NFL Divisional Playoffs Top Bets on the Total Line

 The next round of this season's NFL playoffs feature four games with a trip to each conference championship on the line. Below are my 'best bet' picks on the total line for this weekend's games. They are reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Divisional Round Playoffs

This season’s NFL playoffs kicked things off last weekend with six games in the opening Wild Card Round.

With the Los Angeles Rams 34-11 romp over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night, five of six favorites won their games both straight-up and against the spread with the total staying UNDER in four of the six showdowns.

Moving to the four matchups in this weekend’s Division Round of games, here are my “best bet” picks for betting lines on the NFL total..

Saturday, Jan. 22

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: UNDER 47

The Bengals got past the Las Vegas Raiders in a Wild Card win that stayed UNDER the closing 48.5-point line. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. As the top seed in the AFC, Tennessee is coming off a bye. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Titans’ last seven regular season contests.

The early betting consensus favors the OVER on Saturday, but I am looking for a lower scoring game than expected. Tennessee’s defense and pounding running game with the anticipated return of Derrick Henry should dictate the pace of play.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: OVER 47.5

San Francisco is on a major roll after beating the Rams in Week 18 and the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday on the road to advance to this game. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last six games. Green Bay is well rested as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers’ previous six outings.

Barring a blizzard in Green Bay this Saturday, the winner of this game is going to have to outscore the other. The Packers should get the win on their home field, but San Francisco is more than capable of making them work for it.

Sunday, Jan. 23

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 48.5

The Rams tallied 34 points on Monday night in their highest scoring total over the last six games. Tampa Bay scored 31 points in its romp over Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last four matchups.

This game has the heaviest betting consensus for the OVER on the total at 89%. The books may know something I do not. Yet, I would have to agree with the betting public on this play. Tampa Bay may contribute the most points of the two, but the Rams should put some points on the board as well.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 55

Buffalo scored at will against New England in last Saturday’s 47-17 victory on its home field. Duplicating that performance on the road against Kansas City will be a whole other story. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 21 points in each of their last seven games played at home.

I am going against the current betting consensus of the total line at 70% for the OVER. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games between these two AFC foes as a long-term betting trend. As good as each of these offenses have looked lately, I think the Chiefs’ defense will rise to the occasion late Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead.

Betting Saturday's Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

 One of the first big Kentucky Derby prep races of the season at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans highlights this Saturday's horse betting action.

The featured race in Saturday afternoon's live card is the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes for three-year old Thoroughbreds. Covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track at Fair Grounds, there are nine entries in the field. The total prize purse for this year's Lecomte is $200,000 with Kentucky Derby qualifying points going to the top four finishers.

Pappacap opened as a 9-5 favorite on the morning line followed by Epicenter as a 2-1 second-favorite. I am looking for each of these colts to hold true to form with the 1-2 finish. 

My slight lean is towards Pappacap to win after closing out his two-year old campaign with a second-place finish behind Cornishe in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, this is an exacta play that should definitely be boxed. Epicenter will have veteran jockey Joel Rosario on board breaking from the favorable No. 5 post.

If you are looking for a third entry to use as a show bet or in a trifecta play, my choice would be Cyberknife. The son of Gun Runner has been opened at 6-1 odds on the morning line.

I will be covering the entire 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail for the popular sports betting site Scores&Stats.com. Below is a link to my complete breakdown of these top three contenders.

2022 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course

VI College Basketball Pick of the Week: Michigan State at Wisconsin

 Two of the top teams in the Big Ten tangle this Friday night with the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans going on the road to face the No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers. Game time on FS1 from Kohl Center in Madison set for 9 p.m. (ET).

Michigan State is 14-3 overall with a straight-up record of 5-1 in conference play. Wisconsin has won 15 of its first 17 games this season SU. The Badgers have a half game lead over the Spartans atop the Big Ten standings at 6-1.

These teams matchup rather well against one another, but Michigan State has the clear 8-2 SU edge over the last 10 meetings. The series is tied at 5-5 against the spread during that same span with the total staying UNDER or closing as a PUSH in seven of the 10 games.

I am bucking those trends with a "best bet" play on the OVER this Friday night with the betting line set at 139 points. The total has gone OVER in six of Michigan State's last eight games behind a healthy scoring average of 74.7 points per game. The Spartans are giving up an average of 65.6 points on defense.

Wisconsin has been able to average 72.6 PPG behind guard Johnny Davis. He is averaging 22.1 points a game as one of the top scorers in the nation. The total has gone OVER in the Badgers' last seven games.

The link below to Vegas Insider takes you to my complete preview and "best bet" predictions for this crucial Big Ten showdown.

Michigan State at Wisconsin

BettingLiveDogs.com NFL Pick of the Day: New England at Buffalo

 In the final week of the NFL regular season, BettingLiveDogs.com cashed in big on San Francisco's stunning come-from-behind upset over the Los Angeles Rams to earn a playoff spot. 

This weekend in the NFL marks the start of the playoffs with six games in the Wild Card Round. The two underdogs on the betting radar for BettingLiveDogs.com in this opening round would include the 49ers as live dogs against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

The top upset special for Saturday's NFL betting action is New England over Buffalo in a straight-up win. At +165 odds on the money line, the Patriots offer some excellent value as 4.5-point road underdogs on the current spread.

Buffalo has the home field advantage in what could be one of the coldest NFL games played in recent years. This type of weather actually favors the Patriots and their running game. Taking pressure off of rookie quarterback Mac Jones having to win this game throwing the ball is another key to New England's success.

The Patriots did stumble down the stretch at 1-3 both SU and against the spread in their last four games. However,  you need to keep in mind that New England has gone 9-1 SU in its last 10 road games against the Bills in Buffalo.  You know that future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick will have his team ready to pull off another big win on Saturday night.

