on CBS. Purdue has been opened as a 9.5-point home favorite with the total set at 146 points.

At 12:30 p.m. over on FS1, a pair of nationally ranked teams in the Big East face off against one another with the No. 22 Marquette Golden Eagles going on the road as two-point underdogs to Providence to play the No. 17 Friars. The total line for this matchup has been set at 138 points.

Below are the links at Vegas Insider for my complete game preview and betting pick for each of these NCAAB contests.

Ohio State at Purdue

Marquette at Providence

NFL Conference Championships Top Bets on the Total Line

 The NFL's version of the Final Four tee off this Sunday in the AFC and NFC. This postseason has been filled with surprises in the quest to earn a spot in Super Bowl LVI. The No. 1 seed in each conference was set packing early and upstarts such as the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers are just one win away from making that dream a reality.

Unfortunately for Bengals' fans, the Kansas City Chiefs stand in their way for the AFC title. The 49ers face a familiar foe in the NFC Championship with their third meeting of the season against the rival Los Angeles Rams.

Covering the NFL for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, my job all season was to release the "best bets" on the NFL total. Through permission of the site, below are my two total line picks for Sunday's games.

OVER/UNDER Picks for Sunday’s NFL Conference Championships

The online sportsbooks cleaned up during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs with three of four underdogs winning their game straight-up. The total also stayed UNDER the closing line in all three of those stunning upsets.

With the NFL postseason field down to the final four teams, this Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championships will set the stage for an eventual showdown in Super Bowl LVI. Putting my handicapping skills to test for each matchup, here are my “best bet” picks on the NFL total line.

Sunday, Jan. 30

AFC Championship

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 54.5

Cincinnati has to be the biggest surprise in this next round of the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Bengals were able to grind out a last-second 19-16 road win against No. 1 Tennessee in a game that stayed well UNDER the 48.5-point closing line. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last six games.

Kansas City outlasted Buffalo in overtime to advance to its fourth-straight AFC Championship. The total went well OVER 54 points in that 42-36 thriller. The total has now gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last seven games this season.

Sunday’s game is a rematch of a Week 17 clash in which the Bengals prevailed 34-31 closing as 3.5-point home underdogs. The total went OVER 51 points in that game. That betting line has been bumped up to 54.5 points for this meeting with the early betting consensus leaning heavily towards the OVER.

I would tend to agree with the bet on the OVER since the only way Cincinnati is going to win this game is by outscoring the high-powered Chiefs’ offense. Stopping them on defense does not appear to be an option. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Kansas City’s last seven home games against the Bengals, but you can heavily discount that trend with Joe Burrow at quarterback for Cincinnati and Patrick Mahomes under center for the Chiefs.

NFC Championship

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: UNDER 46.5

San Francisco will be going for the three-game season sweep over the NFC West rival LA Rams. The first meeting on Nov. 15 stayed UNDER 50 points in the 49ers’ 31-10 victory at home. In the final game of the regular season, San Francisco erased a 17-0 first half deficit to beat the Rams on the road 27-24. The total went OVER 46.5 points in that game.

LA almost blew another huge lead in Sunday’s 30-27 squeaker against Tampa Bay. All the pressure in the world is on the Rams in this Sunday showdown as 3.5-point home favorites, but it is extremely hard to beat any NFL team three times in the same season, especially when it is a bitter division rival.

My lean in this game is on the 49ers with the crucial half-point edge on the 3.5-point spread. I see this as a three-point game either way. My “best bet” pick for the NFC Championship is the UNDER on the current 46.5-point total line. This is also going to be a tight play either way.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of San Francisco’s last seven games. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings between these two teams.

 

Betting Saturday's Pegasus Gold Cup at Gulfstream Park

 One of the biggest horse races of the year takes place this Saturday in terms of total prize money. The field is set for the $3 million Pegasus Gold Cup on the live card at Gulfstream Park. In what should be a head-to-head battle between two champion Thoroughbreds, I have dug deep into the entire nine-horse field to come up with three contenders that should finish in the money.

My preview and picks for all of Saturday's biggest stakes races was originally posted on the popular sports betting website ScoresandStats.com. It has been reprinted below via permission of this site.

Top Betting Picks for Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park

Saturday’s jam-packed betting board for horse racing features two major graded stakes races on the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail starting with the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Dash Attack appears to be the colt to beat in the field of 12.

Moving to Santa Anita Park, a field of nine is listed as probable for the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Franklin One Star appears to be the top choice with the highest Horse Racing Nation rating in that projected field. However, my “best bet” in the San Vicente would be Forbidden Kingdom if trainer Richard Mandella decides to run the son of American Pharoah in Saturday’s race.

Saturday’s main event for horse bettors is set for Gulfstream Park with the running of the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational. This Grade 1 race covers 1 1/8-miles on the dirt and it is open to Thoroughbreds four and older. A field of nine contenders are listed as entered.

Complementing that Grade 1 event on Saturday’s live card at Gulfstream is the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. This major graded stakes race has a total prize purse of $1 million. With the field set at 12 for this 1 1/8-mile run on the turf, I am stretching the odds with the No. 5 horse. Hit the Road opened at  8-to-1 odds on the morning line as a solid value pick.

Getting back to Saturday’s main event, the following are my top three horses to finish in the money in the 2022 Pegasus Gold Cup Invitational.

Saturday, Jan. 29- Gulfstream Park

Pegasus Gold Cup Invitational

Win: Life Is Good

This four-year old colt has been opened as a 7-5 second-favorite to win on the morning line. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he has been idle since winning the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar last November. Sired by Into Mischief, he will break from the No. 4 post on Saturday with Irad Ortiz Jr. as his jockey.

Over the course of his three-year racing career, Life Is Good has never finished out of the money. In limited events, he has posted five victories and one second-place finish. While a mile is his preferred distance, this colt should stay neck and neck with the favorite right across the finish line.

Place: Knicks Go

Breaking from the inside No. 1 post, Knicks Go has been opened as the 6-5 favorite to win this year’s Pegasus Gold Cup. The last time he was on the track, the son of Paynter bested the field in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Trained by Brad Cox, he will have jockey Joel Rosario back on board.

I am looking for a one-two finish from the top two contenders in this field in what should be a thrilling head-to-head showdown. This six-year old Maryland-bred horse has the edge in experience with a long list of impressive victories in horse racing’s biggest events. However, I have him running just a few steps behind my top choice in this race.

Show: Sir Winston

In a very deep field, I like the No. 6 horse to round out my top three picks. Trained by Mark Casse and sired by Awesome Again, this six-year old is another veteran that has a knack for finishing in the money. This will be his first race this season after closing out 2021 by winning the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes at Woodbine on Dec. 5.

Sir Winston has been opened at 12-1 odds for Saturday’s race to add some extra value to my trifecta play.