NFL Conference Championships Top Bets on the Total Line

 The NFL's version of the Final Four tee off this Sunday in the AFC and NFC. This postseason has been filled with surprises in the quest to earn a spot in Super Bowl LVI. The No. 1 seed in each conference was set packing early and upstarts such as the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers are just one win away from making that dream a reality.

Unfortunately for Bengals' fans, the Kansas City Chiefs stand in their way for the AFC title. The 49ers face a familiar foe in the NFC Championship with their third meeting of the season against the rival Los Angeles Rams.

Covering the NFL for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, my job all season was to release the "best bets" on the NFL total. Through permission of the site, below are my two total line picks for Sunday's games.

OVER/UNDER Picks for Sunday’s NFL Conference Championships

The online sportsbooks cleaned up during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs with three of four underdogs winning their game straight-up. The total also stayed UNDER the closing line in all three of those stunning upsets.

With the NFL postseason field down to the final four teams, this Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championships will set the stage for an eventual showdown in Super Bowl LVI. Putting my handicapping skills to test for each matchup, here are my “best bet” picks on the NFL total line.

Sunday, Jan. 30

AFC Championship

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 54.5

Cincinnati has to be the biggest surprise in this next round of the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Bengals were able to grind out a last-second 19-16 road win against No. 1 Tennessee in a game that stayed well UNDER the 48.5-point closing line. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last six games.

Kansas City outlasted Buffalo in overtime to advance to its fourth-straight AFC Championship. The total went well OVER 54 points in that 42-36 thriller. The total has now gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last seven games this season.

Sunday’s game is a rematch of a Week 17 clash in which the Bengals prevailed 34-31 closing as 3.5-point home underdogs. The total went OVER 51 points in that game. That betting line has been bumped up to 54.5 points for this meeting with the early betting consensus leaning heavily towards the OVER.

I would tend to agree with the bet on the OVER since the only way Cincinnati is going to win this game is by outscoring the high-powered Chiefs’ offense. Stopping them on defense does not appear to be an option. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Kansas City’s last seven home games against the Bengals, but you can heavily discount that trend with Joe Burrow at quarterback for Cincinnati and Patrick Mahomes under center for the Chiefs.

NFC Championship

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: UNDER 46.5

San Francisco will be going for the three-game season sweep over the NFC West rival LA Rams. The first meeting on Nov. 15 stayed UNDER 50 points in the 49ers’ 31-10 victory at home. In the final game of the regular season, San Francisco erased a 17-0 first half deficit to beat the Rams on the road 27-24. The total went OVER 46.5 points in that game.

LA almost blew another huge lead in Sunday’s 30-27 squeaker against Tampa Bay. All the pressure in the world is on the Rams in this Sunday showdown as 3.5-point home favorites, but it is extremely hard to beat any NFL team three times in the same season, especially when it is a bitter division rival.

My lean in this game is on the 49ers with the crucial half-point edge on the 3.5-point spread. I see this as a three-point game either way. My “best bet” pick for the NFC Championship is the UNDER on the current 46.5-point total line. This is also going to be a tight play either way.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of San Francisco’s last seven games. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings between these two teams.

 

Betting Saturday's Pegasus Gold Cup at Gulfstream Park

 One of the biggest horse races of the year takes place this Saturday in terms of total prize money. The field is set for the $3 million Pegasus Gold Cup on the live card at Gulfstream Park. In what should be a head-to-head battle between two champion Thoroughbreds, I have dug deep into the entire nine-horse field to come up with three contenders that should finish in the money.

My preview and picks for all of Saturday's biggest stakes races was originally posted on the popular sports betting website ScoresandStats.com. It has been reprinted below via permission of this site.

Top Betting Picks for Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park

Saturday’s jam-packed betting board for horse racing features two major graded stakes races on the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail starting with the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Dash Attack appears to be the colt to beat in the field of 12.

Moving to Santa Anita Park, a field of nine is listed as probable for the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Franklin One Star appears to be the top choice with the highest Horse Racing Nation rating in that projected field. However, my “best bet” in the San Vicente would be Forbidden Kingdom if trainer Richard Mandella decides to run the son of American Pharoah in Saturday’s race.

Saturday’s main event for horse bettors is set for Gulfstream Park with the running of the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational. This Grade 1 race covers 1 1/8-miles on the dirt and it is open to Thoroughbreds four and older. A field of nine contenders are listed as entered.

Complementing that Grade 1 event on Saturday’s live card at Gulfstream is the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. This major graded stakes race has a total prize purse of $1 million. With the field set at 12 for this 1 1/8-mile run on the turf, I am stretching the odds with the No. 5 horse. Hit the Road opened at  8-to-1 odds on the morning line as a solid value pick.

Getting back to Saturday’s main event, the following are my top three horses to finish in the money in the 2022 Pegasus Gold Cup Invitational.

