NFL Week 12 Top 5 Total Line Bets

 Reprinted by permission from ScoresandStats.com, here are my Top 5 plays for Sunday's NFL slate of games.

Sunday, Nov. 28

New York Jets at Houston Texans: OVER 44

Jets and the Texans have combined for just four straight-up wins this year, but each team has pulled off some big upsets. New York is coming off a tough 24-17 loss to Miami while Houston stunned Tennessee 22-13 as a 10-point road underdog.

The total has gone OVER in nine of the Jets’ last 10 AFC games and it has gone OVER in four of their last five games overall. In the absence of a stifling defense on Sunday by either team, look for the total to go OVER the current line.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: UNDER 44.5

With the Titans still reeling from the loss to Houston, it will be tough to bounce back against a hot Patriots’ team on the road. New England has won its last five games both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in two of the last three contests.

The total has stayed UNDER in five of New England’s last six games played in the month of November. Given the elevated play of its defense the past few weeks, betting the UNDER in this game offers the best value in the betting lines.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 45.5

This is a crucial matchup in the crowded race for the AFC North Division title. Pittsburgh just scored 37 points but still lost to the Los Angeles Chargers after giving up 41 points. Cincinnati scored 32 points in its lopsided victory against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Each of these teams should be able to put quite a few points on the board in this game. While the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last 10 meetings, current scoring trends for each team point to a higher scoring affair this time around.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: OVER 48

The Chargers have won most of their six games this season by simply outscoring their opponent as opposed to shutting them down on defense. Case in point is the 37 points allowed in the recent win over Pittsburgh. Denver gave up 30 points in a recent loss to Philadelphia.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers’ last six games. It has also gone OVER in six of their last eight games played in November. Look for LA to score the bulk of the points this Sunday with Denver kicking in enough scoring to take the total OVER.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: OVER 48.5

The Vikings are another team that wins games by outscoring their opponent. They just put up 34 points in a wild three-point victory against Green Bay. The 49ers are coming off a 30-point effort in a 20-point victory over Jacksonville.

While the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings between these two NFC teams, it has gone OVER in the 49ers’ last five games against the NFC North. The total has also gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last seven road games.

 

 

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Win-Place-Show Free Picks

 Reprinted by permission of ScoresandStats.com, below are my Win-Place-Show best bets for Saturday's $400,000 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Saturday, Nov. 27

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes- Churchill Downs

Win- Tiz The Bomb

Trained by Kenneth McPeek, this two-year old Kentucky-bred colt is coming off a second-place finish in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He started his racing career with two Maiden Special Weight races on dirt before switching to the turf in his next three runs.

The son of Hit It A Bomb returns to the dirt track for this race with a trio of victories already on his early resume. His biggest win was in this year’s Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 10. Tiz The Bomb covered the 1 1/16 miles on turf in 1:43.69. There is some concern about his overall speed on dirt, but he appears to be the class of this projected field with a Horse Racing Nation rating of 5.62.

Place- Howling Time

My second choice for this race has the second-highest HRN rating in the projected field at 5.54. The son of Not This Time won the ungraded Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs his last time out. He covered the 1 1/6 miles on dirt in 1:44.68.

Trained by Dale Romans, he also won a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Churchill on Sept. 25 in the competitive event of his two-year old campaign. A win on Saturday would elevate him to the status of being a legitimate contender on the 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail.

Show- Classic Causeway

Rounding out my top three picks for this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes , this Kentucky-bred juvenile is trained by Brian Lynch. Up against some solid talent in Rattle N Roll and Double Thunder, he finished third in this year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 9.

Sired by Giant’s Causeway, he started his racing career with a victory at Saratoga in early September in a seven-furlong Maiden Special Weight event. He covered that distance on dirt in 1:22.67 to show some excellent closing speed.

This is another juvenile that would greatly benefit from a win on Saturday. He has shown the potential to be a legitimate contender after closing as a 9-5 favorite in his previous race.

NFL Week 10 Top Bets on the Total Line

 Through the first nine weeks of the NFL regular season, underdogs have been able to cover the spread 58.5% of the time. The best best on the board has been underdogs playing on the road with a 62.2 winning percentage ATS.

Betting the NFL total line in those same games still favors the UNDER. The total has stayed UNDER 55.1% of the time. 

Underdogs and UNDERs play right into the strong suit of online sportsbooks since the betting public always has a strong lean towards favorites and OVER in the total line. The Oddsmakers continue to adjust accordingly but there is still value to be found taking the points while betting on a lower score than expected.

