NFL Wild Card Total Line Best Bets

 The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend into Monday night with six postseason showdowns in the opening Wild Card Round. 

As part of my weekly NFL coverage for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com, my "best bet" picks for Saturday and Sunday's games have been reprinted below.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

The 2022 NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with the Wild Card Round. Recapping the final regular season betting trends in the league, the best bet against the spread were road underdogs with a winning percentage of 54.1.

Turning to bets on the NFL total line during 18 weeks of regular season games, 53.9% of those contests stayed UNDER the closing number. Here are my NFL Wild Card Total Line picks for Saturday and Sunday’s five matchups.

Saturday, Jan. 15

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 49

The Raiders needed Sunday night’s wild 35-32 overtime win against the rival Los Angeles Chargers to earn a spot in the playoffs. Cincinnati beat the Raiders 32-13 in the regular season in a game that stayed UNDER the 51-point total line.

Each of these teams should be able to put some points on the board in the rematch. The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Raiders’ last 18 conference games. The total has gone OVER in five of Cincinnati’s last six home games.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: UNDER 43

The rubber match in this bitter AFC East rivalry should turn into a grinder that keeps the final score lower than expected. The road team won each of the regular season matchups with the total split 1-1.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Patriots’ last five road games. The total has also stayed UNDER in seven of Buffalo’s last nine games played in the month of January. There is a good chance that the weather in Buffalo for Saturday’s game could be a factor.

Sunday, Jan. 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 49

The Eagles played their way into the postseason with a straight-up 6-2 record over their last eight games. One of the early season losses was against Tampa Bay at home in a 28-22 setback that stayed UNDER 53 points.

The total went OVER the closing line in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games against the NFC. The total has also gone OVER in five of its last seven games against Tampa Bay. The total went OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven January games.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 50.5

The 49ers erased a 17-3 deficit at the half against the LA Rams on Sunday to win in overtime 27-24 with the total set at 46.5 points. Dallas has scored a combined 129 points in its last three games.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams overall. It has also gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cowboys’ last 11 games played at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh needed overtime to get past Baltimore 16-13 to earn a playoff berth. The total has now stayed UNDER in four of the Steelers’ last six games. Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10 at home in the regular season with that total closing at 44.5 points.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Kansas City. It has also stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings overall. The Chiefs have given up a combined 44 points over its last five games played at home.

 

 

VI College Basketball Pick of the Week

 Friday night's college basketball betting action in the Big Ten features an interesting matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the No. 25 Illinois Fighting Illini.

The highly touted Wolverines started the season as the No. 6 team in the AP Top 25. They have been a hot mess over their first 13 games at 7-6 straight-up and 5-8 against the spread. Time is running out to turn things around adding a sense of urgency to Friday's game.

Illinois has proven itself to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten this season. At 12-3 SU, the Fighting Illini have broken into the national rankings with a SU 10-1 run in their last 11 outings.

I have Illinois winning this game SU at home, but the best value in the betting odds would be the OVER on the current 145-point total. You can count on Michigan to pull out all the stops to an effort to get a much needed victory. This should result in a higher scoring game than the total line suggests. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Illinois and it should go OVER again on Friday night.

The link below to Vegas Insider, as the best source of betting insight for every sport and sporting event, covers my full game preview and 'best bet' pick.

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini

NFL Week 18 Top Picks on the Total Line

 This week's Top 5 picks for Sunday's NFL games has been reprinted by permission of ScoresandStats.com

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 18

This past Sunday’s NFL schedule in Week 17 of the regular season featured a full 15 games. After the smoke cleared in Sunday night’s key NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers, the total stayed UNDER in nine of those 15 contests.

Here are my five “best bet” picks on the NFL total line for the final week of the regular season.

