NFL Week 16 Top Picks on the Total Line

 My NFL total line picks for Week 16 are reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 16

Week 15 game delays thinned the number of actual NFL betting matchups on this past Sunday’s slate. With just 10 games on the adjusted schedule, the total stayed UNDER in seven of those games with scoring at a premium. When Tampa Bay gets shutout, you know it was a strange day for NFL bettors.

Going with the games set for this Sunday’s NFL betting board, here are five more top plays betting the total line.

Sunday, Dec. 26

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 44

Detroit is coming off its best game of the season after stunning Arizona 30-12. What stood out in this win was an excellent defensive effort. Atlanta only managed to score 13 points in a loss to San Francisco.

Neither of these teams should light up the scoreboard this Sunday in a series where the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings. The total has also stayed UNDER in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: UNDER 44

This is a huge showdown in the AFC North with both teams tied at 8-6. The winner takes sole possession of first place and the loser risks missing the playoffs altogether. The Bengals won the first meeting on the road 41-17.

The second meeting should be a grinder that remains a low scoring affair. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Ravens’ last six games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of their last six games on the road. Cincinnati just held Denver to 10 points while winning with 15.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: OVER 44

New England’s stunning loss to Indianapolis to slip to 9-5 opened the door for Buffalo (8-6) in the AFC East Division title race. Two weeks ago, New England beat Buffalo 14-10. However, I still see this Sunday’s rematch turning into a higher scoring game than expected.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Bills’ last six games. It has gone OVER in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The total has also gone OVER in four of the Patriots’ last five home games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: OVER 47.5

Tampa Bay getting shutout against the rival New Orleans Saints sets the stage for a big turn around this Sunday against another NFC South foe. The only question is how many points will Carolina be able to add to that total?

The trends favor a higher scoring game than the current total line. The total has gone OVER in five of Carolina’s last six games overall and in eight of its last 11 December games. The total has also gone OVER in four of the last six meetings between the two.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh continues to find ways to win games it appeared destined to lose. Kansas City is finding its form at the right time of the year with a SU seven-game winning streak. The total has gone OVER in three of the Chiefs’ last five wins.

While the Chiefs should find a way to keep their winning streak going, I have their defense stepping up at home. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last seven meetings overall and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Kansas City.

 

 

 

BettingLiveDogs.com NFL Pick of the Day: San Francisco at Tennessee

 Its Week 16 of the NFL regular season and all the action gets started on Thursday night with the NFC's San Francisco 49ers on the road as three-point favorites against the AFC's Tennessee Titans. Each of these teams is in the thick of their conference's playoff race and a win on Thursday night would go a long way towards helping the cause.

San Francisco has moved to 8-6 straight-up with five victories in its last six games. Capturing the NFC West Division title would be a stretch behind both the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams with each team at 10-4. Yet, the 49ers are in solid position to earn a wild card spot in the conference and the current No. 5 seed.

The 9-6 Titans' hold a very tenuous one-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South. Thursday night's game is not a must-win situation. However, after losing three of its last four games, Tennessee's margin for error has become rather tight. 

There is no doubt that the 49ers come in hot given their current playing form. However, Tennessee comes in desperate for a win. This is still a solid team on both sides of the ball that gains a significant edge playing this game at home in Nashville.

When it comes to releasing my BettingLiveDogs.com pick of the day, I normally look for the best value in a home dog straight-up on the money line. 

Getting Tennessee at -145 on the current money line is just too tempting to pass up. The Titans are 3-1 SU against the NFC this season, including a win on the road against the Rams. Look for them to improve on that record following Thursday night's SU victory.

NFL Pick of the Day: Tennessee +145

Saturday's College Basketball "Best Bet"

 This Saturday's NCAAB betting board is filled with a number of great matchups. As part of my weekly coverage for Vegas Insider, my "best bet" pick of the day is a Big East battle between the Providence Friars and the No. 20 Connecticut Huskies.

Tip-off from the XL Center in Harford is set for 5 p.m. on FOX. This will be the conference opener for both teams with Providence boasting a straight-up 10-1 start while the Huskies bring a SU record of 9-2 into this game.

The Friars are averaging 70.9 points per game led by Nate Watson's team-high 15.3-point scoring average. They are holding opposing teams to 62.3 points a game. The Huskies dial things up a bit with 81.8 PPG. RJ Cole is the team's leader in scoring with 16.0 points a game. Connecticut has a points-allowed average of 62.1 through its first 11 games.

The Huskies are favored by 6.5 points at home with the total set at 137.

Notable Betting Trends:

The Friars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games with the total staying UNDER in six of their last nine outings.

The Huskies have failed to cover in four of their last six games. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games.

Head-to-head, the series is dead-even over the last 10 meetings at 5-5 both SU and ATS. The home team has won eight of the last nine matchups both SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings.

"Best Bet" Pick:

My value play in this game is the OVER on the total line. Both teams should be able to get close to their scoring average on year to combine for more than 137 points.

