Olympic Legend Leads a Small Field of Five for Saturday's Los Alamitos Futurity

Earlier this week, I came up with my top three picks for this Saturday's Los Alamitos Futurity as part of my weekly coverage of horse racing for ScoresandStats.com. At the time, Horse Racing Nation had listed seven entries as probable.

My top choice was Pinehurst followed by Enbarr and Rhetoric. All three of these two-year old colts are trained by Bob Baffert. His horses have dominated this race, with a first place finish the past seven years in a row.

When the actual post positions were announced for the 2021 Los Alamitos Futurity, there were only five total entries in the field with none of these horses on the final list. That is rare but it does happen from time to time. 

Forced to reformulate my top three colts to finish in the money, here are my new picks for this race:

Win: Olympic Legend

Place: Messier

Show: Durante

Olympic Legend is trained by Luis Mendez. The two-year old Kentucky-bred colt will break from the No. 1 post with jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. getting the ride. The son of Street Boss place third in this year's ungraded Capote Stakes at Los Alamitos on Sept. 18.

Messier is one of two colts in the limited field trained by Baffert. Trainer Doug O'Neil has a pair of entries as well, including Durante. 

Both colts are coming off recent victories. Messier won the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar on Nov. 14. He covered the seven furlongs on dirt in 1:22.74 past Forbidden Kingdom and Winning Map. Durante won a one mile Maiden Special Weight race at Del Mar  that same day.

NFL Week 14 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Moving deep into the 2021 NFL regular season schedule, I have come up with this Sunday's five best bets on the total line. 

The following post with my five total line plays has been reprinted below through the permission of ScoresandStats.com where it was originally published.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 14

Re-capping Sunday’s games in Week 13 of the NFL regular season, the total stayed UNDER in seven of the 12 contests. On the year, betting the UNDER has paid off in 56.8% of the NFL games played.

As weather becomes more of a factor in outdoor matchups this time of the year, solid plays on the UNDER become a bit easier to find. Going through all the NFL matchups on this Sunday’s schedule, here are my Top 5 plays on the total line.

Sunday, Dec. 12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: UNDER 44

The Jaguars have lost their last four games straight-up while scoring a grand total of 48 points. Tennessee is coming off its bye week after managing just 26 points combined in losses to Houston and New England.

The total has stayed UNDER in Jacksonville’s last seven games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of its last six games against an AFC team. Look for another low scoring grinder in this AFC South matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 51.5

The Raiders came up short at home against Washington last Sunday 17-15 as slight 1.5-point favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. Kansas City has won five games straight while not allowing more than 17 points in any of those SU victories.

Las Vegas has lost seven of its last eight road games against the Chiefs SU. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Kansas City’s last seven games overall. Look for KC’s defense to get the job done again this Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team: OVER 49

Dallas scored 27 points in last week’s road win against New Orleans. The Cowboys are averaging 29.4 points per game this year. Washington’s SU winning streak has reached four games with Sunday’s victory at Las Vegas.

This will be the first of two meetings in the NFC East rivalry over the next three weeks. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys’ last five division games.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: UNDER 42.5

The Ravens came up short against Pittsburgh their last time out heading into another key AFC North battle. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games. This includes a 16-10 victory at home against Cleveland on Nov. 28 with the total set at 47.5 points.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Browns’ last six games while going 3-3 SU. It has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games against Baltimore. The total has also stayed UNDER in four of Cleveland’s last five home games.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: UNDER 43

The Falcons have lost four of their last six games SU with the total staying UNDER in five of those six games. This slide includes a 19-13 loss to Carolina as 2.5-point home favorites on Oct. 31. The total stayed UNDER 46.5 points.

The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC South foes. It has stayed UNDER in seven of the Panthers’ last eight home games against the Falcons.

 

 

 

 

NFL Week 13 Top Bets on the Total Line

 My following post for this week's top NFL bets on the total line are reprinted below through permission of ScoresandStats.com sports betting site.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 13

The 2021 NFL regular season moves into the crucial month of December. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, the betting trends on the NFL total line continue to favor the UNDER with a 56.2 winning percentage.

Recapping this past Sunday’s games, the OVER actually had the slight edge at 6-5. Looking ahead to this Sunday’s schedule, here are my Top 5 plays on the NFL total line.

Sunday, Dec. 5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: OVER 46

The Colts are coming off a tough 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay in a game they had a chance to win. The total went OVER 53 points and it has now gone OVER in five of their last six games. Houston lost to Indianapolis 31-3 in the first meeting this season.

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Colts’ last eight games played on the road. While recent trends between the two teams point to a lower score than the current betting line, Indianapolis could take the total OVER on its own.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: OVER 47

Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 26 points in each of its last four games with the total going OVER in three of those contests. Detroit is still looking for its first victory of the season after another heart-breaking loss in the closing minutes of a game.

The Vikings won the first meeting this season 19-17 in a grinder at home. That game stayed well UNDER the closing 49.5-point line. However, the total has gone OVER in seven of Minnesota’s last eight games on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: OVER 49.5

Tampa Bay has scored a combined 68 points in its last two games as one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this season. The Falcons managed to squeeze past Jacksonville 21-14 in Week 12 to improve to 5-6 on the year.

