Friday, May 22, 2020

Are The Cowboys Overvalued by Oddsmakers?

America's Team has been getting the benefit of the doubt for a number of years. The Dallas Cowboys have not won a Super Bowl title since 1995. Since that point, they have failed to advance past the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 10 trips to the postseason over the span of the past 24 NFL seasons. Yet, the Cowboys remain one of the most popular sports franchise in the nation.

Team owner Jerry Jones finally parted ways with Jason Garrett as the head coach of Dallas after a 10-year run. Former Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy takes over the reins heading into the 2020 season and once again expectations are running high in Big D. They will open the season on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point favorites on the opening line out of Las Vegas.

Dallas is a slight +110 favorite to win the NFC East over the Philadelphia Eagles (+115). The Cowboys' odds to win the 2020 NFC Championship at America's Bookie online sportsbook are set at +1000 which is fourth on the list after San Francisco, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Moving to the NFL futures odds to win Super Bowl LV, they are sixth on that list at +2000.

The Cowboys' projected win total is 9.5 with the odds favoring the OVER at -155. Since 2010, they have won at least 10 games a grand total of three times. The odds they make the playoffs are set at -200 coming off an 8-8 record last season. McCarthy had a fairly successful run in Green Bay but the bar is raise a bit too high heading into his first season at the helm.

The overall popularity of the team has more to do with those lofty odds than its actual chance to make good on any of those bets. Most sports bettors are creatures of habit by nature. They tend to bet their money on what they want to happen as opposed to relying on stats, facts and past betting trends. All the sportsbooks know this and they set the betting odds accordingly.

At this point in the offseason given the additions and losses to the Cowboys' overall roster, they set themselves as a great team to fade when Week 1 rolls around against the Rams. The UNDER on 9.5 wins at +125 is a value play and I love the plus money at +170 odds to miss the playoffs. Just because you want something to happen does not mean it will.

Can The Dallas Cowboys Live Up To The Sportsbook Betting Hype?

Saturday, May 16, 2020

NASCAR's Cup Series Return to Betting Action at Darlington

NASCAR's last Cup Series race was on March 8 at Ism Raceway in Phoenix with Joey Logano winning his second point race of the season. Kevin Harvick took second and Kyle Busch rounded out the Top 3. Flash forward more than two months later and the series is gearing up for a restart this Sunday at Darlington Raceway.

Driving the signature No. 18 Toyota, Busch has been opened as a +550 favorite to win the Real Heroes 400. The reining Cup Series champ is looking for his first victory this season with four point races in the book. Denny Hamlin is a +650 second-favorite followed by Harvick at +700.

One of the best ways to bet on any NASCAR Cup Series race at an online sportsbook such as America's Bookie is head-to-head matchups. The driver you bet on does not have to win or even finish in the Top 10. They just have finish in a higher position than the driver they are pitted against in the final running order.

Here are my three 'best bet' picks for this Sunday's top matchups:


Take Kevin Harvick (+145) over Kyle Busch (-115)

Take Chase Elliott (-110) over Martin Truex Jr. (-120)

Take Jimmie Johnson (-115) over Kurt Busch (-115)


Saturday, May 2, 2020

Going Chalk in Both Arkansas Derby Divisions

When it comes to horse racing, the first Saturday in May is all about Churchill Downs and the running of the Kentucky Derby. With the world turned upside down these days, the biggest betting race of the year had to be moved to the first Saturday in September because of the coronavirus. Fortunately, Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas is helping to fill that huge void with the running of two divisions of this year's $1 million Arkansas Derby.

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is usually run in early April as the last big prep race ahead of the Kentucky Derby. This year it was pushed back to May 2 as part of a full card at Oaklawn. Interest in this race from the best trainers in the game pushed the entry list to 22 three-year old thoroughbreds. To accommodate that many entries, the race was divided into two divisions with 11 contenders in each run.

Since that point, two horses from each division have been scratched to reduce the field to nine for each race. In Division 1, famed trainer Bob Baffert's Charlatan is a 1/1 favorite on the morning line. Todd Pletcher's Gouverneur Morris is second on the list at 9/2 odds. The rest of the field has a few interesting choices. However, this presents the perfect opportunity to go chalk with an exacta play.

Baffert will be going for the sweep in the next division with Nadal as a the 5/2 favorite. This would be my pick as well after this Kentucky-bred colt won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in March. Wells Bayou will start from the No. 9 post as a 7/2 second-favorite but my second choice is Storm The Court at 6/1 odds.