Saturday, Jan. 29- Gulfstream Park

Pegasus Gold Cup Invitational

Win: Life Is Good

This four-year old colt has been opened as a 7-5 second-favorite to win on the morning line. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he has been idle since winning the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar last November. Sired by Into Mischief, he will break from the No. 4 post on Saturday with Irad Ortiz Jr. as his jockey.

Over the course of his three-year racing career, Life Is Good has never finished out of the money. In limited events, he has posted five victories and one second-place finish. While a mile is his preferred distance, this colt should stay neck and neck with the favorite right across the finish line.

Place: Knicks Go

Breaking from the inside No. 1 post, Knicks Go has been opened as the 6-5 favorite to win this year’s Pegasus Gold Cup. The last time he was on the track, the son of Paynter bested the field in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Trained by Brad Cox, he will have jockey Joel Rosario back on board.

I am looking for a one-two finish from the top two contenders in this field in what should be a thrilling head-to-head showdown. This six-year old Maryland-bred horse has the edge in experience with a long list of impressive victories in horse racing’s biggest events. However, I have him running just a few steps behind my top choice in this race.

Show: Sir Winston

In a very deep field, I like the No. 6 horse to round out my top three picks. Trained by Mark Casse and sired by Awesome Again, this six-year old is another veteran that has a knack for finishing in the money. This will be his first race this season after closing out 2021 by winning the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes at Woodbine on Dec. 5.

Sir Winston has been opened at 12-1 odds for Saturday’s race to add some extra value to my trifecta play.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Top Bets on the Total Line

 The next round of this season's NFL playoffs feature four games with a trip to each conference championship on the line. Below are my 'best bet' picks on the total line for this weekend's games. They are reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Divisional Round Playoffs

This season’s NFL playoffs kicked things off last weekend with six games in the opening Wild Card Round.

With the Los Angeles Rams 34-11 romp over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night, five of six favorites won their games both straight-up and against the spread with the total staying UNDER in four of the six showdowns.

Moving to the four matchups in this weekend’s Division Round of games, here are my “best bet” picks for betting lines on the NFL total..

Saturday, Jan. 22

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: UNDER 47

The Bengals got past the Las Vegas Raiders in a Wild Card win that stayed UNDER the closing 48.5-point line. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. As the top seed in the AFC, Tennessee is coming off a bye. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Titans’ last seven regular season contests.

The early betting consensus favors the OVER on Saturday, but I am looking for a lower scoring game than expected. Tennessee’s defense and pounding running game with the anticipated return of Derrick Henry should dictate the pace of play.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: OVER 47.5

San Francisco is on a major roll after beating the Rams in Week 18 and the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday on the road to advance to this game. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last six games. Green Bay is well rested as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers’ previous six outings.

Barring a blizzard in Green Bay this Saturday, the winner of this game is going to have to outscore the other. The Packers should get the win on their home field, but San Francisco is more than capable of making them work for it.

Sunday, Jan. 23

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 48.5

The Rams tallied 34 points on Monday night in their highest scoring total over the last six games. Tampa Bay scored 31 points in its romp over Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last four matchups.

This game has the heaviest betting consensus for the OVER on the total at 89%. The books may know something I do not. Yet, I would have to agree with the betting public on this play. Tampa Bay may contribute the most points of the two, but the Rams should put some points on the board as well.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 55

Buffalo scored at will against New England in last Saturday’s 47-17 victory on its home field. Duplicating that performance on the road against Kansas City will be a whole other story. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 21 points in each of their last seven games played at home.

I am going against the current betting consensus of the total line at 70% for the OVER. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games between these two AFC foes as a long-term betting trend. As good as each of these offenses have looked lately, I think the Chiefs’ defense will rise to the occasion late Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead.

Betting Saturday's Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

 One of the first big Kentucky Derby prep races of the season at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans highlights this Saturday's horse betting action.

The featured race in Saturday afternoon's live card is the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes for three-year old Thoroughbreds. Covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Fair Grounds, there are nine entries in the field. The total prize purse for this year's Lecomte is $200,000 with Kentucky Derby qualifying points going to the top four finishers.

Pappacap opened as a 9-5 favorite on the morning line followed by Epicenter as a 2-1 second-favorite. I am looking for each of these colts to hold true to form with the 1-2 finish. 

My slight lean is towards Pappacap to win after closing out his two-year old campaign with a second-place finish behind Cornishe in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, this is an exacta play that should definitely be boxed. Epicenter will have veteran jockey Joel Rosario on board breaking from the favorable No. 5 post.

If you are looking for a third entry to use as a show bet or in a trifecta play, my choice would be Cyberknife. The son of Gun Runner has been opened at 6-1 odds on the morning line.

I will be covering the entire 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail for the popular sports betting site Scores&Stats.com. Below is a link to my complete breakdown of these top three contenders.

