The annual college player draft in the NFL has turned into a big betting event in recent years due to a large selection of prop bet options tied to the proceedings. Most of the betting props center on the first round of 32 picks that cover the best college players that are eligible to be drafted by the league.
This year's opening round on picks from Cleveland, Ohio will kick things off on Thursday, April 29. The next two rounds of the draft will be held on Friday night and the final four rounds of picks will take place on Saturday, May 1.
Given that quarterback is the highest profile position in the NFL, it stands to reason that this position will also attract quite a bit of betting volume for the draft. Two weeks out, there is little doubt as to which quarterbacks will come off the board with the first two picks.
The odds that former Clemson standout Trevor Lawrence goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the first overall pick are set at -10000. This means you would have to wager $10,000 to win $100 on that bet. There is no such thing as a lock in sports betting but this is about as close as it gets.
It is also highly likely that quarterback Zach Wilson, out of BYU will go to the New York Jets at No. 2. Those betting odds are set at -3000.
Things start to get interesting at No. 3 with the San Francisco 49ers on the clock. Earlier this week, Mac Jones was a -140 favorite to come off the board next. Stock in the former Alabama quarterback slipped a bit but it was not his fault.
Former Ohio State gunslinger Justin Fields went from being a +170 second-favorite to a -190 favorite to be the 49ers' newest quarterback. This major shift in the betting odds is tied to his impressive showing during a pro day workout with San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan in attendance. He made note of how good Fields looked on social media and the Oddsmakers took notice.
Given that kind of swing in betting value, you really need to pay close attention to all the major mock draft boards right now. Nobody knows for sure what each team will do with a coveted first round pick. I would guess that most of the 32 teams do not even know who they are going to draft when they are on the clock come April 29.
However, if you are willing to put in some extra time, you can capitalize on any number of prop bet options where the odds can swing in your favor.
Your best bet is to keep your ear to the ground for news connected to the draft. With two weeks left in each team's vetting process anything and everything is subject to change.
Moving down the list of available quarterbacks on this year's NFL draft board, you can get +300 odds that more than 5 1/2 will be selected in the opening round. The first four mentioned above are obvious first rounders.
You can safely add former North Dakota quarterback Trey Lance to this list at No. 5. The big question is will any team make a reach at this position with a first round pick? The betting odds say NO with the odds set at -500 for UNDER 5 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
The books must know something that the bettors do not with such high odds posted. I still think a small play on the OVER is well worth the risk verse the inflated return.
One quarterback that could swing this bet OVER 5 1/2 is Kellen Mond, who spent his college career at Texas Tech. Former Florida quarterback Kyle Trask is another possibility.
A likely landing spot for a sixth quarterback could be New Orleans at No. 28. With Drew Brees retired, head coach Sean Peyton might be tempted to make that reach I am betting on.