Below is my complete game preview and betting pick as posted on Vegas Insider:

Providence Friars at Connecticut Huskies

BettingLiveDogs.com NFL Pick of the Day: Dallas at Washington

 The Dallas Cowboys burst out of the gate this season to a straight-up 6-1 start while the Washington Football Team only won two of their first eight games. Heading into Sunday's big NFC East showdown at FedEx Field, the 8-5 Cowboys are just two games in front of surging Washington at 6-6.

While Dallas is still a heavy -900 favorite to win the division title, an upset on Sunday would have a huge impact on those futures odds. You can get +750 odds on the Football Team in that same futures bet.

As my BettingLiveDogs.com upset pick of the day, I am taking Washington straight-up on the money line at +170. The series is tied 3-3 both SU and against the spread over the last six meetings. This includes a Washington sweep last season.

The Cowboys are 2-3 (SU and ATS) in their last five games while Washington is riding a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Anytime you can bet a hot team at home as an underdog, you have to jump all over that opportunity.

Olympic Legend Leads a Small Field of Five for Saturday's Los Alamitos Futurity

Earlier this week, I came up with my top three picks for this Saturday's Los Alamitos Futurity as part of my weekly coverage of horse racing for ScoresandStats.com. At the time, Horse Racing Nation had listed seven entries as probable.

My top choice was Pinehurst followed by Enbarr and Rhetoric. All three of these two-year old colts are trained by Bob Baffert. His horses have dominated this race, with a first place finish the past seven years in a row.

When the actual post positions were announced for the 2021 Los Alamitos Futurity, there were only five total entries in the field with none of these horses on the final list. That is rare but it does happen from time to time. 

Forced to reformulate my top three colts to finish in the money, here are my new picks for this race:

Win: Olympic Legend

Place: Messier

Show: Durante

Olympic Legend is trained by Luis Mendez. The two-year old Kentucky-bred colt will break from the No. 1 post with jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. getting the ride. The son of Street Boss place third in this year's ungraded Capote Stakes at Los Alamitos on Sept. 18.

Messier is one of two colts in the limited field trained by Baffert. Trainer Doug O'Neil has a pair of entries as well, including Durante. 

Both colts are coming off recent victories. Messier won the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar on Nov. 14. He covered the seven furlongs on dirt in 1:22.74 past Forbidden Kingdom and Winning Map. Durante won a one mile Maiden Special Weight race at Del Mar  that same day.

NFL Week 14 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Moving deep into the 2021 NFL regular season schedule, I have come up with this Sunday's five best bets on the total line. 

The following post with my five total line plays has been reprinted below through the permission of ScoresandStats.com where it was originally published.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 14

Re-capping Sunday’s games in Week 13 of the NFL regular season, the total stayed UNDER in seven of the 12 contests. On the year, betting the UNDER has paid off in 56.8% of the NFL games played.

As weather becomes more of a factor in outdoor matchups this time of the year, solid plays on the UNDER become a bit easier to find. Going through all the NFL matchups on this Sunday’s schedule, here are my Top 5 plays on the total line.

Sunday, Dec. 12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: UNDER 44

The Jaguars have lost their last four games straight-up while scoring a grand total of 48 points. Tennessee is coming off its bye week after managing just 26 points combined in losses to Houston and New England.

The total has stayed UNDER in Jacksonville’s last seven games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of its last six games against an AFC team. Look for another low scoring grinder in this AFC South matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 51.5

The Raiders came up short at home against Washington last Sunday 17-15 as slight 1.5-point favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. Kansas City has won five games straight while not allowing more than 17 points in any of those SU victories.

Las Vegas has lost seven of its last eight road games against the Chiefs SU. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Kansas City’s last seven games overall. Look for KC’s defense to get the job done again this Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team: OVER 49

Dallas scored 27 points in last week’s road win against New Orleans. The Cowboys are averaging 29.4 points per game this year. Washington’s SU winning streak has reached four games with Sunday’s victory at Las Vegas.

This will be the first of two meetings in the NFC East rivalry over the next three weeks. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys’ last five division games.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: UNDER 42.5

The Ravens came up short against Pittsburgh their last time out heading into another key AFC North battle. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games. This includes a 16-10 victory at home against Cleveland on Nov. 28 with the total set at 47.5 points.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Browns’ last six games while going 3-3 SU. It has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games against Baltimore. The total has also stayed UNDER in four of Cleveland’s last five home games.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: UNDER 43

The Falcons have lost four of their last six games SU with the total staying UNDER in five of those six games. This slide includes a 19-13 loss to Carolina as 2.5-point home favorites on Oct. 31. The total stayed UNDER 46.5 points.

The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC South foes. It has stayed UNDER in seven of the Panthers’ last eight home games against the Falcons.

 

 

 

 

NFL Week 13 Top Bets on the Total Line

 My following post for this week's top NFL bets on the total line are reprinted below through permission of ScoresandStats.com sports betting site.