The total went OVER 52 points the first meeting this season with Tampa Bay winning 48-25 at home. The total has now gone OVER in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC South rivals. It has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: UNDER 44

Give credit to the Ravens’ defense in their last two wins with a combined 23 points allowed. The total has stayed UNDER in their last three outings. Pittsburgh only managed to score 10 points in Sunday’s dismal loss to Cincinnati.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of Baltimore’s last 15 games dating back to last season. It has stayed UNDER in seven of the Ravens’ last eight road games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 11 games played in December.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 49

Coming off Sunday’s big 28-13 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, the total has stayed UNDER in Denver’s last five games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of the Chiefs’ last six games after beating Dallas 19-9 on Thanksgiving.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Broncos’ last six games on the road. It has stayed UNDER in nine of 11 games this season. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in this AFC West clash.

 

 

 

Betting Saturday's Race Card at Aqueduct

 My following horse racing post was reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com sports betting website.

Saturday’s Race Card at Aqueduct Racetrack Features Four Graded Events

For avid horse bettors, Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, New York is the place to be this Saturday with four major graded events on the daily race card.

The Grade 3 $250,000 Go For Wand Handicap and the Grade 2 $250,000 Demoiselle Stakes for the fillies and mares get things started.

The undercard to the main event also includes the Grade 2 $250,000 Remsen Stakes as key 2022 Kentucky Derby prep for two-year old thoroughbreds closing out their juvenile campaign. The highlight of Saturday’s card is the Grade 1 $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap for thoroughbreds three and older.

The following are my Win-Place-Show picks for both the Remsen and the Cigar Mile.

Saturday, Dec. 4: Aqueduct Racetrack

2021 Remsen Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Dirt

Win: Zandon

Trained by Chad Brown, this Kentucky-bred colt won his racing debut at Belmont with a victory in a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race on Oct. 9. He covered that distance on dirt in 1:10.61. The son of Upstart comes into this race with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 5.23.

Place: Who Hoo Thats Me

Bred in New York, this juvenile colt should feel right at home this Saturday. Trainer Jorge Abreu is looking for a stronger performance in the Remsen coming off a third-place finish in this year’s ungraded Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 30. Sired by Keen Ice, he has finished in the money in three of four events this year.

Show: Overstep

As one of two probable entries by trainer Todd Pletcher, this New York-bred juvenile has the third-highest HRN rating in the projected field (4.87). The son of Into Mischief took second in the Sleepy Hollow after winning a Maiden Special Weight race at Belmont on Sept. 25.

2021 Cigar Mile Handicap: 1 Mile Dirt

Win: Ginobili

This four-year old gelding finished second in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar against some stiff competition. Trained by Richard Baltas, he has now finished in the money in his last three events. This includes an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap at Del Mar in late August.

Sired by Munnings, he will be tough to beat among the projected  nine-horse field if he is running at his best.

Place: Code of Honor

With the actual field for Saturday’s main event still coming together, this five-year old Kentucky-bred colt could be the clear favorite with a lofty HRN rating of 7.28. Trained by Claude “Shug” McGaughey, the son of Noble Mission placed second in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes on Oct. 30 at Keeneland. He started this season with a victory at Monmouth Park in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes.

Code of Honor had his best season racing was as a three-year old when he placed second in the Kentucky Derby.

Show: Independence Hall

This four-year colt is coming off a victory in the Fayette Stakes by covering the 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:50.30. He has placed in the money in four of six events this year. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the son of Constitution is looking to close out 2021 with another strong showing.

Prior to the win at Keeneland, he placed second in this year’s Grade 3 Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs in early October as another plus to his current racing form.

NFL Week 12 Top 5 Total Line Bets

 Reprinted by permission from ScoresandStats.com, here are my Top 5 plays for Sunday's NFL slate of games.

Sunday, Nov. 28

New York Jets at Houston Texans: OVER 44

Jets and the Texans have combined for just four straight-up wins this year, but each team has pulled off some big upsets. New York is coming off a tough 24-17 loss to Miami while Houston stunned Tennessee 22-13 as a 10-point road underdog.

The total has gone OVER in nine of the Jets’ last 10 AFC games and it has gone OVER in four of their last five games overall. In the absence of a stifling defense on Sunday by either team, look for the total to go OVER the current line.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: UNDER 44.5

With the Titans still reeling from the loss to Houston, it will be tough to bounce back against a hot Patriots’ team on the road. New England has won its last five games both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in two of the last three contests.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of New England’s last six games played in the month of November. Given the elevated play of its defense the past few weeks, betting the UNDER in this game offers the best value in the betting lines.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 45.5

This is a crucial matchup in the crowded race for the AFC North Division title. Pittsburgh just scored 37 points but still lost to the Los Angeles Chargers after giving up 41 points. Cincinnati scored 32 points in its lopsided victory against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Each of these teams should be able to put quite a few points on the board in this game. While the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last 10 meetings, current scoring trends for each team point to a higher scoring affair this time around.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: OVER 48

The Chargers have won most of their six games this season by simply outscoring their opponent as opposed to shutting them down on defense. Case in point is the 37 points allowed in the recent win over Pittsburgh. Denver gave up 30 points in a recent loss to Philadelphia.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers’ last six games. It has also gone OVER in six of their last eight games played in November. Look for LA to score the bulk of the points this Sunday with Denver kicking in enough scoring to take the total OVER.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 48.5

The Vikings are another team that wins games by outscoring their opponent. They just put up 34 points in a wild three-point victory against Green Bay. The 49ers are coming off a 30-point effort in a 20-point victory over Jacksonville.