Sunday, Jan. 9

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: OVER 39.5

The Patriots still have a slim chance to win the AFC East with a win in Week 18 coupled with a Buffalo loss to the New York Jets. Miami just gave up 34 points in a loss to Tennessee. With New England still playing at full speed, the points could add up.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Patriots’ last 12 games overall and it has gone OVER in seven of their last nine AFC games. Against a low total line, both trends should hold up this Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: UNDER 45

With each of these NFC North foes eliminated from postseason play, there is little incentive to win this last final game. The total stayed well UNDER the 47.5-point total line just four weeks ago in Minnesota’s 17-9 win.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of Chicago’s last 15 games it has stayed UNDER in four of the Bears’ last five division matchups. The total has also stayed UNDER in 14 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: OVER 48

Seattle has been riding out the string for the past few weeks, so playing the role of spoiler is the only incentive in this game. Arizona is in the playoffs and it can still win the NFC West with a win and some help.

The first game this season stayed UNDER 45 points with Arizona winning 23-13. Points might be easier to come by both teams this time around. The total has gone OVER in four of Seattle’s last five games. The Seahawks have scored at least 30 points in three of their last five games.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: UNDER 44

The 49ers need to win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. The Rams need to win late Sunday afternoon to clinch the NFC West division title. With so much on the line for each of these teams, they will both need to bring their A Game.

San Francisco beat Los Angeles 31-10 on Nov. 15 with the total staying UNDER 50 points. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the 49er’s last seven games on the road. It has also stayed UNDER in 12 of the Rams’ last 15 home games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: OVER 48.5

The NFL saved the biggest game of Week 18 for last in what amounts to a playoff showdown in this AFC West clash. The winner clinches a wild card spot and the loser is eliminated from postseason play.

The Chargers drew first blood this season with a 28-14 win against the Raiders that stayed UNDER 55 points. Against a more manageable total line this time around, the trends favor the OVER in this game. The total has gone OVER in 13 of LA’s last 19 road games.

 

 

BettingLiveDogs.com NFL Pick of the Day: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

 The final week of the NFL regular season is mere formality for quite a few teams as the extra 17th game on the schedule. However, the outcome of a few of this Sunday's divisional showdowns will have major implications for the upcoming playoffs.

One of those key matchups is a NFC West tilt between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers need to win or have the New Orleans Saints lose to Atlanta to secure a wild card spot. The Rams would lay claim to the division title with a win or with an Arizona Cardinals' loss to Seattle.

My lean is towards San Francisco with a straight-up victory. The 49ers are currently listed as four-point road underdogs with +180 money line odds. Given that New Orleans is favored by 3.5 points on the road against Atlanta, it appears that San Francisco will need a SU win to advance into the postseason.

You also have to take into consideration the recent betting trends between these two NFC West rivals. San Francisco has won the last five meetings SU, including a 31-10 pasting of the Rams in the first meeting this season. The 49ers closed as 3.5-point underdogs at home in that game. 

My top-valued pick in this game is San Francisco SU given the highly favorable +180 return on the money line. You could also bet San Francisco plus the four points as a value play. The 49ers are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against LA.

VI College Basketball Pick of the Week

 The college basketball season is in full swing with the New Year and the start of conference play. This is the time of the year when the best teams in the nation continue to jockey for position in both the national polls and the eventual seeding for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

As part of my weekly college basketball coverage for the highly popular sports betting site Vegas Insider, I am dialed into play in the Big 12 and the Big East as two of the most popular betting conferences in Division I ball.

This week, one of my top plays is Friday night's Xavier Musketeers at Butler Bulldogs tilt at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) on FS1.

Xavier goes on the road as a 5.5-point favorite with the total line set at 130 points. The Musketeers are 11-2 straight-up with a profitable 9-4 record against the spread. Two very important betting trends to keep in mind for this matchup starts with Xavier's 9-3 record ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite. You can couple this with Butler going 1-5 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.

Below is a link to my complete game preview at Vegas Insider along with my 'Best Bet' pick.

Xavier Musketeers at Butler Bulldogs

NFL Week 17 Top Picks on the Total Line

 My Top 5 picks on this Sunday's NFL total line are reprinted below through permission of ScoresandStats.com

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 17

The Sunday after Christmas was good to bettors going with the OVER on the total line. If you had bet the OVER in all 12 games, you would have cashed nine winning tickets against just three games staying UNDER. These results were a dramatic shift from the season-long lean towards lower scoring games.

Here is a look at my Top 5 NFL plays on the total line for this Sunday’s games in Week 17.