Five OVER/UNDER Picks for NFL Week 13

The 2021 NFL regular season moves into the crucial month of December. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, the betting trends on the NFL total line continue to favor the UNDER with a 56.2 winning percentage.

Recapping this past Sunday’s games, the OVER actually had the slight edge at 6-5. Looking ahead to this Sunday’s schedule, here are my Top 5 plays on the NFL total line.

Sunday, Dec. 5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: OVER 46

The Colts are coming off a tough 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay in a game they had a chance to win. The total went OVER 53 points and it has now gone OVER in five of their last six games. Houston lost to Indianapolis 31-3 in the first meeting this season.

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Colts’ last eight games played on the road. While recent trends between the two teams point to a lower score than the current betting line, Indianapolis could take the total OVER on its own.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: OVER 47

Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 26 points in each of its last four games with the total going OVER in three of those contests. Detroit is still looking for its first victory of the season after another heart-breaking loss in the closing minutes of a game.

The Vikings won the first meeting this season 19-17 in a grinder at home. That game stayed well UNDER the closing 49.5-point line. However, the total has gone OVER in seven of Minnesota’s last eight games on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: OVER 49.5

Tampa Bay has scored a combined 68 points in its last two games as one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this season. The Falcons managed to squeeze past Jacksonville 21-14 in Week 12 to improve to 5-6 on the year.

The total went OVER 52 points the first meeting this season with Tampa Bay winning 48-25 at home. The total has now gone OVER in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC South rivals. It has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: UNDER 44

Give credit to the Ravens’ defense in their last two wins with a combined 23 points allowed. The total has stayed UNDER in their last three outings. Pittsburgh only managed to score 10 points in Sunday’s dismal loss to Cincinnati.

The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of Baltimore’s last 15 games dating back to last season. It has stayed UNDER in seven of the Ravens’ last eight road games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 11 games played in December.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 49

Coming off Sunday’s big 28-13 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, the total has stayed UNDER in Denver’s last five games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of the Chiefs’ last six games after beating Dallas 19-9 on Thanksgiving.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Broncos’ last six games on the road. It has stayed UNDER in nine of 11 games this season. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings in this AFC West clash.

 

 

 

Betting Saturday's Race Card at Aqueduct

 My following horse racing post was reprinted through permission of ScoresandStats.com sports betting website.

Saturday’s Race Card at Aqueduct Racetrack Features Four Graded Events

For avid horse bettors, Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, New York is the place to be this Saturday with four major graded events on the daily race card.

The Grade 3 $250,000 Go For Wand Handicap and the Grade 2 $250,000 Demoiselle Stakes for the fillies and mares get things started.

The undercard to the main event also includes the Grade 2 $250,000 Remsen Stakes as key 2022 Kentucky Derby prep for two-year old thoroughbreds closing out their juvenile campaign. The highlight of Saturday’s card is the Grade 1 $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap for thoroughbreds three and older.

The following are my Win-Place-Show picks for both the Remsen and the Cigar Mile.

Saturday, Dec. 4: Aqueduct Racetrack

2021 Remsen Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Dirt

Win: Zandon

Trained by Chad Brown, this Kentucky-bred colt won his racing debut at Belmont with a victory in a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race on Oct. 9. He covered that distance on dirt in 1:10.61. The son of Upstart comes into this race with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 5.23.

Place: Who Hoo Thats Me

Bred in New York, this juvenile colt should feel right at home this Saturday. Trainer Jorge Abreu is looking for a stronger performance in the Remsen coming off a third-place finish in this year’s ungraded Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 30. Sired by Keen Ice, he has finished in the money in three of four events this year.

Show: Overstep

As one of two probable entries by trainer Todd Pletcher, this New York-bred juvenile has the third-highest HRN rating in the projected field (4.87). The son of Into Mischief took second in the Sleepy Hollow after winning a Maiden Special Weight race at Belmont on Sept. 25.

2021 Cigar Mile Handicap: 1 Mile Dirt

Win: Ginobili

This four-year old gelding finished second in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar against some stiff competition. Trained by Richard Baltas, he has now finished in the money in his last three events. This includes an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap at Del Mar in late August.

Sired by Munnings, he will be tough to beat among the projected  nine-horse field if he is running at his best.

Place: Code of Honor

With the actual field for Saturday’s main event still coming together, this five-year old Kentucky-bred colt could be the clear favorite with a lofty HRN rating of 7.28. Trained by Claude “Shug” McGaughey, the son of Noble Mission placed second in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes on Oct. 30 at Keeneland. He started this season with a victory at Monmouth Park in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes.

Code of Honor had his best season racing was as a three-year old when he placed second in the Kentucky Derby.

Show: Independence Hall

This four-year colt is coming off a victory in the Fayette Stakes by covering the 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:50.30. He has placed in the money in four of six events this year. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the son of Constitution is looking to close out 2021 with another strong showing.

Prior to the win at Keeneland, he placed second in this year’s Grade 3 Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs in early October as another plus to his current racing form.