While the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings between these two NFC teams, it has gone OVER in the 49ers’ last five games against the NFC North. The total has also gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last seven road games.

 

 

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Win-Place-Show Free Picks

 Reprinted by permission of ScoresandStats.com, below are my Win-Place-Show best bets for Saturday's $400,000 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Saturday, Nov. 27

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes- Churchill Downs

Win- Tiz The Bomb

Trained by Kenneth McPeek, this two-year old Kentucky-bred colt is coming off a second-place finish in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He started his racing career with two Maiden Special Weight races on dirt before switching to the turf in his next three runs.

The son of Hit It A Bomb returns to the dirt track for this race with a trio of victories already on his early resume. His biggest win was in this year’s Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 10. Tiz The Bomb covered the 1 1/16 miles on turf in 1:43.69. There is some concern about his overall speed on dirt, but he appears to be the class of this projected field with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 5.62.

Place- Howling Time

My second choice for this race has the second-highest HRN rating in the projected field at 5.54. The son of Not This Time won the ungraded Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs his last time out. He covered the 1 1/6 miles on dirt in 1:44.68.

Trained by Dale Romans, he also won a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Churchill on Sept. 25 in the competitive event of his two-year old campaign. A win on Saturday would elevate him to the status of being a legitimate contender on the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail.

Show- Classic Causeway

Rounding out my top three picks for this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes , this Kentucky-bred juvenile is trained by Brian Lynch. Up against some solid talent in Rattle N Roll and Double Thunder, he finished third in this year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 9.

Sired by Giant’s Causeway, he started his racing career with a victory at Saratoga in early September in a seven-furlong Maiden Special Weight event. He covered that distance on dirt in 1:22.67 to show some excellent closing speed.

This is another juvenile that would greatly benefit from a win on Saturday. He has shown the potential to be a legitimate contender after closing as a 9-5 favorite in his previous race.

NFL Week 10 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Through the first nine weeks of the NFL regular season, underdogs have been able to cover the spread 58.5% of the time. The best best on the board has been underdogs playing on the road with a 62.2 winning percentage ATS.

Betting the NFL total line in those same games still favors the UNDER. The total has stayed UNDER 55.1% of the time. 

Underdogs and UNDERs play right into the strong suit of online sportsbooks since the betting public always has a strong lean towards favorites and OVER in the total line. The Oddsmakers continue to adjust accordingly but there is still value to be found taking the points while betting on a lower score than expected.

All season long, I have been posting my Top 5 NFL total line bets at the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com. 

Courtesy of that site, I have reprinted this Sunday's top five total line plays below:

Sunday, Nov. 15

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 52

The Falcons stay on the road after upsetting the New Orleans Saints 27-25 as 6.5-point underdogs. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game of the year with a stunning 30-16 loss to Denver.

The Cowboys will be looking the right the ship this Sunday but look for Atlanta to keep this game close. The total has gone OVER in four of the Falcons’ last five road games. Head-to-head, it has gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: OVER 47.5

The Bills are another team coming off an ugly loss. One of the highest scoring teams in the NFL was held to just six points in the loss to Jacksonville. The total has gone OVER in the Jets’ last five games.

Buffalo could score 48 points on its own in this game. The total has gone OVER in nine of the Bills’ last 13 road games. It has gone OVER in six of New York’s last nine November games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: OVER 51.5

Both of these teams are coming off a Week 9 bye. Tampa Bay gave up 36 points to New Orleans in a loss its last time out. Washington brings a straight-up four game losing streak into this NFC clash.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven conference games. It has also gone OVER in four of Washington’s last five games against a team from the NFC. Given the week’s rest, look for Tampa Bay’s offense to have a big day.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: UNDER 44

Cleveland exploded for 41 points in Sunday’s road win against rival Cincinnati. However, the Browns scored a combined 41 points in their previous three matchups. New England only allowed six points in Sunday’s road win at Carolina.

This game has the making of a grinder between two AFC teams coming off strong defensive efforts. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Cleveland’s last seven games against a team from the AFC East.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: UNDER 51.5

It was not pretty, but Kansas City was able to get by Green Bay 13-7 after scoring a combined 23 points in its previous two games. The Raiders stumbled against the New York Giants last Sunday as three-point road favorites in a 23-16 loss.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the previous 10 meetings in this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Chiefs’ last five games overall. The betting line for this Sunday’s matchup could be set a bit too high given the current form of each team’s offense.