Arkansas Derby Division 1

Win: Charlatan
Place: Gouverneur Morris
Show: Shooter's Shoot


Arkansas Derby Division 2

Win: Nadal
Place: Storm The Court
Show: Wells Bayou



LINK: Triple Play at Oaklawn Park, Highlighted By 2020 Arkansas Derby

Sunday, April 26, 2020

2020 NBA Western Conference Finals Early Betting Lines

Live sports remain in limbo due to the coronavirus outbreak. As the days and weeks continue to slip by, the future of the 2019/2020 NBA season is definitely in doubt. To cut its losses, the Association may have to pull the plug and regroup for next season. BetOnline, as one of the top-rated online sportsbooks for US bettors, is not ready or willing to give up just yet.

As part of its NBA futures betting options, it has already set betting spreads for each of the possible seven games in this season's best-of-seven Western Conference Finals. The showdown that every fan or bettor expects is set between the Los Angeles Clippers as the road team against the Los Angeles Lakers. Each team plays their games at Staples Arena so travel would not be an issue.

As part of my weekly coverage of the NBA for the highly popular sports betting website, SCORES & STATS, I have taken a closer look at the betting spreads set for all seven games. Please click through to the link below to see how this showdown plays out.


LINK: NBA Betting Lines For a LA Showdown For the West

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Betting 2020 NFL Draft Props by Individual Team

An expanded list of prop bet options for Thursday's opening round of the NFL draft offers quite a few high-value bets. Just about every aspect of the first 32 picks is covered with unique betting options. Since the draft is the only game in town right now as far as any live betting events, this has become a golden opportunity to boost an online sportsbook account while waiting for the regular action to resume.

As part of my weekly NFL coverage for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats, I focused my attention on each team's first round pick in terms of offense or defense.

It is pretty much a given that the Cincinnati Bengals are going offense with the first overall pick of the draft by taking former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. There is also a strong lean towards defense for the second pick with the Washington Redskins expected to go with defensive end Chase Young from Ohio State.

After that, things are a bit more up in the air. As one of the top-rated online sportsbooks, BetOnline has set prop bet odds for 30 of the NFL's 32 teams as far as taking an offensive or defensive player with their first round pick. I decided to cover the next three teams on the list as well as two teams that offer excellent value going against the favored side. Please click through the link below to Scores & Stats for all of my prop bet picks.


LINK: Betting On Each NFL Team’s First Round Draft Pick

Saturday, April 4, 2020

Betting on The NFL Draft Skill Positions

This year's NFL Draft from April 23 to April 25 is turning out to be the biggest betting event of the spring. Live sports probably will not return to the field, court or ice until early summer, so for avid sports bettors the draft is the only game in town right now.

The general consensus among draft experts has former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow going to the Cincinnati Bengals as the No. 1 overall pick. The big question is which quarterback comes off the board next and how much are you willing to bet your right?

This year's draft is deep with wide receivers with as many as a half a dozen going in the opening round. Betting on which one breaks the ice as the first off the board is another popular prop bet.

Most teams shy away from taking a running back in the first round unless you are talking about players such as Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley. This year's class is not as deep, so a back might not come off the board in the first 32 picks. None the less, you can still bet on who gets the nod as the first running back taken.

Skill positions always attract quite a bit of attention from bettors when the draft rolls around. As part of my draft coverage for the popular sports betting site Scores & Stats, this week's focus was on the 'best of the best' for quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs. Please check the link below for my free prop bet picks covering all three positions based on betting odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

LINK: 2020 NFL Draft Props for Top Skill Position Picks

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Tiz the Law Opens as Florida Derby Favorite

One of the biggest prep races on the Kentucky Derby Trail is Saturday's Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. This year's race boasts a deep field of 13 three-year old thoroughbreds competing for $750,000 in total prize money and Kentucky Derby qualifying points. This is usually one of the last big prep races before the start of the Triple Crown racing series but the coronavirus outbreak has delayed the Kentucky Derby until Saturday, Sept. 5. It remains to be seen how the four month delay will impact the best three-year old colts in the nation.

Gulfstream is one of the few horse racing tracks in the nation that has pressed on with its regular schedule. The stands will be empty for today's main event but the action will still be hot with a very talented field. Tiz the Law was named the 6/5 favorite on the morning line with Ete Indien also in the mix as one of the top contenders. These two ran head-to-head against one another in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 1 at Gulfstream with Tiz the Law winning that showdown in a one-two finish.

A few other entries to watch in this year's Florida Derby are Independence Hall, Gouverneur Morris and As Seen On TV. After digging a bit deeper into this field, it is hard not to go chalk with Tiz the Law as the favorite. Especially with the earlier win at this track. I like Gouverneur Morris in the place position with Ete Indien as my show horse.

FLORIDA DERBY Prediction

1- Tiz the Law
2- Gouverneur Morris
3- Ete Indien