2022 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course

VI College Basketball Pick of the Week: Michigan State at Wisconsin

 Two of the top teams in the Big Ten tangle this Friday night with the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans going on the road to face the No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers. Game time on FS1 from Kohl Center in Madison set for 9 p.m. (ET).

Michigan State is 14-3 overall with a straight-up record of 5-1 in conference play. Wisconsin has won 15 of its first 17 games this season SU. The Badgers have a half game lead over the Spartans atop the Big Ten standings at 6-1.

These teams matchup rather well against one another, but Michigan State has the clear 8-2 SU edge over the last 10 meetings. The series is tied at 5-5 against the spread during that same span with the total staying UNDER or closing as a PUSH in seven of the 10 games.

I am bucking those trends with a "best bet" play on the OVER this Friday night with the betting line set at 139 points. The total has gone OVER in six of Michigan State's last eight games behind a healthy scoring average of 74.7 points per game. The Spartans are giving up an average of 65.6 points on defense.

Wisconsin has been able to average 72.6 PPG behind guard Johnny Davis. He is averaging 22.1 points a game as one of the top scorers in the nation. The total has gone OVER in the Badgers' last seven games.

The link below to Vegas Insider takes you to my complete preview and "best bet" predictions for this crucial Big Ten showdown.

Michigan State at Wisconsin

BettingLiveDogs.com NFL Pick of the Day: New England at Buffalo

 In the final week of the NFL regular season, BettingLiveDogs.com cashed in big on San Francisco's stunning come-from-behind upset over the Los Angeles Rams to earn a playoff spot. 

This weekend in the NFL marks the start of the playoffs with six games in the Wild Card Round. The two underdogs on the betting radar for BettingLiveDogs.com in this opening round would include the 49ers as live dogs against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

The top upset special for Saturday's NFL betting action is New England over Buffalo in a straight-up win. At +165 odds on the money line, the Patriots offer some excellent value as 4.5-point road underdogs on the current spread.

Buffalo has the home field advantage in what could be one of the coldest NFL games played in recent years. This type of weather actually favors the Patriots and their running game. Taking pressure off of rookie quarterback Mac Jones having to win this game throwing the ball is another key to New England's success.

The Patriots did stumble down the stretch at 1-3 both SU and against the spread in their last four games. However,  you need to keep in mind that New England has gone 9-1 SU in its last 10 road games against the Bills in Buffalo.  You know that future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick will have his team ready to pull off another big win on Saturday night.

NFL Wild Card Total Line Best Bets

 The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend into Monday night with six postseason showdowns in the opening Wild Card Round. 

As part of my weekly NFL coverage for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, my "best bet" picks for Saturday and Sunday's games have been reprinted below.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

The 2022 NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with the Wild Card Round. Recapping the final regular season betting trends in the league, the best bet against the spread were road underdogs with a winning percentage of 54.1.

Turning to bets on the NFL total line during 18 weeks of regular season games, 53.9% of those contests stayed UNDER the closing number. Here are my NFL Wild Card Total Line picks for Saturday and Sunday’s five matchups.

Saturday, Jan. 15

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 49

The Raiders needed Sunday night’s wild 35-32 overtime win against the rival Los Angeles Chargers to earn a spot in the playoffs. Cincinnati beat the Raiders 32-13 in the regular season in a game that stayed UNDER the 51-point total line.

Each of these teams should be able to put some points on the board in the rematch. The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Raiders’ last 18 conference games. The total has gone OVER in five of Cincinnati’s last six home games.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: UNDER 43

The rubber match in this bitter AFC East rivalry should turn into a grinder that keeps the final score lower than expected. The road team won each of the regular season matchups with the total split 1-1.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Patriots’ last five road games. The total has also stayed UNDER in seven of Buffalo’s last nine games played in the month of January. There is a good chance that the weather in Buffalo for Saturday’s game could be a factor.

Sunday, Jan. 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 49

The Eagles played their way into the postseason with a straight-up 6-2 record over their last eight games. One of the early season losses was against Tampa Bay at home in a 28-22 setback that stayed UNDER 53 points.

The total went OVER the closing line in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games against the NFC. The total has also gone OVER in five of its last seven games against Tampa Bay. The total went OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven January games.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 50.5

The 49ers erased a 17-3 deficit at the half against the LA Rams on Sunday to win in overtime 27-24 with the total set at 46.5 points. Dallas has scored a combined 129 points in its last three games.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams overall. It has also gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cowboys’ last 11 games played at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh needed overtime to get past Baltimore 16-13 to earn a playoff berth. The total has now stayed UNDER in four of the Steelers’ last six games. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10 at home in the regular season with that total closing at 44.5 points.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Kansas City. It has also stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings overall. The Chiefs have given up a combined 44 points over its last five games played at home.