Sunday, Jan. 2

New York Giants at Chicago Bears: UNDER 38

The Giants have lost their last four games while scoring a combined 46 points. Chicago is coming off a 25-24 upset over Seattle with Nick Foles as the starting quarterback. That sparked some life on the offensive end of the field.

The total has stayed UNDER in seven of New York’s last nine games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games against the Bears. Look for another low-scoring battle this Sunday between two teams riding out the string.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 49

The Chiefs extended their current winning streak to eight games by routing Pittsburgh by 26 points. Cincinnati is coming off a big win against Baltimore while scoring 41 points. This could set the stage for a shootout this Sunday.

The total has gone OVER in six of the Chiefs’ last eight games against an AFC team. The total has gone OVER in six of Cincinnati’s last nine games overall. It has also gone OVER in four of the Bengals’ last five home games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team: OVER 44

The Eagles have scored a combined 94 points in their last three games. This includes 27 points against Washington just two weeks ago. The Football Team just gave up 56 points in a lopsided loss against Dallas.

The total has gone OVER in four of Philadelphia’s last five games overall and in four of its last six division games. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these NFC East foes.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: UNDER 45.5

Denver has lost three of its last four games while scoring a combined 32 points in those three losses. The Chargers lost to the Broncos 28-13 on Nov. 28 in a game that stayed UNDER the 47-point total line.

The total has stayed UNDER in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles. It has also stayed UNDER in seven of Denver’s last eight road games. Look for both of these trends to hold up in this Sunday’s matchup.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: OVER 48.5

The Vikings need a win and some help to stay in the wild card playoff race after losing to the Los Angeles Rams at home this past Sunday. Green Bay needs a win to maintain its top seed in the NFC.

With both of these NFC North foes playing with something on the line, the points should add up on the scoreboard. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 road games. It has also gone OVER in eight of Green Bay’s last 10 games against a division rival.

 

 

NFL Week 16 Top Picks on the Total Line

 My NFL total line picks for Week 16 are reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 16

Week 15 game delays thinned the number of actual NFL betting matchups on this past Sunday’s slate. With just 10 games on the adjusted schedule, the total stayed UNDER in seven of those games with scoring at a premium. When Tampa Bay gets shutout, you know it was a strange day for NFL bettors.

Going with the games set for this Sunday’s NFL betting board, here are five more top plays betting the total line.

Sunday, Dec. 26

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 44

Detroit is coming off its best game of the season after stunning Arizona 30-12. What stood out in this win was an excellent defensive effort. Atlanta only managed to score 13 points in a loss to San Francisco.

Neither of these teams should light up the scoreboard this Sunday in a series where the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings. The total has also stayed UNDER in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: UNDER 44

This is a huge showdown in the AFC North with both teams tied at 8-6. The winner takes sole possession of first place and the loser risks missing the playoffs altogether. The Bengals won the first meeting on the road 41-17.

The second meeting should be a grinder that remains a low scoring affair. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Ravens’ last six games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of their last six games on the road. Cincinnati just held Denver to 10 points while winning with 15.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: OVER 44

New England’s stunning loss to Indianapolis to slip to 9-5 opened the door for Buffalo (8-6) in the AFC East Division title race. Two weeks ago, New England beat Buffalo 14-10. However, I still see this Sunday’s rematch turning into a higher scoring game than expected.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Bills’ last six games. It has gone OVER in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The total has also gone OVER in four of the Patriots’ last five home games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: OVER 47.5

Tampa Bay getting shutout against the rival New Orleans Saints sets the stage for a big turn around this Sunday against another NFC South foe. The only question is how many points will Carolina be able to add to that total?

The trends favor a higher scoring game than the current total line. The total has gone OVER in five of Carolina’s last six games overall and in eight of its last 11 December games. The total has also gone OVER in four of the last six meetings between the two.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh continues to find ways to win games it appeared destined to lose. Kansas City is finding its form at the right time of the year with a SU seven-game winning streak. The total has gone OVER in three of the Chiefs’ last five wins.

While the Chiefs should find a way to keep their winning streak going, I have their defense stepping up at home. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last seven meetings overall and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Kansas City.