NFL Wild Card Total Line Best Bets

 The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend into Monday night with six postseason showdowns in the opening Wild Card Round. 

As part of my weekly NFL coverage for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, my "best bet" picks for Saturday and Sunday's games have been reprinted below.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

The 2022 NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with the Wild Card Round. Recapping the final regular season betting trends in the league, the best bet against the spread were road underdogs with a winning percentage of 54.1.

Turning to bets on the NFL total line during 18 weeks of regular season games, 53.9% of those contests stayed UNDER the closing number. Here are my NFL Wild Card Total Line picks for Saturday and Sunday’s five matchups.

Saturday, Jan. 15

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 49

The Raiders needed Sunday night’s wild 35-32 overtime win against the rival Los Angeles Chargers to earn a spot in the playoffs. Cincinnati beat the Raiders 32-13 in the regular season in a game that stayed UNDER the 51-point total line.

Each of these teams should be able to put some points on the board in the rematch. The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Raiders’ last 18 conference games. The total has gone OVER in five of Cincinnati’s last six home games.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: UNDER 43

The rubber match in this bitter AFC East rivalry should turn into a grinder that keeps the final score lower than expected. The road team won each of the regular season matchups with the total split 1-1.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Patriots’ last five road games. The total has also stayed UNDER in seven of Buffalo’s last nine games played in the month of January. There is a good chance that the weather in Buffalo for Saturday’s game could be a factor.

Sunday, Jan. 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 49

The Eagles played their way into the postseason with a straight-up 6-2 record over their last eight games. One of the early season losses was against Tampa Bay at home in a 28-22 setback that stayed UNDER 53 points.

The total went OVER the closing line in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games against the NFC. The total has also gone OVER in five of its last seven games against Tampa Bay. The total went OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven January games.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 50.5

The 49ers erased a 17-3 deficit at the half against the LA Rams on Sunday to win in overtime 27-24 with the total set at 46.5 points. Dallas has scored a combined 129 points in its last three games.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams overall. It has also gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cowboys’ last 11 games played at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh needed overtime to get past Baltimore 16-13 to earn a playoff berth. The total has now stayed UNDER in four of the Steelers’ last six games. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10 at home in the regular season with that total closing at 44.5 points.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Kansas City. It has also stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings overall. The Chiefs have given up a combined 44 points over its last five games played at home.

 

 

VI College Basketball Pick of the Week

 Friday night's college basketball betting action in the Big Ten features an interesting matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the No. 25 Illinois Fighting Illini.

The highly touted Wolverines started the season as the No. 6 team in the AP Top 25. They have been a hot mess over their first 13 games at 7-6 straight-up and 5-8 against the spread. Time is running out to turn things around adding a sense of urgency to Friday's game.

Illinois has proven itself to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten this season. At 12-3 SU, the Fighting Illini have broken into the national rankings with a SU 10-1 run in their last 11 outings.

I have Illinois winning this game SU at home, but the best value in the betting odds would be the OVER on the current 145-point total. You can count on Michigan to pull out all the stops to an effort to get a much needed victory. This should result in a higher scoring game than the total line suggests. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Illinois and it should go OVER again on Friday night.

The link below to Vegas Insider, as the best source of betting insight for every sport and sporting event, covers my full game preview and 'best bet' pick.

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini

NFL Week 18 Top Picks on the Total Line

 This week's Top 5 picks for Sunday's NFL games has been reprinted by permission of ScoresandStats.com

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 18

This past Sunday’s NFL schedule in Week 17 of the regular season featured a full 15 games. After the smoke cleared in Sunday night’s key NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers, the total stayed UNDER in nine of those 15 contests.

Here are my five “best bet” picks on the NFL total line for the final week of the regular season.

Sunday, Jan. 9

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: OVER 39.5

The Patriots still have a slim chance to win the AFC East with a win in Week 18 coupled with a Buffalo loss to the New York Jets. Miami just gave up 34 points in a loss to Tennessee. With New England still playing at full speed, the points could add up.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Patriots’ last 12 games overall and it has gone OVER in seven of their last nine AFC games. Against a low total line, both trends should hold up this Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 45

With each of these NFC North foes eliminated from postseason play, there is little incentive to win this last final game. The total stayed well UNDER the 47.5-point total line just four weeks ago in Minnesota’s 17-9 win.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of Chicago’s last 15 games it has stayed UNDER in four of the Bears’ last five division matchups. The total has also stayed UNDER in 14 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: OVER 48

Seattle has been riding out the string for the past few weeks, so playing the role of spoiler is the only incentive in this game. Arizona is in the playoffs and it can still win the NFC West with a win and some help.

The first game this season stayed UNDER 45 points with Arizona winning 23-13. Points might be easier to come by both teams this time around. The total has gone OVER in four of Seattle’s last five games. The Seahawks have scored at least 30 points in three of their last five games.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: UNDER 44

The 49ers need to win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. The Rams need to win late Sunday afternoon to clinch the NFC West division title. With so much on the line for each of these teams, they will both need to bring their A Game.

San Francisco beat Los Angeles 31-10 on Nov. 15 with the total staying UNDER 50 points. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the 49er’s last seven games on the road. It has also stayed UNDER in 12 of the Rams’ last 15 home games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: OVER 48.5

The NFL saved the biggest game of Week 18 for last in what amounts to a playoff showdown in this AFC West clash. The winner clinches a wild card spot and the loser is eliminated from postseason play.

The Chargers drew first blood this season with a 28-14 win against the Raiders that stayed UNDER 55 points. Against a more manageable total line this time around, the trends favor the OVER in this game. The total has gone OVER in 13 of LA’s last 19 road games.