All season long, I have been posting my Top 5 NFL total line bets at the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com. 

Courtesy of that site, I have reprinted this Sunday's top five total line plays below:

Sunday, Nov. 15

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: OVER 52

The Falcons stay on the road after upsetting the New Orleans Saints 27-25 as 6.5-point underdogs. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game of the year with a stunning 30-16 loss to Denver.

The Cowboys will be looking the right the ship this Sunday but look for Atlanta to keep this game close. The total has gone OVER in four of the Falcons’ last five road games. Head-to-head, it has gone OVER in seven of the last eight meetings in Dallas.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: OVER 47.5

The Bills are another team coming off an ugly loss. One of the highest scoring teams in the NFL was held to just six points in the loss to Jacksonville. The total has gone OVER in the Jets’ last five games.

Buffalo could score 48 points on its own in this game. The total has gone OVER in nine of the Bills’ last 13 road games. It has gone OVER in six of New York’s last nine November games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: OVER 51.5

Both of these teams are coming off a Week 9 bye. Tampa Bay gave up 36 points to New Orleans in a loss its last time out. Washington brings a straight-up four game losing streak into this NFC clash.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Buccaneers’ last seven conference games. It has also gone OVER in four of Washington’s last five games against a team from the NFC. Given the week’s rest, look for Tampa Bay’s offense to have a big day.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: UNDER 44

Cleveland exploded for 41 points in Sunday’s road win against rival Cincinnati. However, the Browns scored a combined 41 points in their previous three matchups. New England only allowed six points in Sunday’s road win at Carolina.

This game has the making of a grinder between two AFC teams coming off strong defensive efforts. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Cleveland’s last seven games against a team from the AFC East.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: UNDER 51.5

It was not pretty, but Kansas City was able to get by Green Bay 13-7 after scoring a combined 23 points in its previous two games. The Raiders stumbled against the New York Giants last Sunday as three-point road favorites in a 23-16 loss.

The total has stayed UNDER in six of the previous 10 meetings in this AFC West clash. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Chiefs’ last five games overall. The betting line for this Sunday’s matchup could be set a bit too high given the current form of each team’s offense.

 

 

 

NFL Week 9 Top Bets on the Total Line

 As the 2021 NFL regular season approaches the halfway mark of the 18-week schedule, betting the UNDER on the total line has been a solid bet with a winning rate of 54.9%. 

Each and every week of the season, I come up with my Top 5 plays on Sunday's NFL total line for the popular sports betting site ScoresandStats.com.

Courtesy of this site, I have reprinted this Sunday's total line picks below:

Sunday, Nov. 7

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: UNDER 45.5

Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to Carolina heading into another key NFC South matchup. New Orleans is flying high after upsetting Tampa Bay as a home underdog. The total has gone OVER in three of the Saints’ last four games.

This could be a lower scoring game than expected. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings between these division rivals. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in New Orleans.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: UNDER 46

This should be a tough, hard fought battle between two AFC North rivals coming off a bad loss. Cleveland has lost three of its last four games scoring fewer than 17 points in each of its last three outings.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Browns’ last six games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of Cincinnati’s last seven matchups. With each team in desperate need of a win, look for defense to dictate play in this divisional showdown.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: OVER 45.5

The Texans rallied to make last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams competitive in the final score. However, they are now 1-7 straight-up on the year. Miami’s losing streak reached seven games with the loss to Buffalo.

Something has to give in this one. While neither team’s offense is all that exciting, they should be able to put points on the board given just how bad both these teams have played on defense. The total has gone OVER in five of Houston’s last seven conference games.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: UNDER 47

The Cardinals are coming off last Thursday’s loss to Green Bay. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. San Francisco snapped a four-game losing streak by outscoring Chicago 33-22 in Week 8.

The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two NFC West rivals. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the Cardinals’ last six conference games and in four of San Francisco’s last five games against a NFC team.

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: OVER 50.5

The Chargers have lost their last two games while giving up a combined 61 points. Philadelphia just played its best game of the season in a 44-6 rout over Detroit. The total has gone OVER in four of the Eagles’ last six games.

Neither of these teams have played consistent on defense which should lead to quite a few points being scored in Sunday’s inter-conference clash. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chargers’ last 15 games in Week 9 of the season. It has gone OVER in seven of Philadelphia’s last eight games against a team from the AFC.